Marco Terrones
Last Updated: December 01, 2010Marco E. Terrones is Deputy Division Chief in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. He previously served as the main economist for Colombia and Nicaragua and participated in several missions to other countries of the Western Hemisphere Department. Prior to his career at the Fund, he was a Principal Researcher at GRADE, a Peruvian think tank, and taught at Vanderbilt University and the University of Western Ontario. His research interests include: the macroeconomic effects of financial globalization; business cycles; and macro-financial linkages. He has published in leading academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. He has also written several chapters and essays in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. His research has been featured by several media outlets, including the Economist, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times. He has also contributed several articles to VoxEU and Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook.
Email: mterrones@imf.org
Fluent In: Spanish.
Education:
1989: Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison.
1986: M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison.
1983: B.A. in Economics, Universidad Catolica, Lima, Perú.
Previous Experience:
1994-Present: International Monetary Fund; Deputy Division Chief in the World Economic Studies Division, Research Department (2008-present); Senior Economist and Economist, Research Department and Western Hemisphere Department (1994-2008)
1991-1994: Group of Analysis for Economic Development (GRADE), Peru. Principal Researcher.
1988-1991: Vanderbilt University and University of Western Ontario. Assistant Professor and Postdoctoral Fellow.
Refereed Activities:
Referee for several academic journals. Foreign Editor for the Revista Estudios Económicos of the Colegio de México (1992-94).
Others:
Financial and Business Cycles.
Recessions and Recoveries.
Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Globalization.
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants, Working Paper No. 13/38, February 06, 2013
Financial Cycles: What? How? When?, Working Paper No. 11/76, April 01, 2011
How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?, Working Paper No. 11/88, April 01, 2011
Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring, Working Paper No. 11/25, February 01, 2011
On the Solvency of Nations: Are Global Imbalances Consistent with Intertemporal Budget Constraints?, Working Paper No. 10/50, February 01, 2010
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 264, December 16, 2008
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?, Working Paper No. 08/274, December 01, 2008
Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?, Working Paper No. 08/242, October 01, 2008
An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data, Working Paper No. 08/226, September 01, 2008
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels, Working Paper No. 07/238, October 01, 2007
Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Merchantilism, Working Paper No. 07/146, June 01, 2007
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?, Working Paper No. 05/19, January 01, 2005
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration, Working Paper No. 03/246, December 01, 2003
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, Working Paper No. 03/65, April 01, 2003
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility, Working Paper No. 03/50, March 01, 2003
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?, Working Paper No. 03/27, January 01, 2003
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence, Working Paper No. 01/74, May 01, 2001
Determinants of Dollarization - The Banking Side, Working Paper No. 00/146, August 01, 2000
Other IMF Publications
World Economic Outlook
"Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses" with Abdul Abiad and Daniel Leigh, World Economic Outlook, April 2010, pp. 109-137.
“From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?” with Prakash Kannan and Alasdair Scott, World Economic Outlook, April 2009, pp 103-138.
“Global Imbalances: A Saving and Investment Perspective,” with Roberto Cardarelli, World Economic Outlook, September 2005, pp 91-124.
“The Global House Price Boom,” World Economic Outlook, September 2004, pp 71-89 and 118-121
“Are Credit Booms in Emerging Markets a Concern?,” World Economic Outlook, April 2004, pp 147-166.
“Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is it Too High?,” with Tim Callen, Xavier Debrun, and James Daniel. World Economic Outlook, September 2003, pp 113-152.
“Real and Financial Effects of Bursting Asset Price Bubbles,” with Thomas Helbling, World Economic Outlook, April 2003, pp. 61-76 and 88-94.
“How Worrisome are External Imbalances?,” with Tamim Bayoumi, World Economic Outlook, September 2002, pp. 65-81.
“Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era,” with Silvia Sgherri, World Economic Outlook, April 2002, pp.85-102.
“How do Fluctuations in the G-7 Countries Affect Developing Countries?,” World Economic Outlook, September 2001, pp. 79-104.
“The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets: Can it be Maintained?,” with Luis Cãtao and Markus Hacker, World Economic Outlook, April 2001, pp. 116-144.
Other IMF Articles
“Out of the Ballpark,” with Ayhan Kose and Prakash Loungani, Finance and Development, Volume 46, Number 2, 2009.
“When Crises Collide,” with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose. Finance and Development, Volume 45, Number 4, 2008.
“What Do We Know About Credit Booms?,” IMF Research Bulletin, Vol. 8, Number 2, 2007.
“Housing Prices and Macroeconomics,” IMF Research Bulletin, Vol. 6, No.4, 2005
“Taking the Plunge Without Getting Hurt,” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, Finance and Development, Volume 41, Number 4, 2004.
Other/Non-IMF Publications
Recent Publications in Refereed Journals
"The Global Financial Crisis: How Similar? How Different? How Costly?," with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose. 2010. Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 21, pp.247-264.
“What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?” with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose, Economic Policy, 60, 653-700, 2009. (This article has been awarded the 2010 Emerald Management Review Citation of Excellence Award).
“Precautionary Demand of Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism,” with Bora Durdu and Enrique Mendoza, Journal of Development Economics, 89, 194-209, 2009.
“Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk Sharing?” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, Journal of Development Economics, 89, 258-270, 2009.
“Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, 554-580, 2009.
“How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, Journal of International Economics, 69, 176-202, 2006.
“Fiscal Deficits and Inflation.” with Luis Cãtao, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp.529-54, 2005.
“Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, IMF Staff Papers, 52, 31-63, 2005.
“How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 93, 57-62, 2003.
“Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, IMF Staff Papers, 50, 119-142, 2003.
Recent Papers in Books/Periodicals
"Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," with Boragan Aruoba, Frank Diebold, and Ayhan Kose. Forthcoming in Clarida, R. and Giavazzi, F. (eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010.
"Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose. Forthcoming in Clarida, R. and Giavazzi, F. (eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010.
"Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View," with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose. Forthcoming in Cespedes, L., Chang, R., and Saravia, D. (eds.), Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence. 2010.
“Exchange Rate Regimes and External Adjustment,” with Atish R. Ghosh and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. Published in Charles Wyplosz ed. “The New International Monetary System: Essays in Honor of Alexander Swoboda” 2010. Routledge International Studies in Money and Banking.
“Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization,” with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Julian di Giovanni, Andre Faria, Ayhan Kose, Paulo Mauro, and Jonathan Ostry. Published in Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan Ostry and Jeromin Zettelmeyer eds. “Macro Financial Linkages,” 2010.
“Financial Stress and Economic Activity” with Ayhan Kose and Stijn Claessens BRSA Journal of Banking and Financial Markets, vol:2, no: 2, 11-24, 2008. (Lead Article)
“Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, in Horst Siebert ed., Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, Springer, 89-122, 2004.
Marco E. Terrones is Deputy Division Chief in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. He previously served as the main economist for Colombia and Nicaragua and participated in several missions to other countries of the Western Hemisphere Department. Prior to his career at the Fund, he was a Principal Researcher at GRADE, a Peruvian think tank, and taught at Vanderbilt University and the University of Western Ontario. His research interests include: the macroeconomic effects of financial globalization; business cycles; and macro-financial linkages. He has published in leading academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. He has also written several chapters and essays in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. His research has been featured by several media outlets, including the Economist, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times. He has also contributed several articles to VoxEU and Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook.
Email: mterrones@imf.org
Fluent In: Spanish.
Education:
1989: Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison.
1986: M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison.
1983: B.A. in Economics, Universidad Catolica, Lima, Perú.
Previous Experience:
1994-Present: International Monetary Fund; Deputy Division Chief in the World Economic Studies Division, Research Department (2008-present); Senior Economist and Economist, Research Department and Western Hemisphere Department (1994-2008)
1991-1994: Group of Analysis for Economic Development (GRADE), Peru. Principal Researcher.
1988-1991: Vanderbilt University and University of Western Ontario. Assistant Professor and Postdoctoral Fellow.
Refereed Activities:
Referee for several academic journals. Foreign Editor for the Revista Estudios Económicos of the Colegio de México (1992-94).
Others:
Financial and Business Cycles.
Recessions and Recoveries.
Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Globalization.
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants, Working Paper No. 13/38, February 06, 2013
Financial Cycles: What? How? When?, Working Paper No. 11/76, April 01, 2011
How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?, Working Paper No. 11/88, April 01, 2011
Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring, Working Paper No. 11/25, February 01, 2011
On the Solvency of Nations: Are Global Imbalances Consistent with Intertemporal Budget Constraints?, Working Paper No. 10/50, February 01, 2010
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 264, December 16, 2008
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?, Working Paper No. 08/274, December 01, 2008
Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?, Working Paper No. 08/242, October 01, 2008
An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data, Working Paper No. 08/226, September 01, 2008
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels, Working Paper No. 07/238, October 01, 2007
Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Merchantilism, Working Paper No. 07/146, June 01, 2007
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?, Working Paper No. 05/19, January 01, 2005
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration, Working Paper No. 03/246, December 01, 2003
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, Working Paper No. 03/65, April 01, 2003
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility, Working Paper No. 03/50, March 01, 2003
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?, Working Paper No. 03/27, January 01, 2003
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence, Working Paper No. 01/74, May 01, 2001
Determinants of Dollarization - The Banking Side, Working Paper No. 00/146, August 01, 2000
Other IMF Publications
World Economic Outlook
"Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses" with Abdul Abiad and Daniel Leigh, World Economic Outlook, April 2010, pp. 109-137.
“From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?” with Prakash Kannan and Alasdair Scott, World Economic Outlook, April 2009, pp 103-138.
“Global Imbalances: A Saving and Investment Perspective,” with Roberto Cardarelli, World Economic Outlook, September 2005, pp 91-124.
“The Global House Price Boom,” World Economic Outlook, September 2004, pp 71-89 and 118-121
“Are Credit Booms in Emerging Markets a Concern?,” World Economic Outlook, April 2004, pp 147-166.
“Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is it Too High?,” with Tim Callen, Xavier Debrun, and James Daniel. World Economic Outlook, September 2003, pp 113-152.
“Real and Financial Effects of Bursting Asset Price Bubbles,” with Thomas Helbling, World Economic Outlook, April 2003, pp. 61-76 and 88-94.
“How Worrisome are External Imbalances?,” with Tamim Bayoumi, World Economic Outlook, September 2002, pp. 65-81.
“Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era,” with Silvia Sgherri, World Economic Outlook, April 2002, pp.85-102.
“How do Fluctuations in the G-7 Countries Affect Developing Countries?,” World Economic Outlook, September 2001, pp. 79-104.
“The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets: Can it be Maintained?,” with Luis Cãtao and Markus Hacker, World Economic Outlook, April 2001, pp. 116-144.
Other IMF Articles
“Out of the Ballpark,” with Ayhan Kose and Prakash Loungani, Finance and Development, Volume 46, Number 2, 2009.
“When Crises Collide,” with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose. Finance and Development, Volume 45, Number 4, 2008.
“What Do We Know About Credit Booms?,” IMF Research Bulletin, Vol. 8, Number 2, 2007.
“Housing Prices and Macroeconomics,” IMF Research Bulletin, Vol. 6, No.4, 2005
“Taking the Plunge Without Getting Hurt,” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, Finance and Development, Volume 41, Number 4, 2004.
Other/Non-IMF Publications
Recent Publications in Refereed Journals
"The Global Financial Crisis: How Similar? How Different? How Costly?," with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose. 2010. Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 21, pp.247-264.
“What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?” with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose, Economic Policy, 60, 653-700, 2009. (This article has been awarded the 2010 Emerald Management Review Citation of Excellence Award).
“Precautionary Demand of Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism,” with Bora Durdu and Enrique Mendoza, Journal of Development Economics, 89, 194-209, 2009.
“Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk Sharing?” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, Journal of Development Economics, 89, 258-270, 2009.
“Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, 554-580, 2009.
“How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, Journal of International Economics, 69, 176-202, 2006.
“Fiscal Deficits and Inflation.” with Luis Cãtao, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp.529-54, 2005.
“Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, IMF Staff Papers, 52, 31-63, 2005.
“How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 93, 57-62, 2003.
“Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, IMF Staff Papers, 50, 119-142, 2003.
Recent Papers in Books/Periodicals
"Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," with Boragan Aruoba, Frank Diebold, and Ayhan Kose. Forthcoming in Clarida, R. and Giavazzi, F. (eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010.
"Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose. Forthcoming in Clarida, R. and Giavazzi, F. (eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010.
"Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View," with Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose. Forthcoming in Cespedes, L., Chang, R., and Saravia, D. (eds.), Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence. 2010.
“Exchange Rate Regimes and External Adjustment,” with Atish R. Ghosh and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. Published in Charles Wyplosz ed. “The New International Monetary System: Essays in Honor of Alexander Swoboda” 2010. Routledge International Studies in Money and Banking.
“Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization,” with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Julian di Giovanni, Andre Faria, Ayhan Kose, Paulo Mauro, and Jonathan Ostry. Published in Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan Ostry and Jeromin Zettelmeyer eds. “Macro Financial Linkages,” 2010.
“Financial Stress and Economic Activity” with Ayhan Kose and Stijn Claessens BRSA Journal of Banking and Financial Markets, vol:2, no: 2, 11-24, 2008. (Lead Article)
“Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration” with Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad, in Horst Siebert ed., Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, Springer, 89-122, 2004.