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WEO Data Forum > Inflation Estimation: Start of estimations, data used? (Re:Inflation Forecasts / Estimation)


 
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DavidWeiss Inflation Estimation: Start of estimations, data used? (Re:Inflation Forecasts / Estimation)
This is a follow up to the answer given in "Inflation Forecasts / Estimation" (http://www.imf.org/external/dforum/ListMessages.aspx?messageid=859&forumid=13)

What does this mean?

On the country-level, the dataset contains a "Estimates Start After" column. What does this exactly mean? If for Bangladesh's Inflation rate the "Estimates Start After" column contains "2006", does it mean that values for 2007 and 2008 are estimations based on 2006 data?

There are no "Estimates Start After" greater than 2006. 99% are from 2006, some are even older estimates (2005, 2002). Can you please elaborate on that.

Thank you.

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Original post:
Inflation Forecasts / Estimation
Inflation data: Are the numbers of 2006,7,8 estimates? If yes, when i.e. with what kind of data are these estimates made, when are they calculated?

And, specifically for the newest estimate (2008): Is the trend for highler inflation rates on the global level incorporated into the estimate? 6/30/2008 9:16:56 AM
WEOmoderator RE: Inflation Forecasts / Estimation
Thank you for your question.
The WEO publication assumes that the "estimates" start in the current year. For the October 2007 database, forecasts start in 2007. For the April 2008 database, forecasts start in 2008. This is an assumption because the year when projections start depends on the country. For country-level data, shaded cells in the final table of your query are "estimates/forecasts." Projections from the WEO database are based on the information gathered by the IMF country desk officers in the context of their missions to the countries and ongoing analysis of the evolving situation in member countries; projections are staff estimates. Please see, here.

The FAQ for the online WEO database contains more information, Please see here.

Mandy 6/30/2008 11:41:50 AM
7/4/2008 9:48:07 AM
WEOmoderator RE: Inflation Estimation: Start of estimations, data used? (Re:Inflation Forecasts / Estimation)
Data for years before and including the "Estimates Start After" year are generally those reported by national authorities. Some countries have longer reporting lags for some series, which explains "Estimate Start After" of 2002-2005. Data for years after "Estimates Start After" are projections made by IMF staff.

Best,

Mandy
7/7/2008 11:44:19 AM
WEOmoderator RE: Inflation Estimation: Start of estimations, data used? (Re:Inflation Forecasts / Estimation)
Data for years before and including the "Estimates Start After" year are generally those reported by national authorities. Some countries have longer reporting lags for some series, which explains "Estimate Start After" of 2002-2005. Data for years after "Estimates Start After" are projections made by IMF staff.

Hope this helps.

Mandy
8/21/2008 11:01:49 AM