IMF Working Papers

Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices

Author/Editor:

Franziska L Ohnsorge ; Marcin Wolski ; Yuanyan S Zhang

Publication Date:

May 9, 2014

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

We create a network of bilateral correlations of changes in sovereign bond yields and individual bank equity price changes since 2000. We extract some stylized facts from this network of asset price correlations and document the clear differences in asset price correlations between safe havens and non-safe havens: safe havens, as commonly defined, have higher sovereign-sovereign, bank-bank, and bank-sovereign correlations than nonsafe havens. In a simple shock propagation model, we illustrate how these higher correlations may turn safe havens into shock propagators. While we discuss safe havens as a group, we document how the US is in a category of its own, differing significantly from the other countries including Switzerland or Japan. Separately, we find that feedback loops amplify shocks, and those emanating from bank stress more than those emanating from sovereign stress.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2014/081

Subject:

Asset prices Banking Bond yields Financial crises Financial institutions Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 Prices Sovereign bonds Stocks