How Large Was the the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications

Author/Editor:

Evgeny Gavrilenkov ; Vincent Koen

Publication Date:

December 1, 1994

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The divergence between production and consumption indicators in Russia suggests that the magnitude of the output collapse in the course of the transition is overstated by the official statistics. Alternative estimates for real GDP are derived, which reconcile the official production and consumption data. Based on cautious assumptions, real GDP appears to have declined cumulatively by no more than one third rather than by one half. The drop in household welfare is much smaller still, as the output mix shifts and deadweight losses are sharply reduced.

Series:

Working Paper No. 1994/154

Subject:

Consumption Household consumption Income National accounts

English

Publication Date:

December 1, 1994

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451921847/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1541994

Pages:

38

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org