On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

Author/Editor:

Deren Unalmis ; Ibrahim Unalmis ; Filiz D Unsal

Publication Date:

December 1, 2009

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2009/285

Subject:

Inflation Labor productivity Oil Oil prices Public enterprises

English

Publication Date:

December 1, 2009

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451874303/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2009285

Pages:

28

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