Raphael Espinoza is an Economist in the Research Department (Systemic Issues Division) at the IMF and an external research associate at the University of Oxford. He has written on international macroeconomics, financial stability and asset pricing. He was previously an Assistant Professor in Economics at University College London (UCL), where he was the Director of the Centre for Studies of Emerging Economies. At the IMF he also worked on Spain during the euro area crisis, on the Dominican Republic under its 2009-10 IMF program, and on Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. Before joining the IMF, he was an Economist at the ECB, focusing on the US economy. He has also been a financial stability expert for the central bank of Peru and for the central bank of Colombia, and a consultant for the World Bank Research Department, the French Treasury and the OECD.
Fluent In: French, Spanish.
PhD in Economics, University of Oxford, 2009
Visiting PhD student, Yale University, 2007
MSc. in Economics for Development, University of Oxford, 2004
Ingenieur des Ponts et Chaussees (MSc. in Applied Mathematics), 2004
Director, Centre for Comparative Studies of Emerging Economies, UCL, 2015-2016
Assistant Professor in Economics, University College London (UCL), 2014-2016
Economist, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, Strategy Unit for Low Income Countries, IMF, 2010-2011
Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, Gulf Cooperation Council Division, IMF, 2008-2010
Economist, International Environment Division, European Central Bank, 2007-2008
IMF Books and Working Papers:
How Do Fiscal and Labor Policies in France Affect Inequality?, Working Paper No. 16/41, February 29, 2016
Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area, Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22, November 17, 2015
When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?, Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/10, June 02, 2015
Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach for France, Working Paper No. 14/114, July 01, 2014
The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf, November 21, 2013
Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium, Working Paper No. 13/85, April 03, 2013
Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil, Working Paper No. 12/294, December 17, 2012
As You sow so Shall You Reap : Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo, Working Paper No. 12/127, May 01, 2012
Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries, Working Paper No. 12/132, May 01, 2012
Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets, Working Paper No. 12/49, February 01, 2012
Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy, Working Paper No. 11/75, April 01, 2011
How Strong Are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC? An Empirical Investigation, Working Paper No. 11/61, March 01, 2011
Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects, Working Paper No. 10/224, October 01, 2010
Recent Credit Stagnation in the MENA Region: What to Expect? What Can Be Done?, Working Paper No. 10/219, September 01, 2010
Regional Financial Integration in the GCC, Working Paper No. 10/90, April 01, 2010
Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus - A Smooth Transition Model, Working Paper No. 10/76, March 01, 2010
The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area, Working Paper No. 09/241, November 01, 2009
Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence from Financial and Macroeconomic Data, Working Paper No. 09/139, July 01, 2009
The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf, with G. Fayad and A. Prasad, Oxford University Press, 2013
Publications in Journals (Refereed)
Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium," with D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, 2015
Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets, with E. Dabla-Norris and S. Jahan, Applied Economics, 2015
Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Pil, with N. Aleksandrov and L. Gyurko, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013
When Should We Worry About Inflation?, with H. Leon and A. Prasad, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 26(1), pp. 100-127.
State Prices, Liquidity and Default, with C. Goodhart and D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, Vol. 39, No.2, pp 177-194, 2009.
The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity, with F. Fornari and M. Lombardi, Journal of Forecasting, 2011.
Further Fallout from the Global Financial Crisis - Credit Crunch in the 'Periphery', with A. Barajas, R. Chami and H. Hesse, World Economics, Vol.12(2), 2011.
Regional Financial Integration in the GCC, with A. Prasad and O. Williams, Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 12(4), 2011.
Automatic Stabilizers in France (in French, Les Stabilisateurs Automatiques en France), Économie et Prévision, No. 177, 2007.
Evaluating the Success of Malaysia's Exchange Controls (1998-99), with A. Abbas, Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 34(2), 2006.
Other Published Materials
Optimal Oil Extraction as a Multiple Real Option, 2011, with N. Aleksandrov, OxCarre Research Paper 64, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
Government Spending, Subsidies and Economic Efficiency in the GCC, OxCarre Research Paper 95, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
Factor Accumulation and the Determinants of TFP in the GCC, OxCarre Research Paper 94, University of Oxford, Department of Economics