Luis Catão
Last Updated: November 30, 2011
Luis Catão’s research spans international finance and open economy macroeconomics, with particular emphasis on business cycles, monetary and exchange rate policy, and sovereign risk. It has been published in the American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Development Economics, IMF Staff Papers, as well as in several edited volumes, and has received press coverage by The Economist, Dow Jones News, The Washington Post, The Herald Tribune, Valor Econômico, and Exame. Dr. Catão’s previous appointments include a Senior Economist position in the Office of the Chief Economist at the Inter-American Development Bank, an Associate Professorship at the University of London, and a Research Fellowship in the Latin American Institute of the same University. He holds a BSc in Electrical Engineering as well as a BA in Economics (with honors) from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge. He is a national of Brazil and Portugal.
Email: lcatao@imf.org
Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pca144.html
Fluent In: French, Portuguese, Spanish.
Education:
PhD in Economics, University of Cambridge, 1992.
MPhil in Economics, University of Cambridge, 1987.
BA (Honors) in Economics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 1985.
BSc in Electrical Engineering, UFF, Rio de Janeiro, 1985.
Previous Experience:
2007-2010: Senior Economist, Chief Economist Office, Inter-American Development Bank.
1996-2006: Country Economist (grades A12 and A13), and Senior Economist, IMF.
1994-1995: Economist Program (grade A11), International Monetary Fund.
1993: Assistant Professor (tenure track), University of London.
Refereed Activities:
American Economic Association Macro Journal, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Financial Econometrics, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Oxford Economic Papers, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Journal of Macroeconomics, Economics Letters
Awards and Honors:
Research Scholarship, Ellen McCarthur Fund, University of Cambridge, 1990
Luca D’agliano Foundation (Italy) grant for fieldwork in developing countries, 1989
Finley Bursar Award for PhD research, Darwin College, Cambridge, 1989
Post-Graduate Research Grant, Ministry of Science and Technology, Brazil, 1986-90
Junior Scientist Research Grant (“Bolsa de Iniciacão Cientifica”), Ministry of Science and Technology, Brazil, 1983-84
Seminar Presentation:
Central Bank of Bolivia Annual Conference, World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, La Paz, July 2011.
NBER Summer Camp 2011, paper on “Sudden Stops and Sovereign Defaults” , Cambridge, Mass, July 2011.
Society of Economic Dynamics Conference, “Sudden Stops and Sovereign Defaults” (co-authored with Ana Fostel and Romain Ranciere), June 2011.
Bank of Italy, seminar on Global Commodity Inflation, October 2010.
Brazilian Planning Ministry Research Institute (IPEA), seminar on Formal Credit and Formal Employment in Brazil, September 2010
Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-RJ), seminar on World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, September 2010
World Econometric Society Conference, Shanguai, paper on World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, August 2010
International Monetary Fund, seminar on World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, August 2010.
Central Bank of Chile, Conference on Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence, paper on monetary transmission in Brazil and Chile, 23-24th, Nov. 2009.
European Econometric Society Conference, paper on Food and Monetary Policy, August 22-24th, 2009
University of Manchester, Business Cycle Conference, paper on Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles, June 29-30th, 2009.
CEPAL, Conference Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies, Discussant of paper on Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies, Chile, April 10-11th, 2008
Federal Reserve Board of New York, Conference on Exchange Rates and Prices, New York, December 6-7th, 2007
IMF, Western Hemisphere Department Seminar, paper on Monetary Transmission in Brazil, November 28th, 2007.
Central Bank of Brazil, Annual Inflation Target Conference, paper on Monetary Transmission in Brazil, August 24th, 2007
University of Warwick, World Economy and Global Finance Workshop, paper on Persistent Gaps and Default Traps, July 13th, 2007
George Washington University, Lecture on International Capital Flows (April 23, 2007)
IMF, Financial Globalization Conference, paper on Persistent Gaps and Default Traps, April 24-26, 2007 Washington, DC.
NBER International Finance Meeting, paper on Persistent Gaps and Default Traps, (Boston, March, 2007).
Inter-American Development Bank, seminar presentation on Sovereign Defaults (Washington, January 2007)
LACEA annual conference (Mexico, October 2006), paper on persistent gaps and default traps
European Econometric Society Conference (Vienna, August 2006), paper on persistent gaps and default traps
PUC-Rio de Janeiro, macro seminar, paper on Latin America’s Business Cycles (July, 2006)
World Bank, macro seminar, paper on Latin America’s Business Cycles (March, 2006)
Harvard University Workshop, paper on Export-led growth in Brazil and Mexico (February, 2006)
American Economic Association conference, paper on (Boston, January 2006)
Inter-American Development Bank, paper on Latin America’s Business Cycles (November, 2005)
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Policy: Present and Past conference (Viena, September, 2005)
Work in progress:
“Imported Commodity Inflation and Inflation Targeting” [joint with Roberto Chang]
“Net Foreign Liabilities and Crises” [joint with Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti]
“Fiscal Discoveries, Stops and Defaults” [joint with Ana Fostel and Romain Ranciére]
“Default Premium” [Joint with Ana Fostel and Rui Mano]
“Public Investment and Fiscal Cyclicality” [joint with Carlos Végh]
“A Simple Model-Based Approach to the Joint Estimation of Macro Gaps”
“Banking and Monetary Transmission in Emerging Economies” [joint with Roberto Chang]
“Credit and Manufacturing Growth in Brazil” [joint with Paulo Bastos, Márcio Garcia and Sergio Mikio]
“Great Imbalances and Great Recessions.” [joint with Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Philip Lane].
IMF Books and Working Papers:
World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy, Working Paper No. 13/114, May 17, 2013
External Liabilities and Crises, Working Paper No. 13/113, May 16, 2013
World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, Working Paper No. 10/161, July 01, 2010
Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil, Working Paper No. 08/191, August 01, 2008
Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps, Working Paper No. 07/148, June 01, 2007
Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look, Working Paper No. 06/133, May 01, 2006
Perspectives on Low Global Interest Rates, Working Paper No. 06/76, March 01, 2006
Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles, Working Paper No. 06/49, February 01, 2006
Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox, Working Paper No. 04/51, March 01, 2004
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, Working Paper No. 03/65, April 01, 2003
Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns, Working Paper No. 03/52, March 01, 2003
Exchange Rates in the Periphery and International Adjustment Under the Gold Standard, Working Paper No. 03/41, February 01, 2003
Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility, Working Paper No. 02/149, September 01, 2002
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence, Working Paper No. 01/74, May 01, 2001
The New Economy and Global Stock Return, Working Paper No. 00/216, December 01, 2000
Determinants of Dollarization - The Banking Side, Working Paper No. 00/146, August 01, 2000
Banks and Monetary Shocks in Emerging Markets - How Far Can We Go With the "Credit View"?, Working Paper No. 00/68, March 01, 2000
Determinants of Argentina's External Trade, Working Paper No. 99/121, September 01, 1999
Intermediation Spreads in a Dual Currency Economy-Argentina in the 1990s, Working Paper No. 98/90, June 01, 1998
Bank Credit in Argentina in the Aftermath of the Mexican Crisis: Supply or Demand Constrained?, Working Paper No. 97/32, March 01, 1997
Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: A Vector Autoregression Approach, Working Paper No. 95/40, April 01, 1995
Books
The Failure of Export–Led Growth in Brazil and Mexico, Institute of Latin American Studies Monograph series, University of London, 1993
Articles
“Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles”, Journal of Development Economics, 95, pp. 212-228, 2011 (with Marco Aiolfi and Allan Timmemann)
“Default Traps”, in Kolb, R. (ed.) Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default, John Wiley & Sons, 2011. (with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur)
“The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach”, in Céspedes, L. et al. (eds.), Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence, Central Bank of Chile, March 2011 (with Adrian Pagan)
“Volatility Regimes and Global Stock Returns”, in Bollerslev, T., J. Russell, and M.Watson (eds), Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert Engle, Oxford Economic Press, December 2009 (with Allan Timmermann)
“Persistent Gaps and Default Traps”, Journal of Development Economics 89, pp.271-284 (with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur), 2009
“Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look”, in Sebastian Edwards et. al. (eds.), The Decline of Latin American Economies, NBER/ University of Chicago, 2007
Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 56, No.3, pp.195-218, June 2006. (with Sandeep Kapur)
“Effective Exchange Rates and the Classical Gold Standard Adjustment”, American Economic Review, 95(4), pp. 1259-75, September 2005. (with Solomos Solomou)
“Fiscal Deficits and Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 529-54, April 2005. (with Marco Terrones)
“Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade”, Journal of Applied Economics, May 2002, pp.19-57 (with Elisabetta Falcetti)
“Mexico and Export-Led Growth: the Porfirian Era Revisited”, C.J.E,, vol.22, no.1, January 1998, pp.59-78
“Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: Identifying the Shocks", National Institute Economic Review, July 1996 (with R.Ramaswamy)
The Failure of Export–Led Growth in Brazil and Mexico, Institute of Latin American Studies Monograph series, University of London, 1993
“A New Wholesale Price Index for Brazil during the Period 1870-1913”, Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol. 46(4), Oct.-Dec. 1992, pp.519-33
“Do Tratado de Probabilidade a Teoria Geral: O Conceito de Racionalidade em Keynes”, Revista de Economia Política, Vol. 12, No.1, Jan/Mar 1992, pp.60-75
Journal Articles
“Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles”, Journal of Development Economics, 95, pp. 212-228, 2011 (with Marco Aiolfi and Allan Timmemann)
“The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach”, in Céspedes, L. et al. (eds.), Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence, Central Bank of Chile, March 2011 (with Adrian Pagan)
“Persistent Gaps and Default Traps”, Journal of Development Economics 89, pp.271-284 (with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur), 2009
Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 56, No.3, pp.195-218, June 2006. (with Sandeep Kapur)
“Effective Exchange Rates and the Classical Gold Standard Adjustment”, American Economic Review, 95(4), pp. 1259-75, September 2005. (with Solomos Solomou)
“Fiscal Deficits and Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 529-54, April 2005. (with Marco Terrones)
“Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade”, Journal of Applied Economics, May 2002, pp.19-57 (with Elisabetta Falcetti)
“Mexico and Export-Led Growth: the Porfirian Era Revisited”, C.J.E,, vol.22, no.1, January 1998, pp.59-78
“Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: Identifying the Shocks", National Institute Economic Review, July 1996 (with R.Ramaswamy)
“A New Wholesale Price Index for Brazil during the Period 1870-1913”, Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol. 46(4), Oct.-Dec. 1992, pp.519-33
“Do Tratado de Probabilidade a Teoria Geral: O Conceito de Racionalidade em Keynes”, Revista de Economia Política, Vol. 12, No.1, Jan/Mar 1992, pp.60-75
Media Publications
“O Alimento e a Guerra Cambial”, Valor Econômico, 7 June 2011
“Alimentos e a Política Econômica”, Valor Econômico, 10 February 2011
“Global Food Prices and Inflation Targeting”, VOX-EU, 27 January 2011 (with Roberto Chang)
“Will Food Prices Kill the Recovery?”, Time/CNN, 20 January 2011
“Informalidade no Brasil”, Exame, July 28th, 2010
“A Retomada do Crédito”, Estado de São Paulo, p.8, 21 April 2010
“Um Bonus da Estabilidade: O Crédito e o Emprego Formal”, Valor Econômico, p.16, October 2008
The International Herald Tribune, April 9th, 2001 (article by James K. Glassman on paper “The New Economy and Global Stock Returns”)
The Economist, March 24th, 2001 (section “Economic Focus” on the same paper)
Down Jones International News,, April 18th, 2003 (article by John Connor on the paper “Fiscal Deficits and Inflation”)
Valor Econômico, June 8th, 2006 (article by Maria Clara do Prado on the paper “Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look”)
Other IMF Publications
“Backcasting Latin America”, Finance and Development, December 2007, pp.39-43.
“Why Real Exchange Rates”, Finance and Development, September 2007, pp.46-47
Other Papers, Books, Comments
“Comments on ‘A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity Exporters in Latin America’ by Jeffrey Frankel”, Economía, 12(1), Fall 2011.
The Aftermath of the Crisis. Policy Lessons and Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, Inter-American Development Bank, March 2010
All That Glitters May Not be Gold: Assessing Latin America’s Recent Economic Performance, Inter-American Development Bank, April 2009
Luis Catão’s research spans international finance and open economy macroeconomics, with particular emphasis on business cycles, monetary and exchange rate policy, and sovereign risk. It has been published in the American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Development Economics, IMF Staff Papers, as well as in several edited volumes, and has received press coverage by The Economist, Dow Jones News, The Washington Post, The Herald Tribune, Valor Econômico, and Exame. Dr. Catão’s previous appointments include a Senior Economist position in the Office of the Chief Economist at the Inter-American Development Bank, an Associate Professorship at the University of London, and a Research Fellowship in the Latin American Institute of the same University. He holds a BSc in Electrical Engineering as well as a BA in Economics (with honors) from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge. He is a national of Brazil and Portugal.
Email: lcatao@imf.org
Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pca144.html
Fluent In: French, Portuguese, Spanish.
Education:
PhD in Economics, University of Cambridge, 1992.
MPhil in Economics, University of Cambridge, 1987.
BA (Honors) in Economics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 1985.
BSc in Electrical Engineering, UFF, Rio de Janeiro, 1985.
Previous Experience:
2007-2010: Senior Economist, Chief Economist Office, Inter-American Development Bank.
1996-2006: Country Economist (grades A12 and A13), and Senior Economist, IMF.
1994-1995: Economist Program (grade A11), International Monetary Fund.
1993: Assistant Professor (tenure track), University of London.
Refereed Activities:
American Economic Association Macro Journal, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Financial Econometrics, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Oxford Economic Papers, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Journal of Macroeconomics, Economics Letters
Awards and Honors:
Research Scholarship, Ellen McCarthur Fund, University of Cambridge, 1990
Luca D’agliano Foundation (Italy) grant for fieldwork in developing countries, 1989
Finley Bursar Award for PhD research, Darwin College, Cambridge, 1989
Post-Graduate Research Grant, Ministry of Science and Technology, Brazil, 1986-90
Junior Scientist Research Grant (“Bolsa de Iniciacão Cientifica”), Ministry of Science and Technology, Brazil, 1983-84
Seminar Presentation:
Central Bank of Bolivia Annual Conference, World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, La Paz, July 2011.
NBER Summer Camp 2011, paper on “Sudden Stops and Sovereign Defaults” , Cambridge, Mass, July 2011.
Society of Economic Dynamics Conference, “Sudden Stops and Sovereign Defaults” (co-authored with Ana Fostel and Romain Ranciere), June 2011.
Bank of Italy, seminar on Global Commodity Inflation, October 2010.
Brazilian Planning Ministry Research Institute (IPEA), seminar on Formal Credit and Formal Employment in Brazil, September 2010
Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-RJ), seminar on World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, September 2010
World Econometric Society Conference, Shanguai, paper on World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, August 2010
International Monetary Fund, seminar on World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, August 2010.
Central Bank of Chile, Conference on Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence, paper on monetary transmission in Brazil and Chile, 23-24th, Nov. 2009.
European Econometric Society Conference, paper on Food and Monetary Policy, August 22-24th, 2009
University of Manchester, Business Cycle Conference, paper on Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles, June 29-30th, 2009.
CEPAL, Conference Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies, Discussant of paper on Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies, Chile, April 10-11th, 2008
Federal Reserve Board of New York, Conference on Exchange Rates and Prices, New York, December 6-7th, 2007
IMF, Western Hemisphere Department Seminar, paper on Monetary Transmission in Brazil, November 28th, 2007.
Central Bank of Brazil, Annual Inflation Target Conference, paper on Monetary Transmission in Brazil, August 24th, 2007
University of Warwick, World Economy and Global Finance Workshop, paper on Persistent Gaps and Default Traps, July 13th, 2007
George Washington University, Lecture on International Capital Flows (April 23, 2007)
IMF, Financial Globalization Conference, paper on Persistent Gaps and Default Traps, April 24-26, 2007 Washington, DC.
NBER International Finance Meeting, paper on Persistent Gaps and Default Traps, (Boston, March, 2007).
Inter-American Development Bank, seminar presentation on Sovereign Defaults (Washington, January 2007)
LACEA annual conference (Mexico, October 2006), paper on persistent gaps and default traps
European Econometric Society Conference (Vienna, August 2006), paper on persistent gaps and default traps
PUC-Rio de Janeiro, macro seminar, paper on Latin America’s Business Cycles (July, 2006)
World Bank, macro seminar, paper on Latin America’s Business Cycles (March, 2006)
Harvard University Workshop, paper on Export-led growth in Brazil and Mexico (February, 2006)
American Economic Association conference, paper on (Boston, January 2006)
Inter-American Development Bank, paper on Latin America’s Business Cycles (November, 2005)
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Policy: Present and Past conference (Viena, September, 2005)
Work in progress:
“Imported Commodity Inflation and Inflation Targeting” [joint with Roberto Chang]
“Net Foreign Liabilities and Crises” [joint with Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti]
“Fiscal Discoveries, Stops and Defaults” [joint with Ana Fostel and Romain Ranciére]
“Default Premium” [Joint with Ana Fostel and Rui Mano]
“Public Investment and Fiscal Cyclicality” [joint with Carlos Végh]
“A Simple Model-Based Approach to the Joint Estimation of Macro Gaps”
“Banking and Monetary Transmission in Emerging Economies” [joint with Roberto Chang]
“Credit and Manufacturing Growth in Brazil” [joint with Paulo Bastos, Márcio Garcia and Sergio Mikio]
“Great Imbalances and Great Recessions.” [joint with Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Philip Lane].
IMF Books and Working Papers:
World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy, Working Paper No. 13/114, May 17, 2013
External Liabilities and Crises, Working Paper No. 13/113, May 16, 2013
World Food Prices and Monetary Policy, Working Paper No. 10/161, July 01, 2010
Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil, Working Paper No. 08/191, August 01, 2008
Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps, Working Paper No. 07/148, June 01, 2007
Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look, Working Paper No. 06/133, May 01, 2006
Perspectives on Low Global Interest Rates, Working Paper No. 06/76, March 01, 2006
Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles, Working Paper No. 06/49, February 01, 2006
Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox, Working Paper No. 04/51, March 01, 2004
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, Working Paper No. 03/65, April 01, 2003
Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns, Working Paper No. 03/52, March 01, 2003
Exchange Rates in the Periphery and International Adjustment Under the Gold Standard, Working Paper No. 03/41, February 01, 2003
Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility, Working Paper No. 02/149, September 01, 2002
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence, Working Paper No. 01/74, May 01, 2001
The New Economy and Global Stock Return, Working Paper No. 00/216, December 01, 2000
Determinants of Dollarization - The Banking Side, Working Paper No. 00/146, August 01, 2000
Banks and Monetary Shocks in Emerging Markets - How Far Can We Go With the "Credit View"?, Working Paper No. 00/68, March 01, 2000
Determinants of Argentina's External Trade, Working Paper No. 99/121, September 01, 1999
Intermediation Spreads in a Dual Currency Economy-Argentina in the 1990s, Working Paper No. 98/90, June 01, 1998
Bank Credit in Argentina in the Aftermath of the Mexican Crisis: Supply or Demand Constrained?, Working Paper No. 97/32, March 01, 1997
Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: A Vector Autoregression Approach, Working Paper No. 95/40, April 01, 1995
Books
The Failure of Export–Led Growth in Brazil and Mexico, Institute of Latin American Studies Monograph series, University of London, 1993
Articles
“Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles”, Journal of Development Economics, 95, pp. 212-228, 2011 (with Marco Aiolfi and Allan Timmemann)
“Default Traps”, in Kolb, R. (ed.) Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default, John Wiley & Sons, 2011. (with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur)
“The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach”, in Céspedes, L. et al. (eds.), Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence, Central Bank of Chile, March 2011 (with Adrian Pagan)
“Volatility Regimes and Global Stock Returns”, in Bollerslev, T., J. Russell, and M.Watson (eds), Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert Engle, Oxford Economic Press, December 2009 (with Allan Timmermann)
“Persistent Gaps and Default Traps”, Journal of Development Economics 89, pp.271-284 (with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur), 2009
“Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look”, in Sebastian Edwards et. al. (eds.), The Decline of Latin American Economies, NBER/ University of Chicago, 2007
Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 56, No.3, pp.195-218, June 2006. (with Sandeep Kapur)
“Effective Exchange Rates and the Classical Gold Standard Adjustment”, American Economic Review, 95(4), pp. 1259-75, September 2005. (with Solomos Solomou)
“Fiscal Deficits and Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 529-54, April 2005. (with Marco Terrones)
“Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade”, Journal of Applied Economics, May 2002, pp.19-57 (with Elisabetta Falcetti)
“Mexico and Export-Led Growth: the Porfirian Era Revisited”, C.J.E,, vol.22, no.1, January 1998, pp.59-78
“Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: Identifying the Shocks", National Institute Economic Review, July 1996 (with R.Ramaswamy)
The Failure of Export–Led Growth in Brazil and Mexico, Institute of Latin American Studies Monograph series, University of London, 1993
“A New Wholesale Price Index for Brazil during the Period 1870-1913”, Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol. 46(4), Oct.-Dec. 1992, pp.519-33
“Do Tratado de Probabilidade a Teoria Geral: O Conceito de Racionalidade em Keynes”, Revista de Economia Política, Vol. 12, No.1, Jan/Mar 1992, pp.60-75
Journal Articles
“Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles”, Journal of Development Economics, 95, pp. 212-228, 2011 (with Marco Aiolfi and Allan Timmemann)
“The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach”, in Céspedes, L. et al. (eds.), Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence, Central Bank of Chile, March 2011 (with Adrian Pagan)
“Persistent Gaps and Default Traps”, Journal of Development Economics 89, pp.271-284 (with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur), 2009
Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 56, No.3, pp.195-218, June 2006. (with Sandeep Kapur)
“Effective Exchange Rates and the Classical Gold Standard Adjustment”, American Economic Review, 95(4), pp. 1259-75, September 2005. (with Solomos Solomou)
“Fiscal Deficits and Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 529-54, April 2005. (with Marco Terrones)
“Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade”, Journal of Applied Economics, May 2002, pp.19-57 (with Elisabetta Falcetti)
“Mexico and Export-Led Growth: the Porfirian Era Revisited”, C.J.E,, vol.22, no.1, January 1998, pp.59-78
“Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: Identifying the Shocks", National Institute Economic Review, July 1996 (with R.Ramaswamy)
“A New Wholesale Price Index for Brazil during the Period 1870-1913”, Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol. 46(4), Oct.-Dec. 1992, pp.519-33
“Do Tratado de Probabilidade a Teoria Geral: O Conceito de Racionalidade em Keynes”, Revista de Economia Política, Vol. 12, No.1, Jan/Mar 1992, pp.60-75
Media Publications
“O Alimento e a Guerra Cambial”, Valor Econômico, 7 June 2011
“Alimentos e a Política Econômica”, Valor Econômico, 10 February 2011
“Global Food Prices and Inflation Targeting”, VOX-EU, 27 January 2011 (with Roberto Chang)
“Will Food Prices Kill the Recovery?”, Time/CNN, 20 January 2011
“Informalidade no Brasil”, Exame, July 28th, 2010
“A Retomada do Crédito”, Estado de São Paulo, p.8, 21 April 2010
“Um Bonus da Estabilidade: O Crédito e o Emprego Formal”, Valor Econômico, p.16, October 2008
The International Herald Tribune, April 9th, 2001 (article by James K. Glassman on paper “The New Economy and Global Stock Returns”)
The Economist, March 24th, 2001 (section “Economic Focus” on the same paper)
Down Jones International News,, April 18th, 2003 (article by John Connor on the paper “Fiscal Deficits and Inflation”)
Valor Econômico, June 8th, 2006 (article by Maria Clara do Prado on the paper “Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look”)
Other IMF Publications
“Backcasting Latin America”, Finance and Development, December 2007, pp.39-43.
“Why Real Exchange Rates”, Finance and Development, September 2007, pp.46-47
Other Papers, Books, Comments
“Comments on ‘A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity Exporters in Latin America’ by Jeffrey Frankel”, Economía, 12(1), Fall 2011.
The Aftermath of the Crisis. Policy Lessons and Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, Inter-American Development Bank, March 2010
All That Glitters May Not be Gold: Assessing Latin America’s Recent Economic Performance, Inter-American Development Bank, April 2009