For more information, see The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF

Ethiopia—Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility
Medium-Term Economic and Financial Policy Framework Paper, 1998/99-2000/01

Tables

Table 1. Ethiopia: Policy Matrix 1998/99–2000/01

Policy Area

Objectives and Targets

Strategies and Measures

Implementation

TA

I. Macroeconomic Policies

A. Fiscal policy and public sector reform

Support macroeconomic stability and minimize government crowding out of the private sector.

Improve the domestic primary balance and preclude any increase in net credit to the government from the banking system.

Continuous

 1. Tax policy  and  administration

Broaden the tax base, increase the revenue-to-GDP ratio, improve equity, and enhance efficiency.

Conduct a study on the fiscal effect of tariff reform, with a view to identifying offsetting sources of domestic revenue, including the possibility of (i) introducing a withholding tax on imports and on interest income; (ii) reducing the number of exemptions on sales taxes and customs duties; (iii) increasing the excise tax on beer and spirits, and tobacco and petroleum products.

July 1998

IMF

Introduce the agricultural income tax reforms and expand the coverage of agricultural land taxes.

July 1998

Introduce new tax measures with the implementation of tariff reform.

December 1998

Initiate preparatory work on a value-added tax (VAT).

December 1998

IMF

Introduce a VAT.

June 2001

Strengthen tax administration.

Complete the institutional reform of the Federal Inland Revenue Authority (FIRA) and Customs Office.

1998/99

IMF

Make operational the ASYCUDA system at the main customs border stations.

1998/99

Assign penalties and interest charges on late tax payments.

1998/99

Study the creation of a specialized tax court or tax tribunal to resolve tax collection problems.

1998/99

Establish and computerize a registration system for all taxpayers with tax identification numbers.

1998/99-2000/01

Expand the tax fraud unit at the FIRA.

June 1999

 2. Government  expenditure

Improve public resource management through a more efficient intersectoral and intrasectoral allocation of expenditures.

Provide adequate budgetary support for recurrent costs arising from the implementation of the sectoral investment programs (SIPs).

1998/99-2000/01

Raise capital expenditure as a share of GDP in line with the three-year rolling public investment program.

1998/99-2000/01

Improve fiscal transparency.

Utilize an open tendering process for large public sector contracts.

Continuous

Ensure that timely and comprehensive final accounts of federal government operations are completed nine months after the close of the previous fiscal year. The process of auditing the accounts also will be accelerated.

1998/99-2000/01

3. Nonfinancial  public  enterprises

Improve the financial strength and management of all public enterprises.

Require that all large public enterprises submit audited accounts on an annual basis.

Continuous

B. Monetary and exchange rate policies

 1. Monetary  policy

Ensure monetary growth is consistent with inflation objective and net international reserves.

Make operational an interbank money market.

Convert part of the government’s overdraft with the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) into treasury bills, as necessary.

September 1998

Continuous

IMF

Introduce securities to be issued by the NBE, as necessary.

Continuous

IMF

 2. Exchange  rate policy

Maintain a flexible exchange rate.

Operationalize an interbank market for foreign exchange, with a view to eventually phasing out the weekly auction of foreign exchange by the NBE.

September 1998

IMF

C. Financial sector reform

 1. Financial  sector reform

Promote financial intermediation and improve resource allocation through the banking system.

Reduce the minimum denomination of treasury bills offered for sale to Br 5,000.

Establish a bond market for private and public sector investment projects to facilitate the long-term placement of funds held by public institutions, such as the Pension Fund.

August 1998

June 1999

Increase the level of competitiveness and scope of services in the financial system.

Allow foreign exchange bureaus to engage in all approved spot/cash external current account transactions.

September 1998

Initiate privatization of Construction and Business Bank (CBB).

September 1998

World Bank

Bring CBB to point of sale.

December 1999

World Bank

 2. Bank  supervision

Improve the viability and stability of the financial system.

Strengthen the capacity of the NBE’s Banking Supervision Department to enforce prudential guidelines and regulations at all financial institutions, including restructuring operations and developing curriculum of the Ethiopian Institute for Banking and Insurance.

Continuous

IMF, World Bank, and Economic Development Institute

Ensure the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) undertakes adequate provisioning of all nonperforming loans and writes off all assets deemed worthless.

Continuous

Enforce stricter requirements on capital and reserves at the CBE by ensuring that they are no less than 9 percent of total risk-weighted assets and 7 percent of total assets.

August 1999

Develop an information system among all financial institutions on creditworthiness of individual borrowers.

1998/99

Intensify the collections of nonperforming loans at the CBE by further reducing their stock from 24.0 percent of total loans at end-February 1998 to 15.4 percent of total loans by end-June 1999.

September 1998-June 1999

Issue invitations to independent and internationally reputable firms to conduct a comprehensive financial and managerial audit of the CBE, with a view to improving the operations of the bank, and select a firm to conduct the audit of the CBE.

December 1998

World Bank

Complete the external audit of the CBE at the earliest feasible date—in consultation with the World Bank—with the intention of finishing the audit by June 1999; and formulate a comprehensive plan to improve the operations of the CBE based on the recommendations of the final report of the external auditor within three months of completion of the report.

June 1999

Commence negotiations of a management contract or twinning management of the CBE with a foreign firm.

June 1999 (or within two months of completion of the external audit)

Implement the plan to improve the operations of the CBE.

1999/2000

Initiate actuarial study needed to move Pension Fund for civil servants and public sector employees to independent, fully funded system.

December 1998

D. External sector policies

 1. Exchange  rate system

Eliminate remaining restrictions on external current account transactions.

In accordance with paragraphs 32 and 33 in the policy framework paper, (i) eliminate the foreign exchange surrender requirement, (ii) eliminate the unremunerated bid bond requirement imposed at the time of purchase of foreign exchange at auction, and (iii) transfer the responsibility for determining compliance of buyers and sellers of foreign exchange with import and export licensing requirements and foreign exchange regulations from the NBE to the commercial banks, subject to the policy measures shown below in Section II (B).

August 1998

Remove all restrictions on external current account transactions pertaining to business travel, education, and health, and increase the limit on holiday travel to US$1,200 per person per trip.

September 1998

Remove remaining limits on holiday travel.

June 1999

Allow the purchase of foreign exchange by foreigners residing in Ethiopia for remittances, with only ex-post verification.

September 1998

 2. Trade  policy

Further liberalize the trade system.

Reduce the maximum tariff rate to 40 percent and the number of tariff bands to seven, so that the average tariff rate drops from 21.5 percent in 1997/98 to 19.5 percent in 1998/99.

December 1998

Further reduce the maximum tariff rate to 30 percent and the number of tariff bands to six, so that the average tariff rate drops to 17.5 percent by 2000/01.

1999/2000-2000/01

 3. External  debt  management

Strengthen external debt management.

Reconcile data on external debt outstanding and debt-service profiles as calculated in the debt sustainability analysis with all creditors.

September 1998

Strengthen the capacity to monitor and manage foreign aid and debt disbursements.

Continuous

II. Structural and Institutional Policies

A. Reform program

Increase awareness and public support for reform program.

Announce and publicize package of reforms enunciating objectives and measures, including emphasis on rural development, exports, private sector development, and privatization, as well as on continuing to alter bureaucratic attitudes to promote the private sector.

September 1998

B. Export development

Reform export price verification.

Eliminate price verification of all nonagricultural commodity exports.

September 1998

Eliminate price verification for those agricultural exports for which verifiable international prices are not readily available, except coffee, and for others replace ex ante price verification with ex post audits.

December 1998

For coffee, replace NBE ex ante price verification of single point price with verification of a restricted range of allowable prices for each variety, based on New York prices.

June 1999

Further strengthen private sector consultations on exports.

Strengthen Export Promotion Council, including by establishing a more frequent schedule of meetings.

September 1998

Improve export finance.

Eliminate restrictions on exporting firms importing inputs from collaborating foreign partners without paying foreign exchange.

September 1998

Allow foreign suppliers’/partners’ credit for firms collaborating with foreign firms.

September 1998

Allow all banks to open usance import letters of credit for exporters with confirmed letters.

September 1998

Further revise the directive for foreign loans to (i) allow all manufacturing exporters, including agro-processors, to obtain foreign commercial borrowing; (ii) allow supplier’s credit and other implicit forms of foreign credit not involving formal loan agreements, including those involving franco valuta imports; and (iii) ease debt/equity constraints for exporters.

December 1998

Provide quick access to land for exporters.

Make available underutilized land on the Nefas silk estate and at least ten sites with electric power for immediate occupancy by export firms.

December 1998

Assure speedy access to free trade status for all direct and indirect exporters.

Submit to parliament bills to eliminate price and quality preferences for domestic input suppliers.

December 1998

Further reform duty drawback and exemption scheme, aiming at establishing a transparent, automatic, and computerized administrative mechanism with pretabulated input-output coefficients.

June 1999

World Bank

Prepare a program to implement other measures for free trade status for exporters such as a scheme for bonded manufacturing warehouses.

June 1999

World Bank

Implement above.

September 1999-June 2000

Further encourage foreign collaboration.

Simplify procedures for collaboration with foreign firms not limited to equity investment.

June 1999

Extend all EIA services currently provided to equity investors to all forms of foreign collaboration.

June 1999

Strengthen other export promotion activities.

Ensure that clearance from the Bureau of Standards for exports will take no more than three days, after which it will be automatically deemed to have been granted.

September 1998

Ensure that customs clearance for exports will take no more than three days.

December 1998

C. Private sector development

Increase role of private sector in infrastructure provision.

Hold high-level workshop to discuss power sector strategy in light of recent study tours.

October 1998

World Bank

Establish guidelines to operationalize decision to sell minority stake in ETC.

April 1999

World Bank

Establish guidelines to operationalize decision to allow foreign participation in the power sector.

April 1999

World Bank

Increase foreign direct investment in the economy.

Remove the minimum capital investment limit (less than US$20 million) applying to foreign investment in joint ventures and the upper limit (greater than US$20 million) applying to sole ventures in the engineering, metallurgical, pharmaceutical, chemical, and fertilizer industries.

April 1999

Improve regulatory environment.

Make operational foreclosure law.

September 1998

Complete comprehensive study with TA on regulatory constraints to private sector.

June 1999

World Bank

Identify measures to address issues arising from the study, in particular by classifying regulations as (i) those to be removed; (ii) those to be modified; and (iii) those to be retained.

September 1999

Ease regulatory constraints.

September 1998-June 2001

Strengthen private sector consultation.

Establish a broad-based forum for regular consultations between the private sector and government, along the lines of the Export Promotion Council.

March 1999

D. Privatization

Implement government decision to privatize selected enterprises as soon as possible.

Accelerate a Privatization Action Plan for 1998-2001, based on just-completed study financed by the World Bank, which would address the modalities of privatization (including state farms) and finalize the current tentative schedule of privatization.

February 1999

Formulate amendments to privatization-related laws to be submitted under omnibus legislation to parliament.

December 1998

GTZ (Germany)/World Bank

Bring ten state farms and two large enterprises (brewery and cement factory) to point of sale.

December 1998

Bring at least 80 enterprises to point of sale.

June 2001

E. Agricultural and rural development

Increase agricultural yield, especially by increasing fertilizer use.

Examine additional actions to reduce variability of harvest prices and other risks, to offset recent decline in farmer’s benefit-cost ratio for fertilizer.

April 1999

World Bank

Follow recent deregulation of fertilizer prices by examining measures that may be needed for improving the functioning of the fertilizer market.

June 1999

World Bank

Formulate measures for expanding role of nonofficial credit delivery systems for fertilizer purchase.

June 1999

World Bank

Improve incentives for peasants to invest in land improvement and rural capital construction.

Complete study and action plan on institutional capacity to implement land improvement and rural investment in the regions.

June 1999

Reform procedures for leasing agricultural land, such as those pertaining to duration, marketability of lease, and environmental protection.

December 1999

Implement other measures to improve land rights, such as extending to other regions the decision of the Oromiya region to increase the allowable lease period to 15 years.

December 1999

Promote broad-based rural nonfarm employment and production activities.

Facilitate development of microfinancing institutions for provision of credit and related services for nonfarm purposes.

June 1999

Implement pilot project through NGOs to organize rural handicrafts for exports through provision of credit, marketing design, and other necessary inputs.

December 1999

Improve rural access to infrastructure and social services.

With implementation of the multidonor supported Road Sector Development Program, aim to reduce proportion of farms more than half a day’s walk from nearest all-weather road from 75 percent to 50 percent over five years and 25 percent over 10 years.

Ongoing

Further develop and begin implementing plan for cost-effective, small-scale irrigation schemes, paying careful attention to their environmental impact.

Ongoing

Reflect emphasis on increased rural coverage of education and health in the design of the respective sector programs in implementation.

1998-2000

F. Capacity building, governance, and civil service reform

Strengthen expenditure management and financial accountability.

Issue directives on procurement, financial management, debt management, public properties, financial responsibilities, and fees and charges to reflect new federal structure.

December 1998

Provide training on revised financial and legal framework to relevant officials, including those from the regions.

June 1999

Prepare manuals to improve budget controls and management and hold workshops to increase awareness.

December 1998

Complete internal audit manual and begin training of trainers that will facilitate international audit standards in all levels of government institutions.

June 1999

Complete review of Coopers & Lybrand report on developing accounting and auditing profession in the country and submit recommendations.

December 1998

Improve human resource management.

Complete ongoing pilot programs on reforms in human resource management in the four federal and two regional institutions.

June 1999

Complete draft of civil service law and procedures that reflects new human resource management system.

June 1999

Upgrade service delivery.

Complete draft of National Policy on Service Delivery, including objectives, principles, and responsibilities.

June 1999

Establish institutional mechanism for handling complaints on services provided by civil service.

June 1999

Complete evaluation of ongoing pilot programs for improving service delivery in Customs, Ethiopian Investment Authority, Social Security Administration, Addis Ababa Road Transport Bureau, and Immigration Department.

June 1999

G. Project implementation

Improve performance.

Conduct jointly with World Bank a portfolio performance review to identify ways to ease project implementation bottlenecks and establish disbursement targets.

March 1999

Submit first report on project implementation to the Prime Minister and the President of the World Bank, based on portfolio performance review.

March 1999

Hold quarterly meetings of Project Manager’s Club to review and monitor portfolio performance.

Ongoing

Continue development and use of procurement tracking system.

Ongoing

III. Poverty Alleviation and Social Sectors

A. Health and education

Implement SIPs.

Review annually progress and reach agreement on next steps with donors on implementation of the SIPs.

1998/99-2000/01

Agree annually on budgetary expenditures on education and health during SIP reviews, with a view to increase allocations subject to fiscal sustainability.

1998/99-2000/01

Achieve health sector targets.

Improve by 2002 primary health coverage from 40 percent to 55 percent, contraceptive use from 9.8 percent to 20 percent, and immunization coverage from 67 percent to 80 percent.

Ongoing

Achieve education sector targets.

By 2002, raise primary enrollment ratio from 30 percent to 50 percent, reduce the student-to-book ratio from 5:1 to 1:1 in core subjects, and facilitate private sector and community financing of education, as envisaged in the Education Sector Development Program.

Ongoing

B. Poverty monitoring and targeting

Improve poverty monitoring capacity.

Produce poverty profile for Ethiopia, based on HICES/WMS 1995/6.

December 1998

Complete, analyze, and disseminate data from second household budget survey.

June 2001

Reduce food insecurity.

Develop an action plan on food insecurity.

December 1998

Implement the food security plan.

1999-2001

IV. Statistical Policies

A. Economic data

Improve quality of statistical data to strengthen the capacity to monitor social, economic, and financial developments.

Progressively reduce the reporting lag in the new national consumer price index, which is presently four months.

Continuous

Improve the coverage, valuation, timing, and classification of transactions in the balance of payments, inter alia, by increasing the use of survey data.

1998/99

Implement fully the recommendations of the Fund’s Statistics Department on money and banking statistics.

September 1998

Establish a committee at the Ministry of Finance and NBE to reconcile monthly data on domestic and foreign financing of the government’s budget deficit, as indicated in the fiscal and monetary accounts.

September 1998

 
 
Table 2. Ethiopia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1994/95-2000/20011

1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01
     


      Program
EBS /96/154
Estimated Projected
SM /97/267
Estimated Program
  (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified)
National income and prices                  
  GDP at constant prices (at factor cost) 6.2 10.6 6.0 5.6 2.8 0.5 8.0-9.4 6.7 7.0
  GDP deflator (at factor cost) 12.7 0.9 2.4 2.1 4.8 4.7 2.3 2.5 2.9
  Consumer prices (period average)2 13.4 0.9 1.2 -6.4 5.0 2.5 3.9 3.7 3.4
                   
External sector                  
  Exports, f.o.b. (in millions of U.S. dollars) 454 410 458 604 518 610 576 595 636
    Coffee 288 273 230 355 360 410 358 335 332
    Noncoffee 166 137 228 249 159 199 218 260 304
  Imports, c.i.f. (in millions of U.S. dollars) 1,063 1,413 1,474 1,403 1,483 1,430 1,484 1,565 1,646
  Export volume (noncoffee)3 -9.2 -16.6 ... 109.5 -8.6 -11.0 21.8 11.4 13.3
  Import volume 8.6 26.8 10.0 1.8 8.8 8.5 5.4 3.7 4.1
  Terms of trade (deterioration - ) 32.0 -18.5 -12.4 1.5 -0.9 18.5 -11.4 -7.1 -2.8
  Nominal effective exchange rate (end of period) -7.9 3.7 ... 0.2 ... 1.0 ... ... ...
                   
Money and credit                  
  Net foreign assets4 17.8 1.3 0.0 -3.9 0.8 0.8 2.3 2.4 4.3
  Net domestic assets4 6.5 7.2 9.1 7.3 8.2 11.2 8.7 6.9 6.0
    Net claims on the government -3.2 -1.3 -2.9 -5.1 -0.3 3.5 -1.0 -0.3 -1.0
    Credit to the nongovernment sector 17.7 16.0 12.0 5.6 8.5 6.7 10.4 8.1 8.1
  Broad money 24.3 8.5 9.1 3.4 9.0 12.1 11.0 9.2 10.3
  Velocity (GDP/broad money) 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
  Interest rates (one-year maturity; in percent)                  
    Savings deposits (minimum) 10.0 11.0 ... 7.0 ... 6.0 ... ... ...
    Lending rates (maximum) 15.0 16.0 ... 10.5 ... ... ... ... ...
                   
  (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified)
Financial balances                  
  Gross domestic saving 7.4 4.7 6.2 8.7 6.3 7.2 9.1 9.3 10.2
    Government saving 5.6 6.6 5.7 7.8 8.1 4.5 6.4 6.4 6.3
    Private saving 1.8 -1.9 0.6 0.8 -1.8 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.9
  Gross domestic investment 16.4 19.1 20.9 19.1 20.0 18.2 21.0 21.6 22.6
    Government investment 7.5 7.5 7.1 8.3 8.6 7.4 9.2 9.9 10.5
    Private investment 9.0 11.6 13.8 10.8 11.4 10.8 11.8 11.8 12.0
  Resource gap -9.0 -14.4 -14.7 -10.4 -13.7 -11.0 -11.9 -12.3 -12.3
  External current account balance, including official transfers 3.5 -3.4 -4.4 -3.5 -4.7 -3.7 -4.3 -4.5 -4.0
    Saving-investment (government) 5.3 4.8 6.2 2.4 7.2 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.9
    Saving-investment (private) -1.8 -8.2 -10.6 -5.9 -11.9 -4.2 -4.5 -3.9 -3.1
  External current account balance, excluding official transfers -4.4 -9.9 -10.5 -7.1 -10.7 -7.6 -8.2 -8.6 -8.4
                   
Government finances                  
  Revenue5 17.4 18.4 17.8 19.2 20.1 19.2 19.2 19.4 19.5
  Expenditure and net lending 24.8 27.0 25.5 24.3 27.0 26.4 25.1 26.2 26.7
    Current6 15.5 14.9 16.7 13.9 15.5 17.0 13.7 13.9 13.6
    Capital 9.3 9.4 8.8 10.4 11.5 9.2 11.5 12.3 13.1
    Net lending 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
  Overall fiscal balance, including grants (cash basis) -3.9 -5.6 -2.9 -1.3 -2.9 -3.5 -2.6 -3.2 -3.2
  Overall fiscal balance, excluding grants (cash basis) -7.3 -8.5 -9.0 -4.9 -6.9 -6.4 -5.9 -6.8 -7.2
  Total financing 3.9 5.6 2.9 1.3 2.9 3.5 2.6 3.2 3.2
    External financing 3.7 3.7 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.9 3.3 3.6
    Domestic financing (including residual) 0.2 2.0 0.7 -0.5 0.7 1.9 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4
  Stock of domestic debt 37.6 33.6 28.0 29.8 27.5 29.7 26.1 23.7 21.1
                   
External debt (including to Fund)7 80.3 71.6 73.5 64.4 74.0 157.0 144.6 144.1 142.5
Debt-service ratio7, 8 35.1 35.2 32.6 42.4 29.2 45.0 60.0 55.0 36.5
                   
  (In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise specified)
                   
Overall balance of payments 128 -36 -174 -272 -188 -368 -418 -379 -229
Gross official reserves 616 905 893 584 607 412 505 626 755
  (in months of imports of goods and nonfactor services) 5.8 6.6 6.2 4.2 4.1 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.7
Stock of external arrears9 691 558 0 649 5,177 4,897 0 0 0
GDP at current market prices (in millions of birr) 33,885 37,938 39,780 41,465 44,422 43,624 48,928 53,654 59,128
Exchange rate (Birr/US$, period average auction rate) 6.25 6.33 ... 6.50 ... 6.86 ... ... ...
                   

   Sources: Ethiopian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
   1Beginning in 1997/98, all data pertain to the period July 8-July 7; prior to that, fiscal and monetary data cover the period July 8-July 7, and other data July 1-June 30.
   2Addis Ababa retail price index until 1996/97 and national consumer price index thereafter.
   3In 1996/97, includes onetime export of gold stocks.
   4Changes expressed in percent of broad money at beginning of period.
   5Contains new fiscal measures for 1998/99 and beyond.
   6Includes change in arrears on external interest payments.
   7Before debt relief and including ruble-denominated debt and debt service to Russia beginning in 1997/98; evaluated at US$1 = SUR 0.6.
   8On a commitment basis; expressed in percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services.
   9All arrears and maturities due to Russia and non-Paris Club creditors between 1997 and 1999 are subject to restructuring in 1998/99. A stock-of-debt operation with all creditors is assumed at end-1999/2000 (on Naples terms with a 67 percent net present value reduction).
 
 
Table 3. Ethiopia: External Financing Requirements, 1997/98–2000/01
(In millions of U.S. dollars)

1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01
  Estimated
Program
Financing requirements        
         
  Total 518.3 6,354.0 1,198.1 1,041.4
         
    Current account deficit (excluding official transfers) 486.1 537.9 566.3 566.7
    Amortization 365.3 521.5 514.4 351.5
      IDA 17.7 21.9 25.8 28.5
      IMF repurchases 3.8 6.7 11.5 13.5
      Other 343.8 492.9 477.1 309.6
    Change in net reserves2 -29.0 92.9 117.4 123.1
    Reduction in arrears3 -304.1 5,201.7 0.0 0.0
         
Disbursements from existing commitments        
         
  Total 362.1 247.2 144.2 44.6
         
    Grants 250.2 100.0 50.0 0.0
    Medium- and long-term loans 111.9 147.2 94.2 44.6
      Bilateral creditors 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
      Multilateral creditors 106.8 147.2 94.2 44.6
        IDA 57.5 93.0 60.0 33.0
        African Development Bank (AfDB)/        
         African Development Fund (AfDF) 48.9 53.8 33.8 11.3
        Other 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
    Other capital, net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
         
Disbursements from new commitments        
         
  Total 117.6 387.1 545.6 630.9
         
    Grants 0.0 153.7 220.8 297.9
    Medium- and long-term loans 68.6 210.5 267.5 289.8
      Bilateral creditors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
      Multilateral creditors 68.6 210.5 267.5 289.8
        IDA 6.7 150.1 206.7 235.2
        AfDB/AfDF 61.9 60.4 60.8 54.6
        Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Other capital, net 49.0 22.9 57.3 43.3
         
Initial financing gap 38.7 5,719.8 508.4 365.8
         
  Debt relief (flow rescheduling in 1997/98) 38.7 5,679.7 448.2 154.3
    Arrears rescheduled 0.0 5,201.7 0.0 0.0
    Other debt relief 38.7 478.0 448.2 154.3
  IMF disbursements 0.0 40.1 60.2 0.0
         
Residual financing gap 0.0 0.0 0.0 211.5
         

   Sources: Ethiopian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
   1All data pertain to the period July 8-July 7.
   2Net of Fund disbursements under the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility and changes in commercial bank reserves.
   3Including ruble-denominated debt-service payments.
 
 
Table 4. Ethiopia: Key Indicators of External Indebtedness, 1997/98–2016/17

                        Average
  1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 1997/98- 2007/08-
Estimate
Projected
2006/07 2016/17

(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)

     
Total debt service before debt relief 464.3 604.9 619.3 455.9 291.5 282.5 273.6 268.6 265.8 266.7 268.2 379.3 431.4
                           
  Principal 355.1 517.1 506.8 342.3 182.9 176.9 170.0 166.1 161.9 158.5 154.6 273.8 276.0
                           
    Medium- and long-term payments on existing debt2 354.4 514.5 499.6 336.5 176.5 170.2 162.9 156.5 140.8 125.7 116.1 263.8 112.3
                           
      Multilateral 47.9 62.6 69.3 73.1 76.4 81.8 84.1 83.3 85.1 87.4 85.3 75.1 87.9
        Of which                          
        IMF 3.8 6.7 11.5 13.5 15.5 15.7 12.8 17.1 24.3 22.2 20.2 14.3 4.8
        World Bank 17.7 21.9 25.8 28.5 31.5 36.6 43.6 49.9 55.4 53.0 50.9 38.5 73.2
      Official bilateral 293.1 440.9 420.0 253.5 90.5 79.4 72.1 68.3 50.8 35.0 30.1 180.4 24.4
        Paris Club
        (excluding Russia)
35.6 36.6 40.1 42.8 38.5 33.6 32.1 30.8 29.2 28.9 26.6 34.8 23.8
        Russia 206.6 360.5 345.4 188.0 38.1 35.5 33.4 31.5 17.6 4.0 2.6 126.1 0.4
        Non-Paris Club 50.9 43.7 34.6 22.7 14.0 10.3 6.6 6.0 4.0 2.2 0.9 19.5 0.1
      Commercial 13.3 11.1 10.2 9.9 9.5 9.0 6.7 4.9 4.9 3.2 0.7 8.3 0.1
                           
    New debt 0.7 2.6 4.5 5.7 6.3 6.5 6.5 9.0 19.7 29.6 33.4 9.1 143.5
    Amortization of reschedules3 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.4 3.2 5.1 0.9 20.1
                           
  Interest 109.2 87.8 112.5 113.6 108.6 105.6 103.6 102.5 103.8 108.3 113.5 105.6 155.4
                           
      Medium- and long-term payments2 101.0 76.6 68.4 59.1 52.2 47.1 42.5 38.2 34.6 31.5 28.7 55.1 20.5
                           
        Multilateral 31.3 33.1 33.4 32.3 30.5 28.2 25.9 23.7 21.5 19.5 17.6 28.0 12.4
        Of which                          
          IMF 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.0
          World Bank 12.0 13.2 15.5 18.1 20.9 23.8 26.7 29.4 32.0 34.5 36.9 22.6 47.1
      Official bilateral 62.3 37.1 29.7 22.4 18.4 16.6 15.0 13.6 12.5 11.8 11.1 23.9 8.1
        Paris Club
        (excl. Russia)
15.9 17.2 18.6 17.0 14.9 14.1 13.4 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.0 14.8 8.1
        Russia 44.4 18.5 10.2 4.8 3.0 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 8.6 0.0
        Non-Paris Club 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0
      Commercial 7.4 6.4 5.3 4.3 3.3 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.2 0.0
                           
    New debt 0.1 0.8 2.0 4.4 7.2 9.2 11.9 15.0 20.0 27.6 36.0 9.8 90.1
    Moratorium interest3 8.1 10.3 42.1 50.2 49.3 49.3 49.2 49.2 49.2 49.1 48.9 40.6 44.8
                           
  Total debt service after debt relief4 110.8 163.4 177.2 184.0 187.4 191.6 191.7 191.9 207.2 224.1 230.6 182.9 401.7
                           
Memorandum item:  
                           
Debt-service before debt relief (excluding moratorium interest) 456.2 594.6 574.6 405.6 242.2 233.1 223.7 218.8 215.1 214.4 214.2 337.8 366.4
(in percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services)5 45.0 60.0 55.0 36.5 20.1 17.7 15.6 14.0 12.6 11.5 10.6 28.8 11.7
Total debt stock (net present value) after debt relief 8,025.0 3,016.5 2,624.4 2,777.2 2,917.7 3,056.4 3,210.1 3,389.1 3,615.5 3,867.5 4,157.8 3,649.9 5,753.1
(in percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services)6 855.3 299.4 258.1 264.8 260.3 252.3 243.4 235.6 230.4 225.9 223.2 312.6 208.0
Public sector debt service after restructuring 92.9 146.1 161.4 169.1 173.5 178.9 181.8 184.4 200.0 218.9 228.0 170.7 399.4
(in percent of government revenue) 8.3 12.4 12.2 11.5 10.7 9.9 9.1 8.4 8.2 8.1 7.6 9.9 8.4
GDP 6,358.0 6,563.7 6,561.0 6,725.2 7,072.2 7,684.3 8,374.9 9,130.0 9,951.2 10,892.7 11,811.9 7,931.3 17,471.4
Exports of goods and nonfactor services 1,014.8 990.8 1,044.8 1,111.0 1,207.1 1,315.5 1,434.0 1,565.5 1,707.8 1,863.5 2,016.1 1,325.5 3,057.9

   Sources: Ethiopian authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
   1All data pertain to the period July 8-July 7.
   2On a scheduled basis. After Paris Club rescheduling agreement in December 1992 (PC1), but before Paris Club agreement in January 1997 (PC2).
   3Includes debt service on the Paris Club flow rescheduling in January 1997 (PC2) ; a stock-of-debt operation is assumed in 1999/2000, with comparable rescheduling assumed on Russian and non-Paris Club claims.
   4Assumes the implementation of the Paris Club flow rescheduling in 1997 on Naples terms (67 percent net present value reduction) during period 1996/97-1998/99 (PC2), and a stock-of-debt operation at end-1999/2000. For Russia, an up-front discount of 80 percent and flow rescheduling comparable to PC2 are assumed in 1998/99, and stock-of-debt operation is assumed in 1999/2000. For non-Paris Club creditors, a flow rescheduling comparable to PC2 and a stock-of-debt operation at the end-1999/2000 are assumed.
   5Debt service in percent of current-year exports of goods and nonfactor services.
   6Three-year backward-looking average of exports of goods and nonfactor services.

 
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