Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

Author/Editor:

Allan Dizioli ; Benjamin L Hunt ; Wojciech Maliszewski

Publication Date:

November 8, 2016

Electronic Access:

Free Full Text (PDF file size is 666 KB).Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

Series:

Working Paper No. 16/212

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

November 8, 2016

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475552225/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2016212

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

33

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