Jonathan David Ostry
Last Updated: March 26, 2013
Jonathan D. Ostry is Deputy Director of the Research Department (RES) at the International Monetary Fund. His current responsibilities include leading staff teams on: IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercises on global systemic macrofinancial risks; vulnerabilities exercises for advanced and emerging market countries; multilateral exchange rate surveillance, including the work of CGER, the Fund’s Consultative Group of Exchange Rates, and EBA, the External Balance Assessment; international financial architecture and reform of the IMF’s lending toolkit; capital account management (capital controls and prudential tools to manage capital inflows) and financial globalization issues; fiscal sustainability issues; and country insurance. Past positions include leading the division that produces the IMF’s flagship multilateral surveillance publication, the World Economic Outlook, and leading country teams on Australia, Japan, New Zealand and Singapore. Mr. Ostry is the author/editor of a number of books on international macro policy issues, and numerous articles in scholarly journals. He holds undergraduate degrees from the University of Oxford (Balliol College) and Queen’s University (Canada), and graduate degrees from the London School of Economics (M.Sc., 1984) and the University Chicago (Ph.D., 1988).
Email: jostry@imf.org
Education:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Chicago, 1988
M.A., Oxford University, 1988
M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1984
B.A., Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Oxford University, 1983
B.A. (with Distinction), Economics, Queen’s University, 1981
Previous Experience:
International Monetary Fund, Research Department:
Deputy Director, Research Department, 2006-
Senior Advisor, Research Department, 2004-06
Assistant Director (headed the World Economic Studies division which produces the semi-
annual World Economic Outlook), 2002-03
International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Department:
Assistant Director/Division Chief/Advisor, 1998-2002 (led country teams on Japan, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand)
Deputy Division Chief/Senior Economist (Thailand desk), 1995–98
International Monetary Fund, Research and European Departments:
Economist (RES), 1988-89 & 1990-95, Economist (EUR), 1989–90
University of Chicago: Department of Economics, Instructor, 1987–88
Awards and Honors:
IMF Recognition Award for work on Management of Capital Flows, 2013
IMF Recognition Award for the Reform of Nonconcessional Financing Facilities, 2010
Listed in Who's Who in Economics, 2003
Pew Fellow, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1986–88
University of Chicago Doctoral Fellowships, 1984–88
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Doctoral Fellowships, 1984–88
Mackenzie King Fellowship, University of Chicago, 1984
Commonwealth Scholarship, London School of Economics, 1983–84
Commonwealth Scholarship, Oxford University, 1981–83
Undergraduate Medallist, Queen’s University, 1981
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account, Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/10, September 07, 2012
Two Targets, Two Instruments: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies, Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/1, February 29, 2012
Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s, Working Paper No. 12/34, January 01, 2012
Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?, Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/8, April 08, 2011
Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?, Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/6, April 05, 2011
Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System, Occasional Paper No. 270, March 15, 2011
Fiscal Space, Staff Position Note No. 2010/11, September 01, 2010
Fiscal Space, Staff Position Note No. 2010/11, September 01, 2010
Macrofinancial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies, August 25, 2010
Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls, Staff Position Note No. 2010/4, February 19, 2010
Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls, Staff Position Note No. 2010/4, February 19, 2010
Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries, Occasional Paper No. 268, October 15, 2009
Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries, Staff Position Note No. 2009/08, April 23, 2009
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 264, December 16, 2008
A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality, Working Paper No. 08/236, October 01, 2008
Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies, Occasional Paper No. 261, April 07, 2008
What Makes Growth Sustained?, Working Paper No. 08/59, March 01, 2008
Country Insurance: The Role of Domestic Policies, Occasional Paper No. 254, April 10, 2007
The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints, Working Paper No. 07/52, March 01, 2007
International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?, Working Paper No. 07/56, March 01, 2007
Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach, Working Paper No. 06/67, March 01, 2006
Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention, Working Paper No. 05/206, November 01, 2005
Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries, Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/6, October 01, 2005
Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?, Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/5, April 01, 2005
Japan's Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, February 13, 2003
Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries - Are they a Problem?, Working Paper No. 97/51, April 01, 1997
Does the Exchange Regime Matter for Inflation and Growth?, Economic Issues No. 2, September 12, 1996
Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows Within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements, Working Paper No. 95/142, December 01, 1995
Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?, Working Paper No. 95/121, November 01, 1995
Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle -Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, Working Paper No. 95/3, January 01, 1995
Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation, Working Paper No. 94/136, November 01, 1994
Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry, Working Paper No. 94/80, June 01, 1994
Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 94/8, January 01, 1994
Selective Government Interventions and Economic Growth - A Survey of the Asian Experience and its Applicability to New Zealand, Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/17, November 02, 1993
Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 93/70, August 01, 1993
Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?, Working Paper No. 93/34, April 01, 1993
Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/2, February 08, 1993
Structural and Macroeconomic Determinants of the Output Decline in Poland: 1990-91, Working Paper No. 92/86, October 01, 1992
Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account, Working Paper No. 92/72, September 01, 1992
External Shocks and Inflation in Developing Countries Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule, Working Paper No. 92/75, September 01, 1992
The Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: The Cases of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania, Working Paper No. 92/59, July 01, 1992
Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 91/100, October 01, 1991
Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor?, Working Paper No. 91/68, July 01, 1991
Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 91/29, March 01, 1991
Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 91/3, January 01, 1991
Books
Macro-Financial Linkages, with Chris Crowe, Simon Johnson and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds), (International Monetary Fund, 2010).
Japan’s Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, with Tim Callen (eds.), (International Monetary Fund, 2003).
Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics, Second Edition, with Thomas Krueger and Chi-Wa Yuen (MIT Press, 1996).
Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics, with Thomas Krueger (MIT Press, 1993).
Articles
Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union, with Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 34, pp. 131-163.
Managing Capital Inflows: Old and New Debates in The Great Recession: Lessons for Central Bankers , edited by Stanley Fischer et al. (MIT Press, 2013).
Good Money, Bad Money: The Effects of Large Capital Inflows and the Conditions Under Which Capital Controls Might Be Justified in Shaping Globalization—New Trends in Foreign Direct Investment (Verlag Bertelsmann, 2012).
Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies, with co-authors, 2012, Economic Journal. Revised version of NBER Working Paper 16782, February 2011.
Dos Objetivos, Dos Instrumentos: Políticas Monetaria y Cambiaria en Economías de Mercados Emergentes, with co-authors, 2012, CEMLA Boletín, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 94-114.
Managing Capital Flows, 2012, Asian Development Review, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 82-88.
Tools for Managing Financial-Stability Risks from Capital Inflows, with co-authors, 2012, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 88, No. 2, pp. 407-421.
What Makes Growth Sustained?, with Andy Berg and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2012, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 98, No. 2, p. 149-166.
How Inequality Damages Economies, with Andrew G. Berg, Foreign Affairs, January 2012.
Capital Controls: When and Why? with Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2011, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 562-580.
IMF Policy Advice to Emerging Market Economies During the 2008-2009 Crisis: New Fund or New Fundamentals? with co-authors, 2011, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 2, No. 1.
Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints, with Simon Johnson and Arvind Subramanian, 2010, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp. 119-171.
Conseils aux Pays Emergents Sur La Crise Actuelle: Quoi de Neuf? Qu’est-ce qui a Changé? Pourquoi? with co-authors, 2009, Revue d’Économie Financière, No. 95, pp. 307-323.
International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy Responsible? with Enrique Mendoza, 2008, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 55, No. 6, pp. 1081-1093.
Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A ‘Fan-Chart’ Approach, with Oya Celasun and Xavier Debrun, 2006, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 401-425.
Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan? with Gauti Eggertsson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 2006.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Saving, and the Current Account, with Atish Ghosh, 1997, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 121-139.
Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements, with Tamim Bayoumi, 1997, Journal of African Economies, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 412-444.
Are Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries a Problem? in Macroeconomic Issues Facing ASEAN Countries (International Monetary Fund, 1997).
Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? with Atish Ghosh, Anne-Marie Gulde and Holger Wolf, NBER Working Paper 5874, January 1997.
Accounting for China’s Growth Performance, with Eduardo Borensztein, 1996, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), Vol. 86, No. 2, pp. 224-228.
Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, with Carmen Reinhart and Masao Ogaki, 1996, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 38-71.
Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in Eastern Europe, with Eduardo Borensztein, in Trade and Payments in Transforming Economies of Central and Eastern Europe, edited by D. Salvatore (North Holland, 1996).
Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation, with Joaquim Levy, IMF Staff Papers, 1995. Reprinted in France: Financial and Real Sector Issues (International Monetary Fund, 1995) edited by Paul R. Masson.
The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach, with Atish R. Ghosh, 1995, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 305-333.
Common Causes or Structural Adjustment? Output Decline in Eastern Europe with Special Reference to Poland, with Eduardo Borensztein, in Output Decline in Eastern Europe: Unavoidable, External Influence or Homemade? (Kluwer Academic Press, 1995), edited by Janos Gacs, Robert Holzmann and George Winkler.
Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries, with Atish R. Ghosh, 1994, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 214-235.
Government Purchases and Relative Prices in a Two-Country World, 1994, Economic Record, Vol. 70, No. 209, pp. 149-61.
The Parallel Market Premium: Is It a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries? with Peter Montiel, 1994, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 55-75.
Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania, with Eduardo Borensztein and Dimitri Demekas, in Eastern Europe in Transition: From Recession to Growth? (World Bank, 1994) edited by Guillermo Calvo and Alan Gelb.
External Shocks and Inflation Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule, with Peter J. Montiel, in The Exchange Rate and the Economy (Bank of Canada, 1993).
An Empirical Analysis of the Output Decline in Three Eastern European Countries, with Eduardo Borensztein, 1993, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 1-31.
Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from the Developing Countries, with Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 495-517.
Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries, with Mohsin S. Khan, 1992, World Development, Vol. 20, No. 9, pp. 1325-1334.
Trade Restrictions with Imported Intermediate Inputs: A Comment, Journal of Development Economics, 1992, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 403-405.
Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor? with Peter J. Montiel, 1992, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 58-78.
An Empirical Evaluation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs, with Andrew K. Rose, 1992, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 63-79.
Terms of Trade Disturbances, Real Exchange Rates, and Welfare: The Role of Capital Controls and Labor Market Distortions, with Sebastian Edwards, 1992, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 20-34.
Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, with Peter J. Montiel, 1991, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 872-900.
Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Initial Trade Distortions and Imported Intermediate Inputs, 1991, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 447-479.
Tariffs, Real Exchange Rates, and the Trade Balance in a Two-Country World, 1991, European Economic Review, Vol. 35, No. 5, pp. 1127-1142.
Anticipated Protectionist Policies, Real Exchange Rates and the Current Account, with Sebastian Edwards, 1990, Journal of International Monetary and Finance, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 206-219.
Tariffs and the Current Account: The Role of Initial Distortions, 1990, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 348-356.
The Balance of Trade, Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Optimizing Framework, 1988, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 541-573. Reprinted in Monetaria, July–September 1989.
Other IMF Publications
Capital Controls: When Are Multilateral Considerations of the Essence? IMF Direct, September 2012.
The Case for a Managed Float under Inflation Targeting, IMF Direct, February 2012.
Equality and Efficiency: Trade-off or win-win? with Andrew G. Berg, Finance and Development, September 2011.
Warning! Inequality May Be Hazardous to Your Growth, with Andrew G. Berg, IMF Direct, April 2011.
Watch This (Fiscal) Space: Assessing Room for Fiscal Maneuver in Advanced Countries, IMF Direct, September 2010.
Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime, with Atish Ghosh, Finance and Development, December 2009.
Anticipating the Next Crisis, with Atish Ghosh and Natalia Tamirisa, Finance and Development, September 2009.
Who’s Driving Financial Globalization?, with Paolo Mauro, IMF Survey Magazine, August 2007.
Putting Financial Globalization to Work, with Paolo Mauro, IMF Survey Magazine, August 2007.
Levers for Growth: Policy Lessons from Earlier Bouts of Growth in Developing Countries, with Simon Johnson and Arvind Subramanian, Finance and Development, March 2006.
Saving and the Real Interest Rate in Developing Countries, with Carmen Reinhart, Finance and Development, December 1995.
Are Growth Strategies in East Asia Relevant for New Zealand? Finance and Development, March 1994.
Review of On Exchange Rates by Jeffrey A. Frankel, Finance and Development, December, 1993.
Targeting the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries, with Peter Montiel, Finance and Development, March 1993.
Review of Macroeconomic Policy, by Robert J. Barro, Finance and Development, March 1991.
Other/Non-IMF Publications
The Multilateral Approach to Capital Controls, with Olivier Blanchard, VoxEU, December 11, 2012.
Are Concerns About Spillovers from Policies that Affect Capital Flows Overdone? Financial Times, October 2, 2012.
On Inflation Targeting and Forex Intervention: Are Two Targets Better Than One? with Marcos Chamon, and Atish R. Ghosh, VoxEU, May 27, 2012.
Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s, with Atish R. Ghosh, and Charalambos Tsangarides, VoxEU, February 6, 2012.
Are there 'intelligent' capital controls?, East Asia Forum, June 2011.
Fiscal Space in Advanced Countries, with Atish R. Ghosh and Enrique G. Mendoza, VoxEU, March 8, 2011.
Instability from Rigidity: Dealing with the risks to global growth, with Simon Johnson, Japan Times, February 2008.
Surviving the Great Capital Flood, with Simon Johnson, Die Welt and South China Morning Post, November 2007.
Jonathan D. Ostry is Deputy Director of the Research Department (RES) at the International Monetary Fund. His current responsibilities include leading staff teams on: IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercises on global systemic macrofinancial risks; vulnerabilities exercises for advanced and emerging market countries; multilateral exchange rate surveillance, including the work of CGER, the Fund’s Consultative Group of Exchange Rates, and EBA, the External Balance Assessment; international financial architecture and reform of the IMF’s lending toolkit; capital account management (capital controls and prudential tools to manage capital inflows) and financial globalization issues; fiscal sustainability issues; and country insurance. Past positions include leading the division that produces the IMF’s flagship multilateral surveillance publication, the World Economic Outlook, and leading country teams on Australia, Japan, New Zealand and Singapore. Mr. Ostry is the author/editor of a number of books on international macro policy issues, and numerous articles in scholarly journals. He holds undergraduate degrees from the University of Oxford (Balliol College) and Queen’s University (Canada), and graduate degrees from the London School of Economics (M.Sc., 1984) and the University Chicago (Ph.D., 1988).
Email: jostry@imf.org
Education:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Chicago, 1988
M.A., Oxford University, 1988
M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1984
B.A., Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Oxford University, 1983
B.A. (with Distinction), Economics, Queen’s University, 1981
Previous Experience:
International Monetary Fund, Research Department:
Deputy Director, Research Department, 2006-
Senior Advisor, Research Department, 2004-06
Assistant Director (headed the World Economic Studies division which produces the semi-
annual World Economic Outlook), 2002-03
International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Department:
Assistant Director/Division Chief/Advisor, 1998-2002 (led country teams on Japan, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand)
Deputy Division Chief/Senior Economist (Thailand desk), 1995–98
International Monetary Fund, Research and European Departments:
Economist (RES), 1988-89 & 1990-95, Economist (EUR), 1989–90
University of Chicago: Department of Economics, Instructor, 1987–88
Awards and Honors:
IMF Recognition Award for work on Management of Capital Flows, 2013
IMF Recognition Award for the Reform of Nonconcessional Financing Facilities, 2010
Listed in Who's Who in Economics, 2003
Pew Fellow, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1986–88
University of Chicago Doctoral Fellowships, 1984–88
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Doctoral Fellowships, 1984–88
Mackenzie King Fellowship, University of Chicago, 1984
Commonwealth Scholarship, London School of Economics, 1983–84
Commonwealth Scholarship, Oxford University, 1981–83
Undergraduate Medallist, Queen’s University, 1981
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account, Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/10, September 07, 2012
Two Targets, Two Instruments: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies, Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/1, February 29, 2012
Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s, Working Paper No. 12/34, January 01, 2012
Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?, Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/8, April 08, 2011
Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?, Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/6, April 05, 2011
Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System, Occasional Paper No. 270, March 15, 2011
Fiscal Space, Staff Position Note No. 2010/11, September 01, 2010
Fiscal Space, Staff Position Note No. 2010/11, September 01, 2010
Macrofinancial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies, August 25, 2010
Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls, Staff Position Note No. 2010/4, February 19, 2010
Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls, Staff Position Note No. 2010/4, February 19, 2010
Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries, Occasional Paper No. 268, October 15, 2009
Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries, Staff Position Note No. 2009/08, April 23, 2009
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 264, December 16, 2008
A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality, Working Paper No. 08/236, October 01, 2008
Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies, Occasional Paper No. 261, April 07, 2008
What Makes Growth Sustained?, Working Paper No. 08/59, March 01, 2008
Country Insurance: The Role of Domestic Policies, Occasional Paper No. 254, April 10, 2007
The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints, Working Paper No. 07/52, March 01, 2007
International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?, Working Paper No. 07/56, March 01, 2007
Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach, Working Paper No. 06/67, March 01, 2006
Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention, Working Paper No. 05/206, November 01, 2005
Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries, Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/6, October 01, 2005
Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?, Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/5, April 01, 2005
Japan's Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, February 13, 2003
Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries - Are they a Problem?, Working Paper No. 97/51, April 01, 1997
Does the Exchange Regime Matter for Inflation and Growth?, Economic Issues No. 2, September 12, 1996
Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows Within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements, Working Paper No. 95/142, December 01, 1995
Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?, Working Paper No. 95/121, November 01, 1995
Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle -Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, Working Paper No. 95/3, January 01, 1995
Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation, Working Paper No. 94/136, November 01, 1994
Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry, Working Paper No. 94/80, June 01, 1994
Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 94/8, January 01, 1994
Selective Government Interventions and Economic Growth - A Survey of the Asian Experience and its Applicability to New Zealand, Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/17, November 02, 1993
Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 93/70, August 01, 1993
Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?, Working Paper No. 93/34, April 01, 1993
Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/2, February 08, 1993
Structural and Macroeconomic Determinants of the Output Decline in Poland: 1990-91, Working Paper No. 92/86, October 01, 1992
Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account, Working Paper No. 92/72, September 01, 1992
External Shocks and Inflation in Developing Countries Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule, Working Paper No. 92/75, September 01, 1992
The Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: The Cases of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania, Working Paper No. 92/59, July 01, 1992
Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 91/100, October 01, 1991
Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor?, Working Paper No. 91/68, July 01, 1991
Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 91/29, March 01, 1991
Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 91/3, January 01, 1991
Books
Macro-Financial Linkages, with Chris Crowe, Simon Johnson and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds), (International Monetary Fund, 2010).
Japan’s Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, with Tim Callen (eds.), (International Monetary Fund, 2003).
Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics, Second Edition, with Thomas Krueger and Chi-Wa Yuen (MIT Press, 1996).
Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics, with Thomas Krueger (MIT Press, 1993).
Articles
Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union, with Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 34, pp. 131-163.
Managing Capital Inflows: Old and New Debates in The Great Recession: Lessons for Central Bankers , edited by Stanley Fischer et al. (MIT Press, 2013).
Good Money, Bad Money: The Effects of Large Capital Inflows and the Conditions Under Which Capital Controls Might Be Justified in Shaping Globalization—New Trends in Foreign Direct Investment (Verlag Bertelsmann, 2012).
Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies, with co-authors, 2012, Economic Journal. Revised version of NBER Working Paper 16782, February 2011.
Dos Objetivos, Dos Instrumentos: Políticas Monetaria y Cambiaria en Economías de Mercados Emergentes, with co-authors, 2012, CEMLA Boletín, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 94-114.
Managing Capital Flows, 2012, Asian Development Review, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 82-88.
Tools for Managing Financial-Stability Risks from Capital Inflows, with co-authors, 2012, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 88, No. 2, pp. 407-421.
What Makes Growth Sustained?, with Andy Berg and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2012, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 98, No. 2, p. 149-166.
How Inequality Damages Economies, with Andrew G. Berg, Foreign Affairs, January 2012.
Capital Controls: When and Why? with Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2011, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 562-580.
IMF Policy Advice to Emerging Market Economies During the 2008-2009 Crisis: New Fund or New Fundamentals? with co-authors, 2011, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 2, No. 1.
Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints, with Simon Johnson and Arvind Subramanian, 2010, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp. 119-171.
Conseils aux Pays Emergents Sur La Crise Actuelle: Quoi de Neuf? Qu’est-ce qui a Changé? Pourquoi? with co-authors, 2009, Revue d’Économie Financière, No. 95, pp. 307-323.
International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy Responsible? with Enrique Mendoza, 2008, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 55, No. 6, pp. 1081-1093.
Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A ‘Fan-Chart’ Approach, with Oya Celasun and Xavier Debrun, 2006, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 401-425.
Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan? with Gauti Eggertsson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 2006.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Saving, and the Current Account, with Atish Ghosh, 1997, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 121-139.
Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements, with Tamim Bayoumi, 1997, Journal of African Economies, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 412-444.
Are Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries a Problem? in Macroeconomic Issues Facing ASEAN Countries (International Monetary Fund, 1997).
Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? with Atish Ghosh, Anne-Marie Gulde and Holger Wolf, NBER Working Paper 5874, January 1997.
Accounting for China’s Growth Performance, with Eduardo Borensztein, 1996, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), Vol. 86, No. 2, pp. 224-228.
Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, with Carmen Reinhart and Masao Ogaki, 1996, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 38-71.
Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in Eastern Europe, with Eduardo Borensztein, in Trade and Payments in Transforming Economies of Central and Eastern Europe, edited by D. Salvatore (North Holland, 1996).
Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation, with Joaquim Levy, IMF Staff Papers, 1995. Reprinted in France: Financial and Real Sector Issues (International Monetary Fund, 1995) edited by Paul R. Masson.
The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach, with Atish R. Ghosh, 1995, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 305-333.
Common Causes or Structural Adjustment? Output Decline in Eastern Europe with Special Reference to Poland, with Eduardo Borensztein, in Output Decline in Eastern Europe: Unavoidable, External Influence or Homemade? (Kluwer Academic Press, 1995), edited by Janos Gacs, Robert Holzmann and George Winkler.
Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries, with Atish R. Ghosh, 1994, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 214-235.
Government Purchases and Relative Prices in a Two-Country World, 1994, Economic Record, Vol. 70, No. 209, pp. 149-61.
The Parallel Market Premium: Is It a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries? with Peter Montiel, 1994, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 55-75.
Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania, with Eduardo Borensztein and Dimitri Demekas, in Eastern Europe in Transition: From Recession to Growth? (World Bank, 1994) edited by Guillermo Calvo and Alan Gelb.
External Shocks and Inflation Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule, with Peter J. Montiel, in The Exchange Rate and the Economy (Bank of Canada, 1993).
An Empirical Analysis of the Output Decline in Three Eastern European Countries, with Eduardo Borensztein, 1993, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 1-31.
Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from the Developing Countries, with Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 495-517.
Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries, with Mohsin S. Khan, 1992, World Development, Vol. 20, No. 9, pp. 1325-1334.
Trade Restrictions with Imported Intermediate Inputs: A Comment, Journal of Development Economics, 1992, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 403-405.
Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor? with Peter J. Montiel, 1992, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 58-78.
An Empirical Evaluation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs, with Andrew K. Rose, 1992, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 63-79.
Terms of Trade Disturbances, Real Exchange Rates, and Welfare: The Role of Capital Controls and Labor Market Distortions, with Sebastian Edwards, 1992, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 20-34.
Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, with Peter J. Montiel, 1991, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 872-900.
Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Initial Trade Distortions and Imported Intermediate Inputs, 1991, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 447-479.
Tariffs, Real Exchange Rates, and the Trade Balance in a Two-Country World, 1991, European Economic Review, Vol. 35, No. 5, pp. 1127-1142.
Anticipated Protectionist Policies, Real Exchange Rates and the Current Account, with Sebastian Edwards, 1990, Journal of International Monetary and Finance, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 206-219.
Tariffs and the Current Account: The Role of Initial Distortions, 1990, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 348-356.
The Balance of Trade, Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Optimizing Framework, 1988, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 541-573. Reprinted in Monetaria, July–September 1989.
Other IMF Publications
Capital Controls: When Are Multilateral Considerations of the Essence? IMF Direct, September 2012.
The Case for a Managed Float under Inflation Targeting, IMF Direct, February 2012.
Equality and Efficiency: Trade-off or win-win? with Andrew G. Berg, Finance and Development, September 2011.
Warning! Inequality May Be Hazardous to Your Growth, with Andrew G. Berg, IMF Direct, April 2011.
Watch This (Fiscal) Space: Assessing Room for Fiscal Maneuver in Advanced Countries, IMF Direct, September 2010.
Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime, with Atish Ghosh, Finance and Development, December 2009.
Anticipating the Next Crisis, with Atish Ghosh and Natalia Tamirisa, Finance and Development, September 2009.
Who’s Driving Financial Globalization?, with Paolo Mauro, IMF Survey Magazine, August 2007.
Putting Financial Globalization to Work, with Paolo Mauro, IMF Survey Magazine, August 2007.
Levers for Growth: Policy Lessons from Earlier Bouts of Growth in Developing Countries, with Simon Johnson and Arvind Subramanian, Finance and Development, March 2006.
Saving and the Real Interest Rate in Developing Countries, with Carmen Reinhart, Finance and Development, December 1995.
Are Growth Strategies in East Asia Relevant for New Zealand? Finance and Development, March 1994.
Review of On Exchange Rates by Jeffrey A. Frankel, Finance and Development, December, 1993.
Targeting the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries, with Peter Montiel, Finance and Development, March 1993.
Review of Macroeconomic Policy, by Robert J. Barro, Finance and Development, March 1991.
Other/Non-IMF Publications
The Multilateral Approach to Capital Controls, with Olivier Blanchard, VoxEU, December 11, 2012.
Are Concerns About Spillovers from Policies that Affect Capital Flows Overdone? Financial Times, October 2, 2012.
On Inflation Targeting and Forex Intervention: Are Two Targets Better Than One? with Marcos Chamon, and Atish R. Ghosh, VoxEU, May 27, 2012.
Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s, with Atish R. Ghosh, and Charalambos Tsangarides, VoxEU, February 6, 2012.
Are there 'intelligent' capital controls?, East Asia Forum, June 2011.
Fiscal Space in Advanced Countries, with Atish R. Ghosh and Enrique G. Mendoza, VoxEU, March 8, 2011.
Instability from Rigidity: Dealing with the risks to global growth, with Simon Johnson, Japan Times, February 2008.
Surviving the Great Capital Flood, with Simon Johnson, Die Welt and South China Morning Post, November 2007.