For more information, see Guinea and the IMF

Guinea—Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility
Economic and Financial Policy Framework Paper, 1998–2000

Tables

Table 1. Guinea: Summary and Time Frame Implementation of Macroeconomic and Structural
Adjustment Measures, October 1998–September 2000
Issues Objectives and policies Strategies and measures Phasing and implementa-
tion
Technical assistance





I. Fiscal policy
a. Revenue Increase the share of nonmining revenue in GDP by broadening the tax base and strengthening tax administration. Improve tax administration by restructuring tax offices in Conakry and in the interior. 1998-99 IMF

Strengthen collection of the unified presumptive tax (TPU). 1998





Implement the newly adopted unified real estate tax 1998






Monitor tax compliance more efficiently by setting benchmarks and incentives for collection agents.








Improve the functioning of customs department through: 1998-2000 France


- redeployment of staff,



- training, and



- rehabilitiation of ASYCUDA system






b. Expenditure








1. Restructuring public expenditure toward priority sectors Increase fiscal resources allocated to the priority sectors. Develop a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) based on national and sectoral priorities and fiscal discipline.








Adopt the MTEF for the priority sectors (education, health, rural development, and roads). 1998


Extend the MTEF to other sectors. 1999-2000 WB


Ensure that Public Investment Program (PIP) is consistent with the MTEF (revised investment budget classification and computerized monitoring of execution). 1998 WB


Increase resource allocations to priority sectors.



Increase recurrent budget allocations to four priority sectors from 25% in 1997 to 35% in 2000. 1998-2000


Increase disbursement rates in the four priority sectors from less than 50% in 1997 to 90 % in 2000. 1998-2000

Implement results-oriented expenditure system. Develop system of ex-post evaluation of results


Develop performance indicators for each priority sector. 1998 WB

Design and adopt a system for ex-post evaluation of financial results. 1998 WB

Adopt strategic expenditure prioritization, and ensure fiscal discipline. Strengthen systems for macroeconomic forecasting:


Produce macroeconomic forecasts (revenue, expenditure, and sectoral allocations) and ensure consistency with the budget and IMF-supported program criteria. 1998-2000 WB


Design budget allocation system to take account of potentially low levels of revenue. 1998-2000 WB
2. Strengthening budget execution and monitoring Strengthen budgetary control framework. Strengthen regulatory framework governing budget execution:



Increase staffing in the budget and financial departments of the sectoral ministries. 1998 WB







Rigorously implement regulatory framework governing procurement contracts (publication of monthly data on government spending on bid requests by each sectoral ministry; rejection of all spending that exceeds code-prescribed threshold and is not contract-related). 1998-2000 WB







Reduce delays in signing bid contracts. 1998-2000 WB







Standardize documents used for bid submission. 1998-1999 WB







Strengthen monitoring of budget execution:








Supplement the computerized budget-monitoring system (by including Treasury operations). 1998 France







Produce monthly data on budget execution by each ministry. 1998 WB







Finalize the 1996 final budget accounting law [loi de règlement]. 1998 France







Produce the final budget accounting law for end-1997. 1998 France







Produce the final budget accounting laws six months after the close of the budget year, at the latest. 1999-2000

Standardize and simplify budgetary process. Improve and harmonize budgetary classification for current and capital expenditure. 1998 WB


Simplify budgetary procedures. 1998-2000 WB







Implement the plan to reorganize the National Treasury Directorate. 1998 France





II. Monetary policy and financial sector reform Stabilize inflation and protect reserves. Maintain tight domestic liquidity conditions through increasingly active use of open market operations and strict enforcement of minimum reserve requirements. 1998-2000 IMF







Respect quarterly ceilings on reserve money and quarterly targets for net foreign assets of the Central Bank. 1998-2000 IMF







Raise the interest rate on central bank credit to the government to the level of the Treasury bill rate. 1998 Budget






Facilitate microfinance operations. Make the Fonds d’Etude et d’Assistance operational. 1998 WB







Develop an appropriate regulatory and supervisory framework conducive to microfinance development. 1998-2000 WB







Develop a performance-based institutional capacity-building program for the three microcredit institutions (Crédit Mutuel/Crédit Rural/PRIDE) and transform them from donor-financed projects to autonomous institutions. 1998-2000 WB/France






Restore normal operating conditions in the banking system. Finalize the liquidation of the BIAG. May 1998





Implement plans for restructuring the UIBG, BIG, and BPMG. 1998 WB/IMF






Strengthen procedures for granting loans. Strengthen supervision by the BCRG and auditors. 1998-99 WB/IMF





Review and publish a directive for all the parties concerned (banks, BCRG, auditors, shareholders). 1998 WB/IMF

Strengthen supervision of financial institutions. Enforce prudential ratios (according to Basle Committee principles). 1998-2000 WB







Enforce new loan recovery procedures and improve arrangements for providing loan collateral. 1998-2000 WB







Implement the new chart of accounts for commercial banks. 1998-2000 WB







Ensure that all commercial banks are externally audited on an annual basis and that reports are reviewed by the Central Bank. 1998-2000 WB


Apply equal tax treatment to all banks 1998-2000 IMF
III. External sector








a. Exchange and trade system Improve flexibility and transparency in foreign exchange operations on the interbank market Limit central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market to smoothing short-term fluctuations. 1998-2000 IMF
   Encourage transactions in the interbank market. 1998 IMF
b. External debt management Regularize Guinea’s financial position with all its bilateral creditors. Finalize all bilateral agreements with Paris Club creditors, including Russia. 1998 IMF





IV. Structural reforms








a. Judicial reforms Increase transparency and efficiency of the judiciary and application of the rule of law. Adopt an action plan to improve the working conditions of members of the judiciary over the medium term. 1998-2000 WB/France


Increase transparency of judicial proceedings by systematic monitoring of cases in litigation by the media, and publication of court decisions. 1998-2000 France


Adopt an action plan to strengthen institutional capacity in the legal area by improving training for legal professionals and paralegals. 1998-2000 WB







Sensitize members of the executive branch on the limits of their powers and the need for them to refrain from interfering in judicial matters. 1998-2000


Adopt an action plan to strengthen the functioning of institutional mechanisms established to enforce the rules of conduct to be followed by members of the judiciary. 1998-2000





b. Public enterprise sector reform Reduce the size and economic burden of the public enterprise (PE) sector. Define a framework for public sector reform
  Comprehensive inventory of all public enterprises. 1998 WB


Define and implement a privatization plan for commercial and industrial public enterprises. 1998-2000 WB


Reduce direct and indirect subsidies to public enterprises. 1998-2000 IMF

Reinforce financial management of PE to minizie its budgetary cost. Update and reduce the stock of cross debts. 1998-2000 IMF





c. Administrative reform Create a service-oriented public administration. Initiate an institutional evaluation program to assess civil service capabilities and bottlenecks. 1998 WB






Build local institutional and technical capacities needed to improve the management of public finances and the delivery of public services. Conduct a survey of government services.

Develop and implement an action plan to: (i) improve efficiency, effectiveness and quality of service; (ii) create a "performance-based" environment; (iii) place effective human resources management at the center of the reform process; (iv) promote a client-oriented government; (v) introduce market-type mechanisms such as user fees and outsourcing; and (vi) improve regulatory quality.

1998-2000

 
1998-2000

WB

 
WB






V. Sectoral policies








a. Agriculture Implement a focused and integrated rural development strategy encompassing agriculture, infrastructure, management of natural resources and social services. Adopt a new agricultural development policy letter (LPDA 2) covering both livestock and natural resources management.

Implement the recommendations of the study on fertilizers.

1998  

 
 

1998

WB  

 
 

WB








Adopt an action plan to improve the competitiveness of agricultural exports. 1998-2000 WB







Undertake a detailed sector institutional assessment. 1998 WB







Adopt a plan for restructuring the Ministry of Agriculture. 1998 WB







Complete the restructuring the Ministry of Agriculture. 1999-00 WB






Strengthen decentralization mechanisms (budgetary, institutional, and regulatory) to empower rural development communities (CRD) to assume responsibility for economic and social infrastructures. Undertake a detailed examination of the legal and regulatory framework governing property ownership. 1998-99 WB





Adopt a new land policy empowering local governments to take decisions on soil use and launch pilot operations. 1999 WB





Examine the political, institutional, and regulatory framework for managing forestry resources. 1999







Finalize the mechanisms for maintaining the rural roads network. 1999 WB







Adopt a five-year roads maintenance program. 1999-2000 WB







Adopt a five year program for rural roads. 1999-2000 WB
b. Mining sector Strengthen the government’s role as facilitator/regulator and reduce its role as owner/operator. Continue implementing cost reduction plans for CBG, Friguia and SBK, including personnel reductions and relinquishment of certain services. 1998 WB







Decide on further restructuring and privatization SBK. 1998







Reduce government ownership of CBG and Friguia. 1998







Redefine status of ANAIM and institutional arrangements for reduced government participation in mining companies. 1998 WB







Enact implementation decrees to harmonize mining code provisions with other relevant legislation. 1998 Canada







Introduce private management into geological services (applied geology, drilling and laboratories). 1998





c. Roads Extend roads and improve their quality. Accelerate disbursements to pay for roads maintenance. 1998 WB






Ensure the continuity of roads maintenance resources. Carry out a study of the various types of road-user fees. 1998 WB


Create and adopt a new Roads Maintenance Fund based on the following: (i) legal and financial autonomy vis-à-vis the government; (ii) own resources based on the principle of user fees. 1998-2000 WB





d. Energy Ensure an increased, reliable, and environmentally sound supply of energy across the country. Increase private sector participation in energy production in the Conakry region and provincial centers. 1998-99 WB





Ensure that satisfactory progress is made in the negotiation on new concession agreement relating to the privatization of the electricity sector. 1998 WB





Enact enabling regulatory environment for private power generation in the energy production sector. 1998







Effective beginning of the village electrification pilot program. 1998 WB







Implement electrification program for interior cities. 1998 WB







Improve monitoring of safety, environment and quality aspects of petroleum product distribution. 1998-99 WB







Promote the use of LPG in the Conakry/Kindia area. 1998-99







Prepare a strategy for rural electrification and for sustainable management/use of woodfuel resources. 1998 WB






Improve financial situation and pursue reform of power sector. Adjust the level and structure of electricity tariffs. 1998 WB







Execute signed concession contracts to operate and develop power production systems. 1998 WB


Liquidate Enelgui and create a small entity for sector regulation. 1998 WB






Increase fiscal revenues. Eliminate fraudulent importation and distribution of petroleum products. 1998-99





e. Education Give increased priority to medium-term objectives of the education policy and access to the education system. Implement a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) for education. 1998-2000 WB

Increase enrollment and completion rates for basic education (primary and lower secondary). Commit and disburse adequate budgetary resources for basic education including, in particular: (a) additional recuritment of at least 1,600 primary school teachers and (b) $5 and $8 per student in educational materials, for primary and secondary students, respectively. 1998-2000


1998-2000 (materials)

WB/France







Develop and institutionalize decentralized recruitment and posting system for contract teachers. 1998-99 WB







Recruit at least 1,600 new teachers (staff and contractual) per year. 1999-2000 WB







Decentralize management of a certain percentage of nonwage operating budgets to regional education directorates. 1999 WB






Increase quality and efficiency of higher education. Restructure and streamline higher education to respond to changing employment priorities and tighter budgets. 1998-99







Maintain student enrollments in higher education between 8,500 and 9,000. 1998-2000







Reduce the cost of social transfers in the government budget by about 5% annually. 1998-2000
f. Health and population Improve quality and accessibility of health care. Strengthen quality and accessibility of basic health care by focusing on remote areas. 1998-2000 WB







Pursue decentralization and improve budget allocations for districts. 1998-2000 WB







Increase budget allocations for nonwage recurrent expenditure in the sector and improve budget execution. 1998-99 WB







Increase expenditure on primary health care services to at least 30% of total public sector expenditure. 1998-99






Reduce fertility rate to alleviate pressure on resources and services. Expand family planning activities and other cost-effective programs such as mother and child care, control of communicable diseases, particularly STDs/AIDS, and health and nutrition education. 1998-2000 WB







Take legislative measures to eliminate obstacles to the promotion and use of modern contraceptive methods to change behavior. 1998-99







Launch information, education, and communications campaigns to increase demand for modern contraceptive products and modify behaviors. 1998-2000 WB





VI. Social development Improve living conditions of the population. Promote community-based self-help projects (particularly in the areas of social and economic infrastructure). 1998-99







Improve food security. 1998-99







Continue to carry out the Human Development Initiative. 1998-99

Public policy on poverty reduction. Build consensus on policy choices through participatory process. 1998-99







Continue development of poverty monitoring system, including both qualitative and quantitative surveys. 1998-99





VII. Rural water & sanitation Provide basic water and sanitation services to communities. Ensure cost-effectiveness of these facilities through community management, private sector provision of goods and services, and public sector support. 1998-2000


Maximize health benefits by integrating water, sanitation and hygiene education interventions. 1998-2000
VIII. Urban development Provide basic urban services at the request of the population and develop municipal capabilities to program and finance urban services and amenities. Establish different levels of service and amenities according to popular request and ability to pay. 1998-2000 WB

Have users of services and amenities finance recurrent costs.
WB





Ensure management and execution of services and provision of amenities by the private sector.








Increase municipalities’ regulatory capacity.






IX. Economic statistics Improve economic information system Rehabilitate ASYCUDA with a view to producing up-to-date foreign trade statistics September 1998 France







Complete computerization of government expenditure chain from commitment to payment, and rehabilitate the treasury accounting system to produce reliable and consistent public finance statistics. 1998 France







Prepare preliminary national accounts for 1995-96. 1998 IMF







Coordinate preparation of balance of payments statistics between Ministry of Planning and the Central Bank. 1998















 
 

Table 2. Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1995-2000
  1995 1996
Est.
    1997
1998
Prog.
1999 2000
  Rev.
prog.
Est.

   Projections
 
       (Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)
Income
   GDP at constant prices 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.5 6.0
   GDP at current prices 9.8 8.5 9.5 8.0 9.8 9.4 9.4
   GDP deflator 5.2 3.8 4.5 3.9 4.4 3.8 3.3
Consumer prices
   Average 5.6 3.0 5.0 1.9 4.0 3.5 3.5
   End of period 5.2 2.1 5.0 5.2 3.5 3.5 3.5
 
External sector
   Exports, f.o.b. (in U.S. dollar terms) 19.4 -8.2 14.6 10.6 9.5 10.4 9.4
   Imports, c.i.f. (in U.S. dollar terms) 17.6 -10.7 9.2 6.9 7.7 9.6 7.7
   Terms of trade
      Index (1989=100) 75.1 73.2 74.2 72.3 73.0 71.8 70.5
      Percentage change -3.1 -2.4 0.4 -1.3 1.1 -1.6 -1.8
   Average effective exchange
          rates (depreciation -)
      Nominal index -4.6 2.3 ... 0.2 ... ... ...
      Real index -5.7 2.3 ... -0.6 ... ... ...
 
Central government finances
   Revenue and grants 18.9 -4.8 20.6 17.3 6.1 15.0 15.6
   Total expenditure 10.9 -0.9 17.8 14.6 12.1 12.1 10.9
 
Money and credit
   Net foreign assets1 -3.9 -7.0 16.2 20.4 11.6 ... ...
   Net domestic assets1 15.2 12.9 -10.8 -3.1 -2.6 ... ...
      Public sector (net)1 8.8 10.8 -11.7 -4.3 -8.3 ... ...
      Private sector 25.7 3.8 9.3 -0.5 10.1 ... ...
   Broad money 11.3 5.8 12.5 17.3 9.0 ... ...
   Reserve money 12.8 1.3 9.8 15.1 11.3 ... ...
   Interest rate2 13.0 9.0 ... 9.0 ... ... ...
   Velocity (GDP/average M2) 12.3 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.8 ... ...
 
     (In percent of GDP)
Central government finances
   Total revenue and grants 15.0 13.2 14.5 14.3 14.5 15.5 16.5
          Of which: nonmining revenue 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.2 8.7 9.3 9.9
   Current expenditure 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.4 8.4 8.4
   Capital expenditure 8.6 7.4 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.8 10.1
   Overall budget balance
       Including grants (commitment) -2.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.7 -2.0
       Excluding grants (commitment) -6.7 -6.1 -6.0 -6.0 -5.9 -5.7 -5.7
   Primary balance 1.9 1.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 4.0 4.3
 
Gross investment3 20.2 20.0 ... 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.0
   Private 14.4 14.9 ... 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.6
   Government 5.8 5.1 ... 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.4
Domestic savings3 15.3 15.3 ... 17.0 17.5 19.0 21.0
   Private 11.7 12.9 ... 13.7 13.7 14.5 16.0
   Government 3.6 2.4 ... 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.1
 
External current account balance
   Including official transfers -5.0 -4.6 -4.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.6 -3.1
   Excluding official transfers -9.1 -7.7 -7.4 -7.7 -7.7 -6.6 -6.1
External public debt4 87.8 82.6 77.9 80.0 67.6 65.0 63.2
 
      (In percent of export of goods and nonfactor services)
 
External debt service ratio5 18.7 17.9 17.6 16.5 16.6 16.1 16.0
External public debt 392.3 437.2 380.5 380.3 297.6 268.0 256.4
 
      (In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
 
Exports 747.5 695.8 797.1 769.8 843.0 930.4 1017.7
Imports 809.2 713.8 778.9 763.1 821.8 900.9 970.1
External current account
    (including off. transfers)
  -184.9   -182.9   -167.0   -171.5   -185.3   -145.3   -135.0
Overall balance of payments -51.8 -83.3 -12.0 4.7 -74.9 -40.1 -21.8
External arrears outstanding 577.3 663.1 0.0 687.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net foreign assets (central bank) 98.7 71.5 124.1 118.2 143.2 143.2 166.3
Gross official reserves
     (in months of imports of goods
    and nonfactor services)
2.9 2.4 ... 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4
Sources: Guinean authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1In percent of broad money stock at beginning of period.
2Minimum annual rate on bank savings deposits, at end of period.
3New national accounts estimates subject to further revisions.
4Including debt owed to the Fund and to the former Soviet Union.
5Scheduled debt service, including IMF charges and repurchases.
 

Table 3. Guinea: Social and Demographic Indicators

Area (square kilometers, 1995)

   Total 245,860
   Agricultural land 62,448

Population and vital statistics
   Total population (in millions, 1995) 6.6
   Rate of growth (percent, 1995) 2.6
   Density (per square kilometer, 1995) 27.0
   Urban population (percent of total, 1995) 29.6
   Population age structure (percent, 1995)
       0-14 47.0
      15-64 50.0
      65 and above 3.0
   Crude birth rate (per thousand, 1993) 50
   Crude death rate (per thousand, 1993) 20
   Infant mortality rate (per thousand, 1994) 128
   Life expectancy at birth (years, 1993) 45.0
   Total fertility rate (births per woman, 1994) 6.5

Health and nutrition
   Population per physician (1985) 38,961
   Population per hospital bed (1990) 1,816
   Per capita supply of
      Calories (per day, 1989) 1,730
      Proteins (grams per day, 1989) 37
   Access to safe water (percent, 1993) 60.0

Labor force
   Total (in millions, 1994) 3.1
      Male 1.6
      Female 1.5

Education
   Enrollment rate (percent)
      Primary (1997)
       Total 51
       Female 37
      Secondary (1994)
       Total 16
       Female 6
      Tertiary (1990) 1
   Pupil-teacher ratio (percent)
       Primary (1994) 50.0
       Secondary (1993) 30.0
   Adult illiteracy (percent)
      Total (1990) 76.0
      Female (1994) 78.1
 
Table 4: Guinea: External Financing Requirements, 1995-2000
(In millions of U.S. dollars)

  1995 1996
Est.
1997
Est.
1998   1999 2000
         Projections
               
Financing requirements -588.7 -298.5 -516.1 -1,129.7   -390.8 -385.8
               
Current account deficit,              
   excluding public transfers -332.4 -304.6 -300.7 -302.3   -266.7 -265.0
Public debt amortization -90.8 -77.2 -71.9 -82.0   -92.0 -97.8
IMF repayments -8.8 -8.4 -11.0 -9.4   -7.1 -8.3
Public short term 0.0 0.0 -34.5 -0.6   0.0 0.0
International reserves (increase-) -34.7 59.6 -47.0 -47.5   -24.9 -14.7
Change in arrears -116.5 32.2 -51.0 -687.8   0.0 0.0
Errors and omissions -5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0   0.0 0.0
               
Resources 588.7 298.3 516.0 336.0   342.1 341.0
             
Public transfers 147.6 122.0 129.2 116.9   121.2 130.0
   Project-related grants 120.1 117.9 120.8 116.9   121.2 130.0
   Program grants 27.5 2.0 8.4 0.0   0.0 0.0
      France 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0   0.0 0.0
      European Union (EU) 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.0   0.0 0.0
   Other (food aid) 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0   0.0 0.0
               
Public capital, long term 154.0 121.9 226.9 175.4   177.8 186.3
   Project-related loans 144.9 121.9 160.5 175.4   177.8 186.3
       Of which: World Bank 78.1 64.9 62.0 0.0   0.0 0.0
   Program financing 9.1 0.0 66.4 0.0   0.0 0.0
       World Bank (CASFI) 9.1 0.0 9.0 0.0   0.0 0.0
       IDA's third structural adjustment credit
         (SAC III)
0.0 0.0 45.0 0.0   0.0 0.0
       Kuwait 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0   0.0 0.0
       African Development Bank 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.0   0.0 0.0
             
Direct investment 64.1 40.2 43.4 20.0   19.7 24.7
Other private capital 11.3 14.3 12.3 -2.3   0.0 0.0
IMF disbursements 30.7 0.0 34.4 0.0   0.0 0.0
Kuwait 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0   0.0 0.0
Paris Club rescheduling 181.0 0.0 48.6 26.0   23.5 0.0
Other debt relief 0.0 0.0 17.9 0.0   0.0 0.0
Deferred payments 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0   0.0 0.0
             
Financing gap 0.0 0.0 0.0 793.6   48.6 44.8
   ESAF resources 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.0   32.0 0.0
   IDA's SAC III 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0   0.0 0.0
   Debt buyback (IDA, bilateral creditors) 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4   0.0 0.0
   EU grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0   11.4 0.0
   African Development Bank 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4   0.0 0.0
   Other loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.3   0.0 0.0
   Residual financing 0.0 0.0 0.0 672.5 1  5.2 44.8

Sources: Guinean authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1For 1998, it is expected to be filled by debt relief from Russia and non-Paris Club creditors on terms at least comparable to those of 1997 Paris Club agreement, and by a further debt buyback.

 

Table 5. Guinea: External Medium- and Long-Term Public Debt Outstanding
and Debt Service Due, 1995-2000
(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)

  1995 1996
Est.
1997
Prel.
1998 1999 2000

     Projections
               
Total medium- and long-term
    debt outstanding1,2 2,642.9 2,707.4 2,630.6 2,558.3 2,625.9 2,737.8  
               
Total medium- and long-term debt,              
       excluding IMF1,2 2,549.1 2,623.9 2,531.5 2,468.2 2,542.5 2,662.3  
      (of which: arrears) 199.3 279.6 241.7 0.0 0.0 0.0  
    Multilateral institutions 1,340.9 1,377.8 1,428.7 1,503.0 1,580.9 1,657.4  
      (of which: arrears) 6.3 10.7 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0  
    Paris Club creditors2 836.4 827.6 684.2 715.4 746.6 755.8  
      (of which: arrears) 7.4 41.6 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
    Other official creditors 308.8 321.8 305.7 242.5 212.3 248.8  
      (of which: arrears) 135.8 141.6 133.7 0.0 0.0 0.0  
    Commercial banks and suppliers 63.0 96.8 113.1 7.4 2.7 0.3  
      (of which: arrears) 49.8 85.7 100.5 0.0 0.0 0.0  
               
    Outstanding IMF credit3 93.8 83.5 99.0 90.1 83.4 75.5  
               
Debt service due before              
       debt rescheduling2 148.9 133.6 129.1 144.2 145.0 151.1  
    Paris Club, post-cutoff-date debt 8.7 9.7 11.4 13.0 16.8 20.3  
    Paris Club, 1986 and PRNC 43.4 18.3 9.5 8.7 7.3 5.8  
    Paris Club, 1989 7.6 9.8 14.4 17.4 16.2 15.3  
    Paris Club, 1992 10.9 10.0 8.1 10.0 6.7 6.9  
    Paris Club, 1995 2.3 7.8 7.4 5.9 5.8 5.9  
    Paris Club, 1997 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.6 3.7  
    Paris Club deferred debt 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.3 0.0 0.0  
    International organizations            
       (including IMF) 47.5 47.9 50.4 53.2 52.7 59.7  
    Organizations of Arab countries 6.1 5.4 6.2 8.2 8.6 9.0  
    Banks and suppliers 13.0 15.5 6.7 6.3 6.0 3.0  
    Non-Paris Club bilaterals 9.6 9.3 10.7 12.0 16.1 12.5  
    Other rescheduling 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
    New public investment program drawings 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 5.3 8.9  
    Telecommunications debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
Private debt 60.2 80.7 80.0 81.0 71.8 64.5  
             
    Interest 77.1 84.9 85.5 87.4 87.3 84.6  
    Principal 132.0 129.4 140.7 146.5 130.6 129.6  
               
Debt rescheduling4 43.7 0.0 23.9 26.0 23.5 0.0  
    Interest 4.5 ... ... .... ...  
    Principal 39.1 ... ... ... ...  
Debt service due after debt            
    rescheduling1,2 105.2 133.6 105.2 118.2 121.5 151.1  
               
Memorandum items:              
               
    Debt outstanding vis-à-vis
       Russia1,5 487.3 488.4 489.5 95.0 86.7 78.4  
 
    Total debt outstanding,              
       including debt to Russia1,5 3,130.2 3,195.8 3,120.1 2,653.3 2,712.6 2,816.2  
 
    Debt-GDP ratio (in percent)1          
       Excluding debt to Russia 71.1 68.9 67.4 65.2 65.0 63.2  
       Including debt to Russia5 84.2 81.4 80.0 67.6 67.1 65.0  
 
    Debt-service ratio6 18.7 17.9 16.5 16.6 16.1 16.0  

Sources: Guinean authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1End of period.
2Excluding debt to Russia.
3Excluding expected new disbursements under current ESAF.
4Only agreed rescheduling of current debt-service payments due is shown.
5The data assumptions are based on September 1997 agreement on Russia's participation as a creditor in the Paris Club, with an additional assumption, reflecting the Guinean position, that the upfront discount applies to the totality of Russion debt. A hypothetical rescheduling scenario based on these assumptions is contained in Appendix IV of the March 1998 staff report. The Russian authorities have indicated that US$34 million of their claims would not appear eligible for the discount. These amounts may need to be revised in the light of the bilateral negotiations scheduled to commence in April 1998.
6Scheduled debt service, before rescheduling, on public debt, in percent of total export earnings (goods and nonfactor services), includes Russia.
 

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