Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through: Evidence from a New Global Retail Fuel Price Database

Author/Editor:

Kangni R Kpodar ; Chadi Abdallah

Publication Date:

December 23, 2016

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on average, a one cent increase in crude oil prices per liter translates into a 1.2 cent increase in the retail gasoline price at peak level six months after the shock. However, the estimates vary significantly across country groups, ranging from about 0.5 cent in MENA countries to two cents in advanced economies. The results also show that positive oil price shocks have a larger impact than negative price shocks on the retail gasoline price. Finally, the paper underscores the importance of the new dataset in refining estimates of the fiscal cost of incomplete pass-through.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2016/254

Subject:

Commodities Energy subsidies Expenditure Fuel prices Gasoline Inflation Oil prices Prices

English

Publication Date:

December 23, 2016

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475563221/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2016254

Pages:

32

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