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   2017  2018
Real GDP 2.1 2.1
Source: World Economic Outlook Update (July 2017)

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United States and the IMF
Updated September 25, 2017

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Financial Market Update
July 16, 2012 -- Financial Market Update:
Risks to financial stability have increased since the April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). Sovereign yields in southern Europe have risen sharply amid further erosion of the investor base. Elevated funding and market pressures pose risks of further cuts in peripheral euro area credit. The measures agreed at the recent European Union (EU) leaders’ summit provide significant steps to address the immediate crisis. Aside from supportive monetary and liquidity policies, the timely implementation of the recently agreed measures, together with further progress on banking and fiscal unions, must be a priority. Uncertainties about the asset quality of banks’ balance sheets must be resolved quickly, with capital injections and restructurings where needed. Growth prospects in other advanced countries and emerging markets have also weakened, leaving them less able to deal with spillovers from the euro area crisis or to address their own home-grown fiscal and financial vulnerabilities. Uncertainties on the fiscal outlook and federal debt ceiling in the United States present a latent risk to financial stability. Text also available in: عربي; 中文; Español; Français; 日本語; Русский.
June 20, 2011 -- Financial Market Update:
Since the publication of the April 2011 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), financial risks have risen for three reasons. First, while a multi-speed global recovery remains the base case, downside risks to this baseline have increased. Second, concern about debt sustainability and support for adjustment efforts in Europe’s periphery is leading to market pressures and worries about potential contagion. Political risks are also raising questions about medium term fiscal adjustment in a few advanced countries, notably, the United States and Japan. Third, notwithstanding some recent pullback in risk appetite, the prolonged period of low interest rates may push investors into riskier assets in a “search for yield.” This trend has the potential to build financial imbalances for the future, particularly in some emerging markets. Against these tensions, deep-seated challenges remain. Although there has been progress, improvements in financial system robustness have been insufficient so far. Markets may lose patience and become disorderly if political developments derail momentum on fiscal consolidation and financial repair and reform. Given these risks, policymakers need to accelerate actions to address long-standing financial vulnerabilities as outlined in the GFSR, before the window of opportunity to do so closes.
Text also available in: عربي; 中文; Español; Français; 日本語;
December 27, 2006 -- Financial Market Update:
The September 2006 Global Financial Stability Report presented a baseline scenario of solid global growth, contained inflation, and continued financial stability. However, it reported that risks were tilted to the downside. Growth could slow more sharply if the U.S. housing market were to weaken rapidly; inflation could spike, possibly reflecting rising energy prices; and a disorderly unwind of global imbalances remained a threat. Developments since then have been broadly in line with the baseline scenario. Market sentiment has gravitated toward a central scenario for a benign slowdown which keeps inflationary pressures contained. But downside risks remain and there have been changes in underlying financial conditions that warrant continued vigilance. PDF File Size: 465Kb
December 09, 2005 -- Financial Market Update:
Since the release of the September 2005 Global Financial Stability Report, financial conditions in mature and emerging markets have remained favorable, supported by expectations for sustained and broadening global growth, still abundant liquidity, and a continuing investor search for yield. Nevertheless, risks to financial stability remain, especially as interest rate and credit cycles turn and global liquidity is withdrawn. Those emerging markets with structural vulnerabilities could be stressed. In mature markets, markets for leveraged credit instruments could act to amplify reaction to specific credit events, while sub-prime segments of the mortgage markets, particularly in the United States, may be exposed by a fall in housing prices. Global imbalances remain a risk that could lead to disorderly adjustment of financial asset prices even though this remains a low probability event given the robustness of capital flows into the United States. PDF File Size: 521Kb
June 29, 2005 -- Financial Market Update:
Financial markets have produced some unexpected developments so far in 2005. The dollar has appreciated despite a growing U.S. current account deficit, and long-term interest rates have fallen despite increases in short-term policy rates. The decline in long-term yields reflects more moderate expectations for growth and inflation, as well as a shift in long-term investors' preferences towards fixed-income assets. With credit spreads in corporate and emerging debt markets at low levels, the search for yield is increasingly providing incentives for financial market participants to move out the credit spectrum towards riskier assets, and to try to enhance returns through use of complex financial instruments such as credit derivatives. PDF File Size: 491Kb
November 30, 2004 -- Financial Market Update:
Low yields and low volatility have been the hallmarks of major financial markets throughout much of the year. This combination has encouraged investors to take risk, especially in the credit markets, leading to low credit spreads and a very receptive environment for new emerging market bond issuance. However, the combination of low short-term interest rates and low bond market volatility has encouraged leveraged positions in the credit markets, raising the risk that credit spreads have been unduly compressed. Moreover, increased concerns over the heavy reliance of the United States on continued capital inflows to finance its large external current account deficit have resulted in a decline of the dollar. PDF File Size: 612Kb
June 28, 2004 -- Financial Market Update:
Changing expectations for the pace and timing of the U.S. tightening cycle have had a profound effect on global investor sentiment, positioning, asset prices, and credit spreads both this year and last. Since early 2004, the prospect of higher short-term interest rates has made investors more cautious and triggered deleveraging across a wide range of markets. This process has been orderly without posing a threat to financial stability or financial intermediaries. PDF File Size: 372Kb
January 07, 2004 -- Financial Market Update:
Ample liquidity in main financial centers and improved market confidence spur rally in corporate and emerging market bonds through mid-May. Concerns about U.S. dollar overshooting and uncertain prospects for global growth pose risks. Emerging bond market has benefited from a global quest for yield that has compressed spreads to quite low levels. Primary issuance, however, has lagged earlier years. Rebound in global growth needed to sustain recent improvements in credit quality and financial strength. PDF File Size: 367Kb