Policy Papers

Are Fund Staff Projections of Debt More Optimistic Under Program Contexts?

Publication Date:

November 9, 2005

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

This note examines whether projections made in the context of a Fund-supported program are systematically more optimistic than those done for surveillance cases. Of particular interest in this regard is the assessment of external debt sustainability, as this underlies the "capacity to repay the Fund" analysis. Accordingly, this note examines debt projections over the period 1990-2004, with data for transition countries beginning in 1995.

Series:

Policy Papers

Subject:

Debt sustainability analysis Exchange rate policy surveillance External debt Fund-supported adjustment programs