Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2002/131
Subject:
Education Exports Human capital International trade Labor Production Total factor productivity
English
Publication Date:
August 1, 2002
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451855296/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA1312002
Pages:
37
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