| Last updated: September 2005
Volume 52, Special Issue
On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present ForecastsStanley Engerman
Full Text of this Article (PDF 92K)
Abstract: The topic of this paper has been inspired by something
of particular interest to Michael Mussa, something to which he made
major and important contributions while at the IMF. The biannual World
Economic Outlook, published since the 1980s under the auspices of the
Research Department, has, as its purpose, the provision of "analysis
and projections . . . [as] integral elements of the IMF's surveillance
of economic developments and policies in its member countries, developments
in international financial markets, and the global economic system."
In policy-oriented institutions (and in most businesses and individual
decision making), policymaking decisions are often guided by projections
and forward-looking indicators.
[JEL B10, B20]