Email: dlaxton@imf.org

Personal WebPage: www.douglaslaxton.org

Email: dlaxton@imf.org

Personal WebPage: www.douglaslaxton.org

IMF Books and Working Papers:

GPM6 - The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions, Working Paper No. 13/87, April 10, 2013

Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model, Working Paper No. 13/55, February 27, 2013

The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology, Working Paper No. 12/109, May 01, 2012

Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter, Working Paper No. 10/285, December 01, 2010

To Starve or not to Starve the Beast?, Working Paper No. 10/199, September 01, 2010

Budget Consolidation: Short-Term Pain and Long-Term Gain, Working Paper No. 10/163, July 01, 2010

Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models, Working Paper No. 10/73, March 01, 2010

Structural Models in Real Time, Working Paper No. 10/56, March 01, 2010

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure, Working Paper No. 10/34, February 01, 2010

A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana, Working Paper No. 10/25, January 01, 2010

Inflation Targeting Pillars: Transparency and Accountability, Working Paper No. 09/262, December 01, 2009

Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits, Working Paper No. 09/255, November 01, 2009

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model, Working Paper No. 09/253, November 01, 2009

Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits, Working Paper No. 09/237, October 01, 2009

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis, Working Paper No. 09/214, September 01, 2009

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility, Working Paper No. 09/94, April 01, 2009

Chile's Structural Fiscal Surplus Rule: A Model-Based Evaluation, Working Paper No. 09/88, April 01, 2009

Simple, Implementable Fiscal Policy Rules, Working Paper No. 09/76, April 01, 2009

Why Inflation Targeting?, Working Paper No. 09/86, April 01, 2009

IT Framework Design Parameters, Working Paper No. 09/87, April 01, 2009

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model, Working Paper No. 09/85, April 01, 2009

Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT), Working Paper No. 09/65, March 01, 2009

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model, Working Paper No. 08/279, December 01, 2008

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices, Working Paper No. 08/280, December 01, 2008

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy, Working Paper No. 08/278, December 01, 2008

Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil, Working Paper No. 08/191, August 01, 2008

Why is Canada's Price Level So Predictable?, Working Paper No. 08/25, January 01, 2008

Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel, Working Paper No. 07/207, August 01, 2007

DSGE Modeling at the Fund: Applications and Further Developments, Working Paper No. 07/200, August 01, 2007

A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits, Working Paper No. 07/202, August 01, 2007

Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis--A How-To Guide, Working Paper No. 06/81, March 01, 2006

A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview, Working Paper No. 06/80, March 01, 2006

A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation, Working Paper No. 06/45, February 01, 2006

GEM: A New International Macroeconomic Model, Occasional Paper No. 239, November 30, 2004

Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in MULTIMOD, Working Paper No. 03/31, February 01, 2003

Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence from 17 Industrial Countries, Working Paper No. 02/220, December 01, 2002

The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan, Working Paper No. 01/186, November 01, 2001

The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices, Working Paper No. 01/14, February 01, 2001

Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility, Working Paper No. 01/7, January 01, 2001

Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies, Working Paper No. 00/126, July 01, 2000

International Spillovers of Macroeconomic Shocks - A Quantitative Exploration, Working Paper No. 00/101, June 01, 2000

Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty, Working Paper No. 99/75, May 01, 1999

Liberating Supply-Fiscal Policy and Technological Innovation in a Multicountry Model, Working Paper No. 98/95, June 01, 1998

Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland: A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor, Working Paper No. 97/23, March 01, 1997

Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemplyment Costs of Overheating, Working Paper No. 97/17, February 01, 1997

Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constrains: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence, Working Paper No. 96/140, December 01, 1996

Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States, Working Paper No. 96/111, October 01, 1996

A Robust and Efficient Method for Solving Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models, Working Paper No. 96/106, September 01, 1996

Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism - Forward-Looking Versus Myopic Policy Rules, Working Paper No. 95/75, August 03, 1995

Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus - Issues and Evidence, Working Paper No. 95/76, August 03, 1995

World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates, Working Paper No. 95/30, March 01, 1995

Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation - Evidence and Policy Implications, Working Paper No. 94/139, November 01, 1994

Other IMF Publications

United States Background Papers, IMF Staff Country Report, September, 1995.

Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications, IMF Staff Papers, June 1995.

Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus: Issues and Evidence, IMF Staff Papers, March, 1996.

Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, The United Kingdom and the United States, IMF Staff Papers, 1997.

MULTIMOD Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady-State Models, IMF Occasional Paper, 1998.

MULTIMOD Mark III: The Equations and Documentation, IMF Web Site, 1998.

Issues Relating to Inflation Targeting and the Bank of England’s Framework, in IMF Staff Country Report No. 00/106, 2000.

The Zero-Interest-Rate Floor and Its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan, in Japan’s Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, 2003.

GEM: A New International Macroeconomic Model, Occasional Paper, 2004.

Does Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Markets? Chapter 4 of the September 2005 World Economic Outlook, 2005.

Long-Term Inflation Expectations and Credibility, Box 4.2 in Chapter 4 of the September 2005 World Economic Outlook, 2005.

Monetary Policy Implications of Capital Account Volatility Under an Inflation Targeting Regime, in Czech Republic: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report, 2005.

Consequences of U.S. Fiscal Consolidation for the U.S. Current Account, in United States: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report, 2005.

How Will Global Imbalances Adjust? Appendix 1.2 of Chapter 1 of the September 2005 World Economic Outlook, 2005.

A Simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System for Israel: Structure and Applications in Israel: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report,2006.

How Will Global Imbalances Adjust? Box 1.3 of Chapter 1 of the September 2006 World Economic Outlook, 2006.

Understanding the Link Between Oil Prices and the World Economy, Box 1.2 in Chapter 1 of the April 2007 World Economic Outlook, 2007.

The Euro and New Member States, in IMF Staff Country Report, 2007.

Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy? Chapter 4 of the April 2007 World Economic Outlook, 2007.

Improved Macroeconomic Performance—Good Luck or Good Policies, Box 5.2 of Chapter 5 of the October 2007 World Economic Outlook, 2007.

Measuring Output Gaps, Box 1.1 of Chapter 1 of the October 2008 World Economic Outlook, 2008.

Assessing and Communicating Risks to the Global Outlook, Box 1.3 of Chapter 1 of the October 2008 World Economic Outlook, 2008.

When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work?, Box 2.1 of Chapter 2 of the April 2008 World Economic Outlook, 2008.

Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment, IMF Staff Papers, 2008.

Is Inflation Back? Commodity Prices and Inflation” Chapter 3 of the October 2008 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, 2008.

The effects of cutting taxes on gasoline, Box 6 of Chapter 2 of the October 2008 European Regional Economic Outlook, 2008.

The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of Adopting the Euro, IMF Staff Papers, 2008.

Monetary Policy Regimes and Commodity Prices, in Box 3.3 of Chapter 3 of the October 2008 World Economic Outlook, 2008.

South Asia: Illustrative Impact of an Abrupt Climate Shock, in Box 4.2 of Chapter 4 of the April 2008 World Economic Outlook, 2008.

The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of Adopting the Euro, IMF Staff Papers, 2008.

Monetary Policy Regimes and Commodity Prices, Box 3.3 of Chapter 3 of the October 2008 World Economic Outlook, 2008.

South Asia: Illustrative Impact of an Abrupt Climate Shock, Box 4.2 of Chapter 4 of the April 2008 World Economic Outlook, 2008.

Getting to Know the Global Economy Model and Its Philosophy, IMF Staff Papers, 2008.

Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool, Chapter 5 of the October 2008 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, 2008.

Vulnerabilities in Emerging Economies, Box 2.2 of Chapter 2 of the April 2009 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, 2009.

Assessing Deflation Risks in the G3 Economies, Box 1.1 of Chapter 1 of the April 2009 World Economic Outlook, 2009.

Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Term Costs of Fiscal Deficits, prepared for the 2009 Carnegie Rochester Conference, 2009.

Other/Non-IMF Publications

Government Debt in an Open Economy, Bank of Canada Technical Report, 1992.

Should the Change in the Gap Appear in the Phillips Curve?: Some Consequences of Mismeasuring Potential Output, Bank of Canada Working Paper, January 1992.

A Simple Multivariate Filter for the Measurement of Potential Output,” Bank of Canada Technical Report, June 1992.

Problems in Identifying Nonlinear Phillips Curves: Some Further Consequences of Mismeasuring Potential Output, Bank of Canada Working Paper, June 1993.

Is the Canadian Phillips Curve Non-Linear?, Bank of Canada Working Paper, July 1993.

Monetary Policy, Uncertainty and the Presumption of Linearity, August, 1993.

Uncertainty, Learning and Policy Credibility, Economic Behavior and Policy Choice Under Price Stability, Proceedings of a Conference held at the Bank of Canada, October, 1993.

Government Debt, Deficits, and the Business Cycle, C.D. Howe Book Deficit Reduction: What Gain, What Pain?, 1994.

The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model: The Steady-State Model, Bank of Canada Technical Report, January, 1995.

Solving MULTIMOD with First-Order and Newton-Based Techniques, University of Strathclyde Discussion Paper in Economic Modeling, October, 1996.

A Robust Method for Simulating Forward-Looking Models, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1998.

An Algorithm Competition: First-Order Techniques Versus Newton-Based Techniques, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1998.

Are simple monetary policy rules robust under model uncertainty or would following such rules risk a repeat of the types of monetary policy errors that have been made in the past? Some comments on Christiano and Gust (1998) and other recent research on the robustness of simple monetary policy rules, paper prepared for a Conference on General Equilibrium and Monetary Transmission hosted by De Nederlandsche Bank, November 5–6, 1998.

Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty, in International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, 1998.

World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1999.

Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty, International Tax and Public Finance, 1999.

Monetary Policy with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Credibility: Perspectives on Policy Rules and the Gains from Experimentation and Transparency, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Book on Monetary Policy and Uncertainty, 1999.

The U.S. Phillips Curve The Case for Asymmetry, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1999.

Inflation-Forecast Targeting and the Role of Macroeconomic Models, in Czech National Bank Book on Inflation Targeting in Transition Economies: The Case of the Czech Republic, 2000.

On Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System Designed to Support Inflation-Forecast-Targeting, Central Bank of Turkey Book on Inflation Targeting Experiences, 2000.

An Evaluation of Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in a Model with Capacity Constraints, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2001.

Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2001.

Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2001.

Real Interest Rates and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Indexed Bonds, Manchester School, 2002.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices, National Institute Economic Review, 2002.

The Czech National Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System, Czech National Bank Book, 2003.

Monetary Policy Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003.

Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment, ECB Working Paper, 2004.

Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment, NBER Working Paper, 2004.

Exchange Rate Regimes, International Linkages and the Macroeconomic Performance of the New Member States, ECB High Level Conference, November 2004.

Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing, NBER Working Paper, 2005.

A Simple Welfare-Based Monetary Policy Rule in an Estimated DSGE Model of the US Economy, ECB Working Paper, 2006.

Shocks, Monetary Rules: A Scenario Analysis for Japan, Journal of Japanese and International Economies, 2006.

Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? in Central Bank of Chile Book on The Experience of Emerging Markets, in Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting, 2007.

Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States, paper presented at a workshop on Issues in Measuring Potential Output, Ankara Turkey, 2007.

Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment,” NBER Working Paper, 2008.

Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? A Scenario Analysis, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008.

Optimal Price Setting and Inflation Inertia in a Rational Expectations Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008.

Does the Exchange Rate Belong in Monetary Policy Rules? New Answers from a DSGE Model with Endogenous Tradability and Trade Frictions, paper prepared for an ECB Conference on Globalization and the Macroeconomy, July 23–34, 2007.