M. Ayhan Kose
Last Updated: October 24, 2009
Ayhan Kose is Assistant to the Director in the IMF Research Department. He previously worked for the United States and Canada desks of the IMF Western Hemisphere Department. Before joining the IMF, he was Assistant Professor at Brandeis International Business School. His research focuses on financial globalization, macro-financial linkages, emerging markets and business cycles. He has authored a number of policy-oriented papers on these topics. Technical versions of many of these papers have been published in leading academic journals, such as the American Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. His research has been featured in various media outlets, including the Economist, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal. He is the Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review and the Editor of IMF Research Bulletin.
Email: akose@imf.org
Fluent In: Turkish.
Employment:
2001-Present: International Monetary Fund; Assistant to the Director, Research Department (2009-present); Senior Economist, Research Department (2008-2009); Economist, Research Department and Western Hemisphere Department (2001-2008)
1997-2001: Brandeis University; Assistant Professor, Brandeis International Business School and Department of Economics
Education:
1997: Ph.D. in Economics, H. B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa.
1992: B.S. in Industrial Engineering, Bilkent University, Ankara-Turkey.
Referee:
Referee for numerous academic journals, publishing companies and research institutions.
Current Research Topics:
Recessions and Recoveries
Financial Globalization and Crises
International Business Cycles
Linkages Between Macroeconomics and Finance
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses, Working Paper No. 09/40, March 01, 2009
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 264, December 16, 2008
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?, Working Paper No. 08/274, December 01, 2008
Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?, Working Paper No. 08/242, October 01, 2008
Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?, Working Paper No. 08/143, June 01, 2008
Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations, Working Paper No. 07/280, December 01, 2007
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels, Working Paper No. 07/238, October 01, 2007
Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal, Working Paper No. 06/189, August 01, 2006
How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?, Working Paper No. 06/46, February 01, 2006
Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles, Working Paper No. 05/211, November 01, 2005
Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement?, Working Paper No. 05/204, October 01, 2005
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?, Working Paper No. 05/19, January 01, 2005
Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America, Working Paper No. 04/138, August 01, 2004
How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence, Working Paper No. 04/59, April 01, 2004
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration, Working Paper No. 03/246, December 01, 2003
Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence, Occasional Paper No. 220, September 03, 2003
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility, Working Paper No. 03/50, March 01, 2003
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?, Working Paper No. 03/27, January 01, 2003
Papers in Refereed Journals
“What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Economic Policy, 60, 653-700, 2009.
“Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk Sharing?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of Development Economics, 89, 258-270, 2009.
“Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, IMF Staff Papers, 56, 8-62, 2009 (Lead Article).
“Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, 554-580, 2009.
“Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles” with Chris Otrok and Charles Whiteman, Journal of International Economics, 75, 110-30, 2008.
“Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations” with Cigdem Akin, Journal of Asian Economics, 19, 1-28, 2008 (Lead Article).
“How Different is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?” with Bill Blankenau, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11, 56-78, 2007.
“Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA” with Hideaki Hirata and Henry Kim, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 43, 5-34, 2007(Lead Article).
“Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” with Kei-Mu Yi, Journal of International Economics, 68, 267-295, 2006 (Lead Article).
“How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Economics, 69, 176-202, 2006.
“How Might CAFTA Change Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Central America?” with Alessandro Rebucci, Journal of Asian Economics, 16, 77-104, 2005.
“Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, IMF Staff Papers, 52, 31-63, 2005.
“Integration and Fluctuations: The Case of MENA” with Hideaki Hirata and Henry Kim, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40, 48-67, 2004.
“International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country Specific Factors,” with Chris Otrok and Charles Whiteman, American Economic Review, 93, 1216-1239, 2003.
“Dynamics of Open Economy Business Cycle Models: Understanding the Role of the Discount Factor,” with Henry Kim, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 7, 263-290, 2003.
“How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 93, 57-62, 2003.
“Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, IMF Staff Papers, 50, 119-142, 2003.
“Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia,” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, Review of Development Economics, 7, 462-477, 2003.
“Explaining Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: How much do world prices matter?” Journal of International Economics, 56, 299-327, 2002.
“Small Countries and Preferential Trade Agreements: How Severe is the Innocent Bystander Problem?” with Raymond Riezman, Pacific Economic Review, 7, 279-304, 2002.
“International Trade and Business Cycles” with Kei-Mu Yi, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 91, 371-375, 2001.
“Can World Real Interest Rates Explain Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy?” with Bill Blankenau and Kei-Mu Yi, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 867-889, 2001.
“Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa,” with Raymond Riezman, Journal of Development Economics,65, 55-80, 2001.
“Understanding the Asian Contagion,” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, Asian Economic Journal, 15, no:2, 111-138. 2001. (Lead Article)
“Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements,” with Raymond Riezman, Review of International Economics, 8, 619-633, 2000.
Papers in Books/Periodicals
“Financial Globalization and Economic Policies” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, forthcoming in the Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 5, in Dani Rodrik and Mark R. Rosenzweig eds., Elsevier.
“Financial Stress and Economic Activity” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones BRSA Journal of Banking and Financial Markets, vol:2, no: 2, 11-24, 2008. (Lead Article)
“Managing Large Capital Inflows” with Roberto Cardarelli and Selim Elekdag World Economic Outlook, 105-134, October 2007.
“Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, in Ann Harrison ed., Globalization and Poverty, NBER Conference Volume, Chicago University Press, 451-509, 2007.
“Decoupling the Train: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy” with Thomas Helbling, Peter Berezin, Nikola Spatafora, Michael Kumhof and Douglas Laxton World Economic Outlook, 121-160, April 2007.
“Macroeconomic Implications of CAFTA-DR,” with Alessandro Rebucci and Alfred Schipke, in Markus Rodlauer and Alfred Schipke ed., Central America: Global Integration and Regional Cooperation, IMF Occasional Paper No:243, 7-40, 2005.
“How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence” with Guy Meredith and Christopher Towe, in Rolf J. Langhammer and Lucio Vinhas de Souza ed., Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, 35-81, Springer, 2005.
“Economic Integration, Business Cycle and Productivity in North America,” with Roberto Cardarelli, in Larry Schembri ed., Canada in the Global Economy, 451-497, The Bank of Canada Publications, 2005.
“The Economic Impact of U.S. Budget Policies” with Roberto Cardarelli, in Christopher Towe and Martin Muhleisen ed., U.S. Fiscal Policies and Priorities for Long-Run Sustainability, IMF Occasional Paper No:227, 2004.
“Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, in Horst Siebert ed., Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, Springer, 89-122, 2004.
“Contagion or Simple Transmission of Business Cycles? The Case of the Asian Crisis” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, in Richard Hooley and Jang-Hee Yoo ed., The Post-Financial Crisis Challenges for Asian Industrialization, JAI-Elsevier Science, Research in Asian Economic Studies, 10, 43-91, 2002.
“External Shocks and Economic Dynamics: The Case of African Countries,” with Raymond Riezman, Journal of African Finance and Economic Development, 3, 1-42, 1998. (Lead Article)
“Income Distribution and the Bretton Woods Institutions,” with Enrique Carrasco, Transnational Law and Contemporary Problems, 6, 2-40, 1996. (Lead Article)
Ayhan Kose is Assistant to the Director in the IMF Research Department. He previously worked for the United States and Canada desks of the IMF Western Hemisphere Department. Before joining the IMF, he was Assistant Professor at Brandeis International Business School. His research focuses on financial globalization, macro-financial linkages, emerging markets and business cycles. He has authored a number of policy-oriented papers on these topics. Technical versions of many of these papers have been published in leading academic journals, such as the American Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. His research has been featured in various media outlets, including the Economist, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal. He is the Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review and the Editor of IMF Research Bulletin.
Email: akose@imf.org
Fluent In: Turkish.
Employment:
2001-Present: International Monetary Fund; Assistant to the Director, Research Department (2009-present); Senior Economist, Research Department (2008-2009); Economist, Research Department and Western Hemisphere Department (2001-2008)
1997-2001: Brandeis University; Assistant Professor, Brandeis International Business School and Department of Economics
Education:
1997: Ph.D. in Economics, H. B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa.
1992: B.S. in Industrial Engineering, Bilkent University, Ankara-Turkey.
Referee:
Referee for numerous academic journals, publishing companies and research institutions.
Current Research Topics:
Recessions and Recoveries
Financial Globalization and Crises
International Business Cycles
Linkages Between Macroeconomics and Finance
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses, Working Paper No. 09/40, March 01, 2009
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 264, December 16, 2008
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?, Working Paper No. 08/274, December 01, 2008
Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?, Working Paper No. 08/242, October 01, 2008
Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?, Working Paper No. 08/143, June 01, 2008
Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations, Working Paper No. 07/280, December 01, 2007
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels, Working Paper No. 07/238, October 01, 2007
Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal, Working Paper No. 06/189, August 01, 2006
How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?, Working Paper No. 06/46, February 01, 2006
Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles, Working Paper No. 05/211, November 01, 2005
Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement?, Working Paper No. 05/204, October 01, 2005
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?, Working Paper No. 05/19, January 01, 2005
Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America, Working Paper No. 04/138, August 01, 2004
How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence, Working Paper No. 04/59, April 01, 2004
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration, Working Paper No. 03/246, December 01, 2003
Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence, Occasional Paper No. 220, September 03, 2003
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility, Working Paper No. 03/50, March 01, 2003
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?, Working Paper No. 03/27, January 01, 2003
Papers in Refereed Journals
“What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones, Economic Policy, 60, 653-700, 2009.
“Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk Sharing?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of Development Economics, 89, 258-270, 2009.
“Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, IMF Staff Papers, 56, 8-62, 2009 (Lead Article).
“Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, 554-580, 2009.
“Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles” with Chris Otrok and Charles Whiteman, Journal of International Economics, 75, 110-30, 2008.
“Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations” with Cigdem Akin, Journal of Asian Economics, 19, 1-28, 2008 (Lead Article).
“How Different is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?” with Bill Blankenau, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11, 56-78, 2007.
“Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA” with Hideaki Hirata and Henry Kim, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 43, 5-34, 2007(Lead Article).
“Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” with Kei-Mu Yi, Journal of International Economics, 68, 267-295, 2006 (Lead Article).
“How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, Journal of International Economics, 69, 176-202, 2006.
“How Might CAFTA Change Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Central America?” with Alessandro Rebucci, Journal of Asian Economics, 16, 77-104, 2005.
“Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, IMF Staff Papers, 52, 31-63, 2005.
“Integration and Fluctuations: The Case of MENA” with Hideaki Hirata and Henry Kim, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40, 48-67, 2004.
“International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country Specific Factors,” with Chris Otrok and Charles Whiteman, American Economic Review, 93, 1216-1239, 2003.
“Dynamics of Open Economy Business Cycle Models: Understanding the Role of the Discount Factor,” with Henry Kim, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 7, 263-290, 2003.
“How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 93, 57-62, 2003.
“Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, IMF Staff Papers, 50, 119-142, 2003.
“Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia,” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, Review of Development Economics, 7, 462-477, 2003.
“Explaining Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: How much do world prices matter?” Journal of International Economics, 56, 299-327, 2002.
“Small Countries and Preferential Trade Agreements: How Severe is the Innocent Bystander Problem?” with Raymond Riezman, Pacific Economic Review, 7, 279-304, 2002.
“International Trade and Business Cycles” with Kei-Mu Yi, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 91, 371-375, 2001.
“Can World Real Interest Rates Explain Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy?” with Bill Blankenau and Kei-Mu Yi, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 867-889, 2001.
“Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa,” with Raymond Riezman, Journal of Development Economics,65, 55-80, 2001.
“Understanding the Asian Contagion,” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, Asian Economic Journal, 15, no:2, 111-138. 2001. (Lead Article)
“Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements,” with Raymond Riezman, Review of International Economics, 8, 619-633, 2000.
Papers in Books/Periodicals
“Financial Globalization and Economic Policies” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, forthcoming in the Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 5, in Dani Rodrik and Mark R. Rosenzweig eds., Elsevier.
“Financial Stress and Economic Activity” with Stijn Claessens and Marco Terrones BRSA Journal of Banking and Financial Markets, vol:2, no: 2, 11-24, 2008. (Lead Article)
“Managing Large Capital Inflows” with Roberto Cardarelli and Selim Elekdag World Economic Outlook, 105-134, October 2007.
“Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries” with Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei, in Ann Harrison ed., Globalization and Poverty, NBER Conference Volume, Chicago University Press, 451-509, 2007.
“Decoupling the Train: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy” with Thomas Helbling, Peter Berezin, Nikola Spatafora, Michael Kumhof and Douglas Laxton World Economic Outlook, 121-160, April 2007.
“Macroeconomic Implications of CAFTA-DR,” with Alessandro Rebucci and Alfred Schipke, in Markus Rodlauer and Alfred Schipke ed., Central America: Global Integration and Regional Cooperation, IMF Occasional Paper No:243, 7-40, 2005.
“How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence” with Guy Meredith and Christopher Towe, in Rolf J. Langhammer and Lucio Vinhas de Souza ed., Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, 35-81, Springer, 2005.
“Economic Integration, Business Cycle and Productivity in North America,” with Roberto Cardarelli, in Larry Schembri ed., Canada in the Global Economy, 451-497, The Bank of Canada Publications, 2005.
“The Economic Impact of U.S. Budget Policies” with Roberto Cardarelli, in Christopher Towe and Martin Muhleisen ed., U.S. Fiscal Policies and Priorities for Long-Run Sustainability, IMF Occasional Paper No:227, 2004.
“Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration” with Eswar Prasad and Marco Terrones, in Horst Siebert ed., Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, Springer, 89-122, 2004.
“Contagion or Simple Transmission of Business Cycles? The Case of the Asian Crisis” with Henry Kim and Michael Plummer, in Richard Hooley and Jang-Hee Yoo ed., The Post-Financial Crisis Challenges for Asian Industrialization, JAI-Elsevier Science, Research in Asian Economic Studies, 10, 43-91, 2002.
“External Shocks and Economic Dynamics: The Case of African Countries,” with Raymond Riezman, Journal of African Finance and Economic Development, 3, 1-42, 1998. (Lead Article)
“Income Distribution and the Bretton Woods Institutions,” with Enrique Carrasco, Transnational Law and Contemporary Problems, 6, 2-40, 1996. (Lead Article)