At the invitation of the Ministry of Statistics and Analysis (Minstat), the Ministry of Finance (MoF), and the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB), the mission team from the IMF's Statistics Department headed by Mr. Gerard Raymond worked in Minsk during March 23 - April 7, 2004. The mission met with the Minister of Statistics and Analysis, the Minister of Finance, the First Deputy Chairman of the NBRB, as well as with officials from these agencies involved in preparation of macroeconomic and financial statistics. The mission prepared a draft Report on Observance of Standards and Codes data module (ROSC— see www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sc.htm for information on ROSC in general and www.imf.org/external/np/rosc/2003/030703.pdf for data ROSC in particular) and conducted a preliminary review of the Republic of Belarus' observance of the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS— see www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/data.htm).

The mission is aware of the importance attached in the Republic of Belarus to forecasts made by the authorities about various macroeconomic indicators, including economic growth (measured by the Gross Domestic Product) and inflation (measured by indices such as the consumer price index). These forecasts are frequently interpreted as government's targets. The purpose of the data module ROSC is to assess the quality of the collection, compilation, and dissemination practices of official statistics in the fields of national accounts, prices, fiscal statistics, monetary statistics, and the balance of payments. The data ROSC does not concern itself with forecasts or targets, nor with how the actual official statistics compare with them.

In applying the IMF's Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), the mission concluded that the Belarusian statistics has several strengths, notably high level of professionalism of the staff of all the agencies. The mission also acknowledged that the quality of the Republic of Belarus' macroeconomic statistics has significantly improved in a number of areas in the last few years. All datasets are at various stages of meeting internationally accepted methodological guidelines and some datasets get high marks for accuracy and reliability. Most datasets are generally internally and over time consistent and available on a timely basis with good frequency. The monetary and balance of payments statistics are readily and conveniently available to the public.

The users' survey undertaken by the mission indicates that the quality of sources and methods are frequently unclear and there is a room for improvement in many areas. There are widespread concerns regarding the accuracy and reliability of actual data produced, for example, for GDP and industrial and agricultural sectors. It also needs to be recognized that, even if internationally recognized methodologies are applied, as long as the basic inputs used in the statistical process are distorted, outputs will be also distorted. All statistical agencies in the Republic of Belarus should therefore further enhance their assessment of data inputs and validation procedures to increase users' confidence in official statistics.

Earlier this year, a Resolution of the Council of Ministers expressed the Republic of Belarus' intention to subscribe to the SDDS. A preliminary review by the mission of the observance of the SDDS has concluded that the Republic of Belarus meets most requirements for coverage, periodicity and timeliness for almost all SDDS categories. The exceptions include (1) the timeliness of national accounts and (2) the availability of data template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity (reserve template). Once the authorities would have completed the necessary preparatory work to meet these requirements, the IMF's Statistics Department stands ready to launch a mission aiming at assisting the Republic of Belarus with subscription to the SDDS.