An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Laure Redifer, visited Kigali from October 19-November 2, 2016 to carry out discussions with the
Rwandan authorities on the sixth review of their economic and financial program supported by the IMF’s Policy Support Instrument (PSI)
[1]
, and the first review of policies supported by the IMF’s Stand-by Credit Facility (SCF).
[2]
Ms. Redifer issued the following statement at the end of the visit:
“The IMF team reached staff-level agreement with the government, subject to approval by IMF Management and the Executive Board, on policies that could
support completion of the sixth and first reviews of Rwanda’s PSI- and SCF-supported programs, respectively. The Executive Board is scheduled to consider
the reviews in January 2017.
“Rwanda’s economic performance remains strong, with GDP growth of 6.5 percent in the first half of 2016. Growth projections for the year remain at 6
percent, driven by services activity, with somewhat lower growth in agriculture due to the recent drought, and a contraction in manufacturing/construction
following the end of a recent investment boom. 12-month consumer price inflation has risen in recent months to about 6 percent, due mainly to higher food
prices and, to a lesser extent, higher import prices following recent depreciation of the Rwandan franc.
“The main near-term objective of the current programs is to respond to adverse global developments, most notably commodity prices, which has led to growing
external imbalances, resulting in pressure on the Rwandan franc and the banking system’s foreign exchange reserves. To address external imbalances, short
term adjustment policies have been put in place, comprised of: continued exchange rate adjustment, resulting in Rwandan franc depreciation of about 9
percent so far in 2016; modest containment of new public spending to protect priority spending while avoiding a spike in the fiscal deficit despite recent
shortfalls of external financing; and a more prudent monetary policy stance, consistent with less expansive private sector credit growth. IMF staff agreed
with the government’s assessment that longer term policies should help restore external sustainability. These include accelerating policies to support
larger and more diverse exports and promoting domestic production of certain products currently imported, through the recent “Made in Rwanda” campaign.
“Performance under the program has been strong, with almost all program targets set through end-June 2016 being achieved. Nascent signs suggest that
adjustment policies are proving successful at reducing the trade deficit for goods and services, further abetted by the recent completion of several large
public investment projects. Although these developments are likely to contain growth at a still-robust 6 percent through 2017, by reducing external
imbalances they should help maintain official foreign exchange reserves coverage at adequate levels. IMF staff welcome the early and decisive actions
already taken by the government, which will help to avoid a more serious situation. These policies should thereby help safeguard medium term growth
prospects -- around 7 percent –by avoiding potentially harsher adjustment policies that are more disruptive to growth. Depending upon weather and
agriculture, inflation is expected to get back toward the government’s medium term 5 percent target.
“To further support program objectives, the government plans to implement measures aimed at deepening financial market activity and improving effectiveness
of monetary policy are welcomed. Moreover, measures to strengthening domestic revenue collection and enhance budget execution reporting for the purposes of
budgetary planning should be beneficial.”
The mission met with Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Claver Gatete, Governor of the National Bank of Rwanda, John Rwangombwa, Minister of Trade,
Industry and East African Community Affairs, François Kanimba, Minister of Gender and Family Promotion, Esperance Nyirasafari, Minister of Infrastructure,
James Musoni, Members of the Parliament Budget Commission, and other senior government officials, private sector representatives, and development partners.
The team thanks the various interlocutors for the collaborative and candid discussions.
[1]
Rwanda’s PSI-supported program was approved by the IMF Executive Board on December 2, 2013 (see Press Release No.13/483). The PSI is an instrument of the IMF designed for
countries that do not need balance of payments financial support. The PSI helps countries design effective economic programs that, once approved by
the IMF's Executive Board, signal to donors, multilateral development banks, and markets the Fund's endorsement of a member's policies. Details of
Rwanda’s current PSI are available at www.imf.org/rwanda.
[2]
Rwanda’s SCF-supported program was approved by the IMF Executive Board on June 8, 2016 (see Press Release No.16/270). The SCF provides financing to
low-income countries on concessional terms. For more details see http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/scf.htm.
