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Financial Sector Assessment Program

Projected % Change
   2014  2015
Real GDP 5.6 6.4
Consumer Prices 7.8 7.5
Source: World Economic Outlook (October 2014)
Please refer to more recent PIN/Staff reports on this country for possible revisions.

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India and the IMF
Updated October 25, 2014

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Staff Papers
September 30, 2002 -- IMF Staff Papers - Volume 49, Number 3, 2002 - What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? by Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena
Which model best explains the 1991 currency crisis in India? Did real overvalua-tion contribute to the crisis? This paper seeks the answers through error correction models and by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate using a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The evidence indicates that overvaluation as well as current account deficits and investor confidence played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation. The ECM model is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model.