People's Republic of China and the IMF

IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2003—
(China excerpt)

In China, the expectation remains that SARS will constitute a temporary shock, with no lasting impact on the medium-term growth outlook, and activity is likely to rebound from the third quarter, helped by continued strong investment and rapid credit expansion, including for consumer lending. The strength of the external position, the desirability of gearing monetary policy more toward domestic stabilization objectives, and the need to facilitate adjustment to structural changes over the medium term underscore the importance of moving gradually to greater exchange rate flexibility. Fiscal consolidation remains a key objective for the medium term, given the sizable contingent liabilities associated with banking weaknesses, pension reform costs, and the need to improve the social safety net and health care. Banking reform, faster asset disposals by asset management companies, and restructuring and privitization of state-owned enterprises remain key structural reform priorities.

	2002	2003 Proj.	2004 Proj.
Real GDP1	8.0	7.5	7.5
Consumer Prices1	-0.8	0.8	1.5
Current Account Balance      US$ Billions      Percent of GDP	35.4 2.8	19.4 1.4	18.8 1.3
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, September 2003 1 Percentage change