Gaston Gelos
Last Updated: October 03, 2011Gaston Gelos is an Advisor at the IMF Institute. Previously, he was a Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department and prior to that, the Fund's Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay. He worked as an economist in various departments at the Fund, including the European, Research, and Western Hemisphere Departments. His research covers a range of topics including financial liberalization, banking issues in emerging markets, the behavior of international investors, financial contagion and crises, and inflation dynamics. Mr. Gelos holds a Ph.D. from Yale and a "Diplom" from Bonn University and has worked at the IMF since 1998.
Email: ggelos@imf.org
Fluent In: German, Spanish.
Education:
1998 Ph.D. (Economics), Yale University
1994 "Diplom" (Economics), University of Bonn
1991-1992 Graduate coursework in Economics, University of California at Berkeley
Previous Experience:
Deputy Division Chief, Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund 2010-2011
Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2007-2010
Resident Representative, International Monetary Fund, Montevideo, Uruguay, 2005-2007
Economist, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Assignments in the Research, European, International Capital Markets, and Western Hemisphere Departments
Visiting Researcher, Banco de México, Mexico City, Research Department, May-June 1997
Consultant, World Bank, Washington, D.C., Middle East and North Africa Department II, 1995
Parliamentary Aide to Minister of State Helmut Schäfer (German First Deputy Foreign Minister), 1989-91, 1992-94
Refereed Activities:
Referee for Applied Economics, American Economic Review, Economic Inquiry, Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Inter-American Development Bank, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, Journal of International Money and Finance, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Review of International Economics, Routledge books, Trimestre Económico
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?, Working Paper No. 12/225, September 01, 2012
International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion-A Survey, Working Paper No. 11/92, April 01, 2011
The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact, Working Paper No. 09/280, December 01, 2009
Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization: The Case of Uruguay, Occasional Paper No. 263, July 25, 2008
Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance -Trying to Explain the Puzzle, Working Paper No. 06/282, December 01, 2006
Banking Spreads in Latin America, Working Paper No. 06/44, February 01, 2006
What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis, Working Paper No. 05/109, June 01, 2005
Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?, Working Paper No. 04/221, November 01, 2004
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion, Working Paper No. 04/131, July 01, 2004
Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?, Working Paper No. 04/111, June 01, 2004
Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?, Working Paper No. 03/49, March 01, 2003
Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems, Working Paper No. 02/186, November 01, 2002
Transparency and International Investor Behavior, Working Paper No. 02/174, October 01, 2002
The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds, Working Paper No. 01/111, August 01, 2001
A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds, Working Paper No. 00/198, December 01, 2000
Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies, Working Paper No. 00/71, March 01, 2000
Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market - The Case of Mexico in 1994/95, Working Paper No. 00/28, January 01, 2000
Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral - Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector, Working Paper No. 99/25, March 01, 1999
Publications in Refereed Journals
"The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact," (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J.P. Walsh), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2012
"Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?” (with Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris), Journal of International Economics, March 2011
“Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance: Trying to Explain the Puzzle,” (with Ricardo Adrogué and Martin Cerisola), Journal of Economic Studies, September 2010
"Banking Spreads in Latin America," Economic Inquiry, October 2009
“What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? – An Empirical Analysis” (with Martín Cerisola), Applied Economics, May 2009
“When in Peril, Retrench – Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion” (with Fernando Broner and Carmen Reinhart), Journal of International Economics, June 2006
“Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings” (with Shang-Jin Wei), Journal of Finance, December 2005
“Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), IMF Staff Papers, November 2004
“Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?,” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), Economic Policy, October 2004
“Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Markets Banking Systems,“ (with Jorge Roldós), Emerging Markets Review, March 2004
“A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds,” (with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, April 2003
“Leaders and Followers: Emerging Market Fund Behavior During Tranquil and Turbulent Times”, (with Eduardo Borensztein), Emerging Markets Review, March 2003
“Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets: Firm-Level Evidence From Mexico”, Economics Letters, March 2003
“Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market – A New Measure and an Application to Mexico 1994/95,” (with T. Becker and A. Richards), International Journal of Economics and Finance, July 2002
“Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral: Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector” (with Alejandro Werner), Journal of Development Economics, February 2002
“Irreversibilities in Fixed Capital Adjustment: Evidence from Mexican and Colombian Plants,” (with Alberto Isgut), Economics Letters, December 2001
“Fixed Capital Adjustment - Is Latin America Different?” (with Alberto Isgut), Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2001
“Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies,” (with Ratna Sahay), 2001, Economics of Transition, Vol. 1, March 2001
“La Inversión Fija en México - Una Revisión Selectiva,” Gaceta de Economía, December 1999
IMF Country Reports
“Commodity Prices – Their Impact on Inflation in Uruguay” (with Rita Babihuga), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 09/103
"The Inflation Process in Uruguay," (with Fernanda Rossi Iriondo), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, Country Report 08/46
“Post-Crisis Credit: Facts, Lessons, and Prospects” (with Jorge Canales-Kriljenko), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 06/427
“Why is Private Sector Credit so Low in Bulgaria?,” (with Tarhan Feyzioðlu), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 00/54
"Does Bulgaria Suffer from a Competitiveness Problem? A Look at Real Exchange Rate Indicators and Export Performance,” (with Angana Banerji), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues,” IMF Staff Country Report 00/54
Media Publications
"Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Econbrowser (www.econbrowser.com), December 2012
“The global crisis – why were some countries hit harder?” (with Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh), VoxEu, www.voxeu.com
“Transparenz schützt Schwellenländer,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 26, 2009
Other IMF Publications
“Differential Impact” (with Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2012
“A Survey of Financial Linkages,” (with Martin Cerisola, Geoffrey Banister, and Fabian Valencia), in: (Mühleisen, Martin, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, eds: “Who’s Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the America,” International Monetary Fund, October 2008
“Shocks to Balance Sheets and Emerging Market Crises,” IMF Research Bulletin, March 2003
“Are Foreign Investors in Emerging Market Economies A Panic-Prone Herd?” (with Eduardo Borensztein), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2001
Other/Non-IMF Publications
"International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion," in: G. Caprio, Jr. (ed.): "Handbooks in Financial Globalization," Elsevier
“Contagion and the Behavior of International Equity Funds,” in: Karman, A., M. Frenkel, and B. Scholtens (eds.): “Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises,” 2004, Springer-Verlag
"Financial Market Spillovers – How Different Are the Transition Economies?,” (with Ratna Sahay), in: Forbes, K. and S. Claessens (eds.): “International Financial Contagion,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
“Investment Efficiency, Human Capital and Migration: A Productivity Analysis of the Jordanian Economy,” World Bank Regional Discussion Paper No.14, 5/1995
Gaston Gelos is an Advisor at the IMF Institute. Previously, he was a Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department and prior to that, the Fund's Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay. He worked as an economist in various departments at the Fund, including the European, Research, and Western Hemisphere Departments. His research covers a range of topics including financial liberalization, banking issues in emerging markets, the behavior of international investors, financial contagion and crises, and inflation dynamics. Mr. Gelos holds a Ph.D. from Yale and a "Diplom" from Bonn University and has worked at the IMF since 1998.
Email: ggelos@imf.org
Fluent In: German, Spanish.
Education:
1998 Ph.D. (Economics), Yale University
1994 "Diplom" (Economics), University of Bonn
1991-1992 Graduate coursework in Economics, University of California at Berkeley
Previous Experience:
Deputy Division Chief, Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund 2010-2011
Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2007-2010
Resident Representative, International Monetary Fund, Montevideo, Uruguay, 2005-2007
Economist, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Assignments in the Research, European, International Capital Markets, and Western Hemisphere Departments
Visiting Researcher, Banco de México, Mexico City, Research Department, May-June 1997
Consultant, World Bank, Washington, D.C., Middle East and North Africa Department II, 1995
Parliamentary Aide to Minister of State Helmut Schäfer (German First Deputy Foreign Minister), 1989-91, 1992-94
Refereed Activities:
Referee for Applied Economics, American Economic Review, Economic Inquiry, Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Inter-American Development Bank, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, Journal of International Money and Finance, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Review of International Economics, Routledge books, Trimestre Económico
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?, Working Paper No. 12/225, September 01, 2012
International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion-A Survey, Working Paper No. 11/92, April 01, 2011
The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact, Working Paper No. 09/280, December 01, 2009
Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization: The Case of Uruguay, Occasional Paper No. 263, July 25, 2008
Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance -Trying to Explain the Puzzle, Working Paper No. 06/282, December 01, 2006
Banking Spreads in Latin America, Working Paper No. 06/44, February 01, 2006
What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis, Working Paper No. 05/109, June 01, 2005
Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?, Working Paper No. 04/221, November 01, 2004
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion, Working Paper No. 04/131, July 01, 2004
Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?, Working Paper No. 04/111, June 01, 2004
Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?, Working Paper No. 03/49, March 01, 2003
Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems, Working Paper No. 02/186, November 01, 2002
Transparency and International Investor Behavior, Working Paper No. 02/174, October 01, 2002
The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds, Working Paper No. 01/111, August 01, 2001
A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds, Working Paper No. 00/198, December 01, 2000
Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies, Working Paper No. 00/71, March 01, 2000
Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market - The Case of Mexico in 1994/95, Working Paper No. 00/28, January 01, 2000
Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral - Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector, Working Paper No. 99/25, March 01, 1999
Publications in Refereed Journals
"The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact," (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J.P. Walsh), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2012
"Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?” (with Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris), Journal of International Economics, March 2011
“Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance: Trying to Explain the Puzzle,” (with Ricardo Adrogué and Martin Cerisola), Journal of Economic Studies, September 2010
"Banking Spreads in Latin America," Economic Inquiry, October 2009
“What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? – An Empirical Analysis” (with Martín Cerisola), Applied Economics, May 2009
“When in Peril, Retrench – Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion” (with Fernando Broner and Carmen Reinhart), Journal of International Economics, June 2006
“Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings” (with Shang-Jin Wei), Journal of Finance, December 2005
“Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), IMF Staff Papers, November 2004
“Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?,” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), Economic Policy, October 2004
“Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Markets Banking Systems,“ (with Jorge Roldós), Emerging Markets Review, March 2004
“A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds,” (with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, April 2003
“Leaders and Followers: Emerging Market Fund Behavior During Tranquil and Turbulent Times”, (with Eduardo Borensztein), Emerging Markets Review, March 2003
“Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets: Firm-Level Evidence From Mexico”, Economics Letters, March 2003
“Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market – A New Measure and an Application to Mexico 1994/95,” (with T. Becker and A. Richards), International Journal of Economics and Finance, July 2002
“Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral: Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector” (with Alejandro Werner), Journal of Development Economics, February 2002
“Irreversibilities in Fixed Capital Adjustment: Evidence from Mexican and Colombian Plants,” (with Alberto Isgut), Economics Letters, December 2001
“Fixed Capital Adjustment - Is Latin America Different?” (with Alberto Isgut), Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2001
“Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies,” (with Ratna Sahay), 2001, Economics of Transition, Vol. 1, March 2001
“La Inversión Fija en México - Una Revisión Selectiva,” Gaceta de Economía, December 1999
IMF Country Reports
“Commodity Prices – Their Impact on Inflation in Uruguay” (with Rita Babihuga), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 09/103
"The Inflation Process in Uruguay," (with Fernanda Rossi Iriondo), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, Country Report 08/46
“Post-Crisis Credit: Facts, Lessons, and Prospects” (with Jorge Canales-Kriljenko), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 06/427
“Why is Private Sector Credit so Low in Bulgaria?,” (with Tarhan Feyzioðlu), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 00/54
"Does Bulgaria Suffer from a Competitiveness Problem? A Look at Real Exchange Rate Indicators and Export Performance,” (with Angana Banerji), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues,” IMF Staff Country Report 00/54
Media Publications
"Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Econbrowser (www.econbrowser.com), December 2012
“The global crisis – why were some countries hit harder?” (with Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh), VoxEu, www.voxeu.com
“Transparenz schützt Schwellenländer,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 26, 2009
Other IMF Publications
“Differential Impact” (with Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2012
“A Survey of Financial Linkages,” (with Martin Cerisola, Geoffrey Banister, and Fabian Valencia), in: (Mühleisen, Martin, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, eds: “Who’s Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the America,” International Monetary Fund, October 2008
“Shocks to Balance Sheets and Emerging Market Crises,” IMF Research Bulletin, March 2003
“Are Foreign Investors in Emerging Market Economies A Panic-Prone Herd?” (with Eduardo Borensztein), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2001
Other/Non-IMF Publications
"International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion," in: G. Caprio, Jr. (ed.): "Handbooks in Financial Globalization," Elsevier
“Contagion and the Behavior of International Equity Funds,” in: Karman, A., M. Frenkel, and B. Scholtens (eds.): “Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises,” 2004, Springer-Verlag
"Financial Market Spillovers – How Different Are the Transition Economies?,” (with Ratna Sahay), in: Forbes, K. and S. Claessens (eds.): “International Financial Contagion,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
“Investment Efficiency, Human Capital and Migration: A Productivity Analysis of the Jordanian Economy,” World Bank Regional Discussion Paper No.14, 5/1995