M. Ayhan Kose
Last Updated: February 11, 2013
Ayhan Kose is Assistant to the Director in the IMF Research Department. He previously worked for the United States and Canada desks of the IMF Western Hemisphere Department. His research focuses on macro-financial linkages, global spillovers, financial globalization, business and financial cycles, and linkages between advanced and emerging economies. He has authored a number of policy-oriented papers on these topics. Technical versions of many of these papers have been published in leading academic journals, such as the American Economic Review, International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics, Journal of Development Economics, Economic Policy, and many others. He has also written articles for a variety of policy outlets, including the IMF World Economic Outlook, Finance & Development, Foreign Policy, Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook, and VoxEU. His research has been featured in various media outlets, including The Economist, New York Times, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, and others.
Email: akose@imf.org
Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pko65.html
Fluent In: Turkish.
Education:
1997: Ph.D. in Economics, H. B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa.
1992: B.S. in Industrial Engineering, Bilkent University, Ankara-Turkey.
Previous Experience:
2001-Present: International Monetary Fund; Assistant to the Director, Research Department (2009-present); Senior Economist, Research Department (2008-2009); Economist, Research Department and Western Hemisphere Department (2001-2008)
1997-2001: Brandeis University; Assistant Professor, Brandeis International Business School and Department of Economics
Refereed Activities:
Referee for numerous academic journals, publishing companies and research institutions.
Editorial Activities:
Co-Editor, IMF Economic Review, 2009-present; Editor, IMF Research Bulletin, 2008-present; Co-Editor, IMF Staff Papers, 2007-2010; Executive Editor, Journal of Asian Economics, 2008-present.
Work in progress:
Global Recessions and Recoveries; Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Crises; International Business and Financial Cycles
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants, Working Paper No. 13/38, February 06, 2013
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications, Working Paper No. 13/28, January 30, 2013
Regionalization vs. Globalization, Working Paper No. 13/19, January 22, 2013
Financial Cycles: What? How? When?, Working Paper No. 11/76, April 01, 2011
How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?, Working Paper No. 11/88, April 01, 2011
Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring, Working Paper No. 11/25, February 01, 2011
Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective, Working Paper No. 10/261, November 01, 2010
Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses, Working Paper No. 09/40, March 01, 2009
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 264, December 16, 2008
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?, Working Paper No. 08/274, December 01, 2008
Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?, Working Paper No. 08/242, October 01, 2008
Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?, Working Paper No. 08/143, June 01, 2008
Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations, Working Paper No. 07/280, December 01, 2007
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels, Working Paper No. 07/238, October 01, 2007
Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal, Working Paper No. 06/189, August 01, 2006
How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?, Working Paper No. 06/46, February 01, 2006
Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles, Working Paper No. 05/211, November 01, 2005
Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement?, Working Paper No. 05/204, October 01, 2005
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?, Working Paper No. 05/19, January 01, 2005
Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America, Working Paper No. 04/138, August 01, 2004
How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence, Working Paper No. 04/59, April 01, 2004
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration, Working Paper No. 03/246, December 01, 2003
Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence, Occasional Paper No. 220, September 03, 2003
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility, Working Paper No. 03/50, March 01, 2003
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?, Working Paper No. 03/27, January 01, 2003
Books
“Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses” with Stijn Claessens, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia, IMF Publications, forthcoming.
Articles
“Regionalization vs. Globalization,” with Hideaki Hirata and Christopher Otrok, Global Interdependence, Decoupling and Recoupling in Frank Westermann and Yin-Wong Cheung eds., MIT Press, forthcoming.
“Understanding Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses,” with Stijn Claessens, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia (Editors’ Introduction), Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, forthcoming.
“Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants” with Hideaki Hirata, Christopher Otrok, and Marco Terrones, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, in Francesco Giavazzi and Kenneth West eds., University of Chicago Press, forthcoming.
“Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications,” with Stijn Claessens, in Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia eds., IMF Publications, Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, forthcoming.
“Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring,” with Boragan Aruoba, Frank Diebold and Marco Terrones, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, in Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi eds., University of Chicago Press, 245-286, 2011.
Review of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, Journal of International Economics, vol. 84, no: 1, 132-134, 2011.
“Financial Cycles: What? How? When?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, in Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi eds., University of Chicago Press, 303-343, 2011.
“Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View,” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Journal of the Chilean Economy, 13, no:2, 55-84, 2010. (also published in Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence, Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, in Luis Felipe Cespedes, Roberto Chang, and Diego Saravia eds., Central Bank of Chile Publications, 59-104, 2011)
“Financial Globalization and Economic Policies” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 5, in Dani Rodrik and Mark R. Rosenzweig eds., Elsevier, 4283–4362, 2010.
“Global Financial Crisis: How Similar? How Different? How Costly?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Journal of Asian Economics, vol:21, no: 3, 247-264, 2010.
“The Financial Crisis of 2008-09: Origins, Issues, and Prospects” with Stijn Claessens (Guest Editors’ Introduction), Journal of Asian Economics, vol:21, no: 3, 239-242, 2010.
“Frontiers of Research on Financial Globalization,” (Guest Editor’s Introduction), IMF Staff Papers, 56, 2009, 1-7.
“Financial Stress and Economic Activity” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, BRSA Journal of Banking and Financial Markets, vol:2, no: 2, 11-24, 2008. (Lead Article)
“Managing Large Capital Inflows” with Roberto Cardarelli and Selim Elekdag, World Economic Outlook, 105-134, October 2007.
“Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, in Ann Harrison ed., Globalization and Poverty, NBER Conference Volume, Chicago University Press, 451-509, 2007.
“Decoupling the Train: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy” with Thomas Helbling, Peter Berezin, Nikola Spatafora, Michael Kumhof and Douglas Laxton World Economic Outlook, 121-160, April 2007.
“Financial Globalization: Beyond the Blame Game,” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, Finance & Development, 8-15, March 2007.
“Macroeconomic Implications of CAFTA-DR,” with Alessandro Rebucci and Alfred Schipke, in Markus Rodlauer and Alfred Schipke ed., Central America: Global Integration and Regional Cooperation, IMF Occasional Paper No:243, 7-40, 2005.
“How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence” with Guy Meredith and Christopher Towe, in Rolf J. Langhammer and Lucio Vinhas de Souza ed., Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, 35-81, Springer, 2005.
“Economic Integration, Business Cycle and Productivity in North America,” with Roberto Cardarelli, in Larry Schembri ed., Canada in the Global Economy, 451-497, The Bank of Canada Publications, 2005.
“How Might CAFTA Change Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Central America?” with Alessandro Rebucci, Journal of Asian Economics, 16, 77-104, 2005.
“The Economic Impact of U.S. Budget Policies” with Roberto Cardarelli, in Christopher Towe and Martin Muhleisen ed., U.S. Fiscal Policies and Priorities for Long-Run Sustainability, IMF Occasional Paper No:227, 2004.
“Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, in Horst Siebert ed., Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, Springer, 89-122, 2004.
“Contagion or Simple Transmission of Business Cycles? The Case of the Asian Crisis” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, in Richard Hooley and Jang-Hee Yoo ed., The Post-Financial Crisis Challenges for Asian Industrialization, JAI-Elsevier Science, Research in Asian Economic Studies, 10, 43-91, 2002.
Review of “The Economic Efficiency and Productivity Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region,” ed. by Tsu-Tan Fu, Cliff J. Huang, and C. A. Know Lovell, Journal of Asian Economics, 11, 259-265, 2000.
Review of “The Regionalization of the World Economy,” ed. by Jeffrey A. Frankel, Journal of Economic Literature, 37, 1190-1192, 1999.
“External Shocks and Economic Dynamics: The Case of African Countries,” with Raymond Riezman, Journal of African Finance and Economic Development, 3, 1-42, 1998. (Lead Article)
“Income Distribution and the Bretton Woods Institutions,” with Enrique Carrasco, Transnational Law and Contemporary Problems, 6, 2-40, 1996. (Lead Article)
Publications in Refereed Journals
“Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?” with Chris Otrok and Eswar Prasad, International Economic Review, 53, 511-538, 2012.
“How do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Economics, 87, 178-190, 2012.
“What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?” with Mario Crucini and Chris Otrok, Review of Economic Dynamics, 14, 156-175, 2011.
“Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration,” with Eswar Prasad and Ashley Taylor, Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 147-179, 2011.
“Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective,” with Thomas Helbling, Raju Huidrom, and Chris Otrok, European Economic Review, 55, 340–353, 2011.
“Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses,” with Roberto Cardarelli and Selim Elekdag, Economic Systems, 34, 333-356, 2010.
“What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Economic Policy, 60, 653-700, 2009.
“Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk Sharing?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of Development Economics, 89, 258-270, 2009.
“Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, IMF Staff Papers, 56, 8-62, 2009 (Lead Article). [also published in: “Macro-Financial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies” in C. Crowe, et. al, eds., 2010]
“Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, 554-580, 2009.
“Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles” with Chris Otrok and Charles Whiteman, Journal of International Economics, 75, 110-30, 2008.
“Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations” with Cigdem Akin, Journal of Asian Economics, 19, 1-28, 2008 (Lead Article).
“How Different is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?” with Bill Blankenau, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11, 56-78, 2007.
“Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA” with Hideaki Hirata and Henry Kim, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 43, 5-34, 2007(Lead Article).
“Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” with Kei-Mu Yi, Journal of International Economics, 68, 267-295, 2006 (Lead Article).
“How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Economics, 69, 176-202, 2006.
“Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, IMF Staff Papers, 52, 31-63, 2005.
“Integration and Fluctuations: The Case of MENA” with Hideaki Hirata and Henry Kim, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40, 48-67, 2004.
“International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country Specific Factors,” with Chris Otrok and Charles Whiteman, American Economic Review, 93, 1216-1239, 2003.
“Dynamics of Open Economy Business Cycle Models: Understanding the Role of the Discount Factor,” with Henry Kim, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 7, 263-290, 2003.
“How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 93, 57-62, 2003.
“Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, IMF Staff Papers, 50, 119-142, 2003.
“Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia,” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, Review of Development Economics, 7, 462-477, 2003.
“Explaining Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: How much do world prices matter?” Journal of International Economics, 56, 299-327, 2002.
“Small Countries and Preferential Trade Agreements: How Severe is the Innocent Bystander Problem?” with Raymond Riezman, Pacific Economic Review, 7, 279-304, 2002.
“International Trade and Business Cycles” with Kei-Mu Yi, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 91, 371-375, 2001.
“Can World Real Interest Rates Explain Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy?” with Bill Blankenau and Kei-Mu Yi, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 867-889, 2001.
“Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa,” with Raymond Riezman, Journal of Development Economics,65, 55-80, 2001.
“Understanding the Asian Contagion,” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, Asian Economic Journal, 15, no:2, 111-138. 2001. (Lead Article)
“Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements,” with Raymond Riezman, Review of International Economics, 8, 619-633, 2000.
IMF Country Reports
"Nicaragua: Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement," IMF Country Report No. 12/258, IMF Country Report No. 12/258, 2012.
“Canada-U.S. Economic Integration: Developments and Prospects,” Canada—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 04/60, Chapter VI, 2004.
“Domestic and International Impact of U.S. Budget Policies,” with Roberto Cardarelli, United States—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 03/245, Chapter IV, 2003.
“Globalization and Business Cycles in the United States,” United States—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 03/245, Chapter VIII, 2003.
“Economic Integration in the Americas: Lessons from NAFTA,” United States—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 03/245, Chapter XI, 2003.
Media Publications
“Seven Questions on the Turning Points of the Global Business Cycle,” with Prakash Loungani and Marco Terrones, IMF Research Bulletin, 13, 8-10, 2012.
“Tracking the Global Recovery,” with Prakash Loungani and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, vol: 49, no: 2, 10-13, June 2012.
“Rough Seas in Financial Markets,” (in Turkish, Dalgalanmadan Durulmayan Finansal Piyasalar) Gorus (Opinion), 54-60, October 2011.
“Understanding Financial Cycles,” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, VoxEU, July 2011.
“Emerging Markets: New Challenges after the Global Recession,” with Eswar Prasad, VoxEU, March 2011.
“Gyrations in Financial Markets,” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, vol: 48, no: 1, 30-33, March 2011.
“Emerging Markets Come of Age” with Eswar Prasad, Finance & Development, December 2010.
“Seven Questions about Emerging Markets and the Financial Crises,” IMF Research Bulletin, December 2010.
“The Decoupling Debate is Back!” with Eswar Prasad, Foreign Policy, June 2009.
“Out of the Ballpark” with Prakash Loungani and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, 25-28, June 2009
“A Creditless Recovery: Possible, but…” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, VoxEU, May 2009.
“What is a Recession?” with Stijn Claessens, Finance & Development, 52-53, March 2009
“Emerging Markets: Navigating Uncharted Waters” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook 2009/10
“Financial Globalization and Productivity Growth,” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, VoxEU, January 2009.
“Seven Questions About Decoupling,” IMF Research Bulletin, 9, 1-5, 2008.
“When Crises Collide,” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, December 2008, 26-28.
“Global Financial Crisis: How Long? How Deep?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, VoxEU, October 2008 (also published in The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century, Part II: June–December, in Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart eds., 2008, 329-332)
“Dissecting the Decoupling Debate,” with Chris Otrok and Eswar Prasad, VoxEU, October 2008
“Emerging Markets: On the Verge of a New Era?” with Stijn Claessens, Foreword, Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook 2008/9.
“How Much Decoupling? How Much Converging?” with Chris Otrok and Eswar Prasad, Finance & Development, June 2008, 36-40.
“Learning How to Cope with Capital Inflows,” with Roberto Cardarelli and Selim Elekdag, IMF Survey, 203, October 2007.
“Financial Globalization: Beyond the Blame Game,” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, Finance & Development, 8-15, March 2007.
“Globalization and Macroeconomic Volatility,” IMF Research Bulletin, 8, 1-3, 2007.
“Taking the Plunge without Getting Hurt,” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, 44-47, December 2004
“Globalization and Synchronization of Business Cycles,” IMF Research Bulletin, 5, 1-5, March 2004.
“Liberalizing Capital Account Restrictions,” with Eswar Prasad, Finance & Development, 50-51, September 2004.
“Thinking Big: Small States and Globalization,” with Eswar Prasad, Finance & Development, 38-41, December 2002.
IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers
“Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization” with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Julian di Giovanni, André Faria, Paolo Mauro, Jonathan Ostry, Martin Schindler, and Marco Terrones, IMF Occasional Paper No: 264, 2008. [also published in: “Macro-Financial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies,” in C. Crowe, J. Ostry, S. Johnson and J. Zettelmeyer eds., 2010]
“Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, IMF Occasional Paper No: 220, 2003. [Also published in: (1) India's and China's Recent Experience with Reform and Growth, Wanda Tseng and David Cowen ed., Palgrave Macmillan, 201-228, 2005; and (2) Economic and Political Weekly, India, 2003; (3) New International Financial Architecture, Nouriel Roubini and Marc Uzan ed., Edward Elgar, 2006]
Ayhan Kose is Assistant to the Director in the IMF Research Department. He previously worked for the United States and Canada desks of the IMF Western Hemisphere Department. His research focuses on macro-financial linkages, global spillovers, financial globalization, business and financial cycles, and linkages between advanced and emerging economies. He has authored a number of policy-oriented papers on these topics. Technical versions of many of these papers have been published in leading academic journals, such as the American Economic Review, International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics, Journal of Development Economics, Economic Policy, and many others. He has also written articles for a variety of policy outlets, including the IMF World Economic Outlook, Finance & Development, Foreign Policy, Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook, and VoxEU. His research has been featured in various media outlets, including The Economist, New York Times, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, and others.
Email: akose@imf.org
Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pko65.html
Fluent In: Turkish.
Education:
1997: Ph.D. in Economics, H. B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa.
1992: B.S. in Industrial Engineering, Bilkent University, Ankara-Turkey.
Previous Experience:
2001-Present: International Monetary Fund; Assistant to the Director, Research Department (2009-present); Senior Economist, Research Department (2008-2009); Economist, Research Department and Western Hemisphere Department (2001-2008)
1997-2001: Brandeis University; Assistant Professor, Brandeis International Business School and Department of Economics
Refereed Activities:
Referee for numerous academic journals, publishing companies and research institutions.
Editorial Activities:
Co-Editor, IMF Economic Review, 2009-present; Editor, IMF Research Bulletin, 2008-present; Co-Editor, IMF Staff Papers, 2007-2010; Executive Editor, Journal of Asian Economics, 2008-present.
Work in progress:
Global Recessions and Recoveries; Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Crises; International Business and Financial Cycles
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants, Working Paper No. 13/38, February 06, 2013
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications, Working Paper No. 13/28, January 30, 2013
Regionalization vs. Globalization, Working Paper No. 13/19, January 22, 2013
Financial Cycles: What? How? When?, Working Paper No. 11/76, April 01, 2011
How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?, Working Paper No. 11/88, April 01, 2011
Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring, Working Paper No. 11/25, February 01, 2011
Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective, Working Paper No. 10/261, November 01, 2010
Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses, Working Paper No. 09/40, March 01, 2009
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 264, December 16, 2008
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?, Working Paper No. 08/274, December 01, 2008
Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?, Working Paper No. 08/242, October 01, 2008
Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?, Working Paper No. 08/143, June 01, 2008
Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations, Working Paper No. 07/280, December 01, 2007
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels, Working Paper No. 07/238, October 01, 2007
Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal, Working Paper No. 06/189, August 01, 2006
How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?, Working Paper No. 06/46, February 01, 2006
Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles, Working Paper No. 05/211, November 01, 2005
Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement?, Working Paper No. 05/204, October 01, 2005
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?, Working Paper No. 05/19, January 01, 2005
Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America, Working Paper No. 04/138, August 01, 2004
How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence, Working Paper No. 04/59, April 01, 2004
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration, Working Paper No. 03/246, December 01, 2003
Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence, Occasional Paper No. 220, September 03, 2003
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility, Working Paper No. 03/50, March 01, 2003
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?, Working Paper No. 03/27, January 01, 2003
Books
“Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses” with Stijn Claessens, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia, IMF Publications, forthcoming.
Articles
“Regionalization vs. Globalization,” with Hideaki Hirata and Christopher Otrok, Global Interdependence, Decoupling and Recoupling in Frank Westermann and Yin-Wong Cheung eds., MIT Press, forthcoming.
“Understanding Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses,” with Stijn Claessens, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia (Editors’ Introduction), Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, forthcoming.
“Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants” with Hideaki Hirata, Christopher Otrok, and Marco Terrones, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, in Francesco Giavazzi and Kenneth West eds., University of Chicago Press, forthcoming.
“Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications,” with Stijn Claessens, in Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia eds., IMF Publications, Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, forthcoming.
“Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring,” with Boragan Aruoba, Frank Diebold and Marco Terrones, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, in Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi eds., University of Chicago Press, 245-286, 2011.
Review of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, Journal of International Economics, vol. 84, no: 1, 132-134, 2011.
“Financial Cycles: What? How? When?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, in Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi eds., University of Chicago Press, 303-343, 2011.
“Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View,” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Journal of the Chilean Economy, 13, no:2, 55-84, 2010. (also published in Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence, Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, in Luis Felipe Cespedes, Roberto Chang, and Diego Saravia eds., Central Bank of Chile Publications, 59-104, 2011)
“Financial Globalization and Economic Policies” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 5, in Dani Rodrik and Mark R. Rosenzweig eds., Elsevier, 4283–4362, 2010.
“Global Financial Crisis: How Similar? How Different? How Costly?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Journal of Asian Economics, vol:21, no: 3, 247-264, 2010.
“The Financial Crisis of 2008-09: Origins, Issues, and Prospects” with Stijn Claessens (Guest Editors’ Introduction), Journal of Asian Economics, vol:21, no: 3, 239-242, 2010.
“Frontiers of Research on Financial Globalization,” (Guest Editor’s Introduction), IMF Staff Papers, 56, 2009, 1-7.
“Financial Stress and Economic Activity” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, BRSA Journal of Banking and Financial Markets, vol:2, no: 2, 11-24, 2008. (Lead Article)
“Managing Large Capital Inflows” with Roberto Cardarelli and Selim Elekdag, World Economic Outlook, 105-134, October 2007.
“Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, in Ann Harrison ed., Globalization and Poverty, NBER Conference Volume, Chicago University Press, 451-509, 2007.
“Decoupling the Train: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy” with Thomas Helbling, Peter Berezin, Nikola Spatafora, Michael Kumhof and Douglas Laxton World Economic Outlook, 121-160, April 2007.
“Financial Globalization: Beyond the Blame Game,” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, Finance & Development, 8-15, March 2007.
“Macroeconomic Implications of CAFTA-DR,” with Alessandro Rebucci and Alfred Schipke, in Markus Rodlauer and Alfred Schipke ed., Central America: Global Integration and Regional Cooperation, IMF Occasional Paper No:243, 7-40, 2005.
“How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence” with Guy Meredith and Christopher Towe, in Rolf J. Langhammer and Lucio Vinhas de Souza ed., Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, 35-81, Springer, 2005.
“Economic Integration, Business Cycle and Productivity in North America,” with Roberto Cardarelli, in Larry Schembri ed., Canada in the Global Economy, 451-497, The Bank of Canada Publications, 2005.
“How Might CAFTA Change Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Central America?” with Alessandro Rebucci, Journal of Asian Economics, 16, 77-104, 2005.
“The Economic Impact of U.S. Budget Policies” with Roberto Cardarelli, in Christopher Towe and Martin Muhleisen ed., U.S. Fiscal Policies and Priorities for Long-Run Sustainability, IMF Occasional Paper No:227, 2004.
“Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, in Horst Siebert ed., Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, Springer, 89-122, 2004.
“Contagion or Simple Transmission of Business Cycles? The Case of the Asian Crisis” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, in Richard Hooley and Jang-Hee Yoo ed., The Post-Financial Crisis Challenges for Asian Industrialization, JAI-Elsevier Science, Research in Asian Economic Studies, 10, 43-91, 2002.
Review of “The Economic Efficiency and Productivity Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region,” ed. by Tsu-Tan Fu, Cliff J. Huang, and C. A. Know Lovell, Journal of Asian Economics, 11, 259-265, 2000.
Review of “The Regionalization of the World Economy,” ed. by Jeffrey A. Frankel, Journal of Economic Literature, 37, 1190-1192, 1999.
“External Shocks and Economic Dynamics: The Case of African Countries,” with Raymond Riezman, Journal of African Finance and Economic Development, 3, 1-42, 1998. (Lead Article)
“Income Distribution and the Bretton Woods Institutions,” with Enrique Carrasco, Transnational Law and Contemporary Problems, 6, 2-40, 1996. (Lead Article)
Publications in Refereed Journals
“Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?” with Chris Otrok and Eswar Prasad, International Economic Review, 53, 511-538, 2012.
“How do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Economics, 87, 178-190, 2012.
“What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?” with Mario Crucini and Chris Otrok, Review of Economic Dynamics, 14, 156-175, 2011.
“Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration,” with Eswar Prasad and Ashley Taylor, Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 147-179, 2011.
“Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective,” with Thomas Helbling, Raju Huidrom, and Chris Otrok, European Economic Review, 55, 340–353, 2011.
“Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses,” with Roberto Cardarelli and Selim Elekdag, Economic Systems, 34, 333-356, 2010.
“What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Economic Policy, 60, 653-700, 2009.
“Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk Sharing?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of Development Economics, 89, 258-270, 2009.
“Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, IMF Staff Papers, 56, 8-62, 2009 (Lead Article). [also published in: “Macro-Financial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies” in C. Crowe, et. al, eds., 2010]
“Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, 554-580, 2009.
“Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles” with Chris Otrok and Charles Whiteman, Journal of International Economics, 75, 110-30, 2008.
“Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations” with Cigdem Akin, Journal of Asian Economics, 19, 1-28, 2008 (Lead Article).
“How Different is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?” with Bill Blankenau, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11, 56-78, 2007.
“Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA” with Hideaki Hirata and Henry Kim, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 43, 5-34, 2007(Lead Article).
“Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” with Kei-Mu Yi, Journal of International Economics, 68, 267-295, 2006 (Lead Article).
“How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Economics, 69, 176-202, 2006.
“Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, IMF Staff Papers, 52, 31-63, 2005.
“Integration and Fluctuations: The Case of MENA” with Hideaki Hirata and Henry Kim, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40, 48-67, 2004.
“International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country Specific Factors,” with Chris Otrok and Charles Whiteman, American Economic Review, 93, 1216-1239, 2003.
“Dynamics of Open Economy Business Cycle Models: Understanding the Role of the Discount Factor,” with Henry Kim, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 7, 263-290, 2003.
“How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 93, 57-62, 2003.
“Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, IMF Staff Papers, 50, 119-142, 2003.
“Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia,” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, Review of Development Economics, 7, 462-477, 2003.
“Explaining Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: How much do world prices matter?” Journal of International Economics, 56, 299-327, 2002.
“Small Countries and Preferential Trade Agreements: How Severe is the Innocent Bystander Problem?” with Raymond Riezman, Pacific Economic Review, 7, 279-304, 2002.
“International Trade and Business Cycles” with Kei-Mu Yi, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 91, 371-375, 2001.
“Can World Real Interest Rates Explain Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy?” with Bill Blankenau and Kei-Mu Yi, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 867-889, 2001.
“Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa,” with Raymond Riezman, Journal of Development Economics,65, 55-80, 2001.
“Understanding the Asian Contagion,” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, Asian Economic Journal, 15, no:2, 111-138. 2001. (Lead Article)
“Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements,” with Raymond Riezman, Review of International Economics, 8, 619-633, 2000.
IMF Country Reports
"Nicaragua: Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement," IMF Country Report No. 12/258, IMF Country Report No. 12/258, 2012.
“Canada-U.S. Economic Integration: Developments and Prospects,” Canada—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 04/60, Chapter VI, 2004.
“Domestic and International Impact of U.S. Budget Policies,” with Roberto Cardarelli, United States—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 03/245, Chapter IV, 2003.
“Globalization and Business Cycles in the United States,” United States—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 03/245, Chapter VIII, 2003.
“Economic Integration in the Americas: Lessons from NAFTA,” United States—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 03/245, Chapter XI, 2003.
Media Publications
“Seven Questions on the Turning Points of the Global Business Cycle,” with Prakash Loungani and Marco Terrones, IMF Research Bulletin, 13, 8-10, 2012.
“Tracking the Global Recovery,” with Prakash Loungani and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, vol: 49, no: 2, 10-13, June 2012.
“Rough Seas in Financial Markets,” (in Turkish, Dalgalanmadan Durulmayan Finansal Piyasalar) Gorus (Opinion), 54-60, October 2011.
“Understanding Financial Cycles,” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, VoxEU, July 2011.
“Emerging Markets: New Challenges after the Global Recession,” with Eswar Prasad, VoxEU, March 2011.
“Gyrations in Financial Markets,” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, vol: 48, no: 1, 30-33, March 2011.
“Emerging Markets Come of Age” with Eswar Prasad, Finance & Development, December 2010.
“Seven Questions about Emerging Markets and the Financial Crises,” IMF Research Bulletin, December 2010.
“The Decoupling Debate is Back!” with Eswar Prasad, Foreign Policy, June 2009.
“Out of the Ballpark” with Prakash Loungani and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, 25-28, June 2009
“A Creditless Recovery: Possible, but…” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, VoxEU, May 2009.
“What is a Recession?” with Stijn Claessens, Finance & Development, 52-53, March 2009
“Emerging Markets: Navigating Uncharted Waters” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook 2009/10
“Financial Globalization and Productivity Growth,” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, VoxEU, January 2009.
“Seven Questions About Decoupling,” IMF Research Bulletin, 9, 1-5, 2008.
“When Crises Collide,” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, December 2008, 26-28.
“Global Financial Crisis: How Long? How Deep?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, VoxEU, October 2008 (also published in The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century, Part II: June–December, in Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart eds., 2008, 329-332)
“Dissecting the Decoupling Debate,” with Chris Otrok and Eswar Prasad, VoxEU, October 2008
“Emerging Markets: On the Verge of a New Era?” with Stijn Claessens, Foreword, Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook 2008/9.
“How Much Decoupling? How Much Converging?” with Chris Otrok and Eswar Prasad, Finance & Development, June 2008, 36-40.
“Learning How to Cope with Capital Inflows,” with Roberto Cardarelli and Selim Elekdag, IMF Survey, 203, October 2007.
“Financial Globalization: Beyond the Blame Game,” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, Finance & Development, 8-15, March 2007.
“Globalization and Macroeconomic Volatility,” IMF Research Bulletin, 8, 1-3, 2007.
“Taking the Plunge without Getting Hurt,” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Finance & Development, 44-47, December 2004
“Globalization and Synchronization of Business Cycles,” IMF Research Bulletin, 5, 1-5, March 2004.
“Liberalizing Capital Account Restrictions,” with Eswar Prasad, Finance & Development, 50-51, September 2004.
“Thinking Big: Small States and Globalization,” with Eswar Prasad, Finance & Development, 38-41, December 2002.
IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers
“Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization” with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Julian di Giovanni, André Faria, Paolo Mauro, Jonathan Ostry, Martin Schindler, and Marco Terrones, IMF Occasional Paper No: 264, 2008. [also published in: “Macro-Financial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies,” in C. Crowe, J. Ostry, S. Johnson and J. Zettelmeyer eds., 2010]
“Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, IMF Occasional Paper No: 220, 2003. [Also published in: (1) India's and China's Recent Experience with Reform and Growth, Wanda Tseng and David Cowen ed., Palgrave Macmillan, 201-228, 2005; and (2) Economic and Political Weekly, India, 2003; (3) New International Financial Architecture, Nouriel Roubini and Marc Uzan ed., Edward Elgar, 2006]