Wild or Tamed?: India’s Potential Growth

Author/Editor:

Hiroko Oura

Publication Date:

September 1, 2007

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

With India's GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the debate about whether India is overheating revolves mainly about whether growth is above potential-that is, whether the economy is exceeding its "speed limit." This paper attempts to shed light on this debate by providing up-to-date projections of India's potential growth, including by clarifying differences in underlying assumptions used by various researchers that lead to a range of estimates. Estimates of potential growth on this basis range from 7.4 percent to 8.1 percent for 2006/07, and about 8 percent for the medium term. The medium-term potential estimates have risks on both sides: productivity gains and investment could be volatile, but determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2007/224

Subject:

Growth accounting Human capital Labor Productivity Total factor productivity

English

Publication Date:

September 1, 2007

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451867886/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2007224

Pages:

16

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