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Projected % Change
   2014  2015
Real GDP 1.7 3.0
Source: World Economic Outlook Update (July 2014)

United States: Financial Position in the Fund


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United States and the IMF
Updated August 14, 2014

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Staff Papers
December 05, 2003 -- IMF Staff Papers - Volume 50, Number 3, 2003 - The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States by Ashoka Mody And Mark P. Taylor
Previous studies find that the interest rate term spread predicts real U.S. economic activity. We show that this relationship breaks down for the 1990s and suggest that its earlier success was due to high and volatile inflation. We find, however, that the high-yield spread (HYS) between 'junk bond' and government bond yields predicts real activity during the 1990s--especially high levels of the HYS. We also find that the HYS works through both the demand and the supply side of the economy. We interpret our findings as supportive of a financial accelerator mechanism. [JEL E33, E44]
December 31, 2001 -- IMF Staff Papers - Volume 48, Number 3, 2001 - How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets? by Vivek Arora and Martin Cerisola
This paper quantifies the impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. Specifically, the paper explores empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, country-specific fundamentals, and conditions in global capital markets. While country-specific fundamentals are important in explaining fluctuations in country risk, the stance and predictability of U.S. monetary policy are also important for stabilizing capital flows and capital market conditions in emerging markets.