For more information, see Rwanda and the IMF

Rwanda--Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility
Policy Framework Paper, 1998-2000

Tables

Table 1. Rwanda: Summary and Timetable of Policy Actions, 1998/99-2000/011
Policy Area Objectives and Targets Strategies and Measures Implementation TA
Requirements2
Theme I. Strengthening Public Resource Mobilization and Macroeconomic Management
Revenue Improve revenues by 0.5 percent of GDP a year to achieve similar improvement in the primary current budgetary balance during 1998-2001. Improve tax administration through the Rwanda Revenue Authority (RRA), including the establishment of a large-enterprise unit (combining functions of assessment, collection, and audit), and introduction of a tax identification number for all enterprises. Ongoing IMF, DFID
    Assess petroleum imports at border, use reference price for customs valuation of petroleum imports, and collect advance payments on transit imports. 1998  
    Assess and recover 1996-97 tax arrears from enterprises and collect scheduled debt service on retroceded debt from public enterprises starting in 1998. 1999 budget IMF
    Enhance collection of excise revenue from soft drinks, alcoholic beverages, and cigarettes, and expand the base of sales tax through elimination of sales tax exemptions. Mid-1998  
    Strengthen the tax effort by applying a 4 percent turnover tax to enterprises with turnover of less than RF 100 million. From July 1998  
    Eliminate sales tax exemptions on imports of capital and transport equipment, and introduce input credit mechanism for large enterprises (in view of future value-added tax (VAT)). 1999 IMF
  Prepare for introduction of VAT. Adopt VAT implementation plan. 1998 IMF
    Adopt VAT law and publicize envisaged VAT introduction. 1999  
    Introduce VAT. 2000  
External resource mobilization and debt Improve mobilization and coordination of external assistance. Establish External Aid Mobilization and Project Coordination Bureau in Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MFEP). Mid-1998 UNDP, WB
  Regularize financial relations with creditors and reduce debt-service burden. Reach agreements with Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors on multiyear debt relief; seek agreement with multilateral creditors on eliminating arrears. 1998  
  Improve debt management. Establish debt monitoring committee (MFEP and National Bank of Rwanda (NBR)) to strengthen debt-management and debt-monitoring capabilities. Done May 1998 AfDB
    Put in place a computerized debt-management and debt-monitoring system in MFEP and NBR. 1998 AfDB
Budget and treasury management Strengthen expenditure control and treasury management systems. Ensure effective operation of decentralized expenditure management system, including effective payroll management. Ongoing IMF
    Maintain centralized system of "engagements" and payments (treasury). Ongoing  
    Improve budgetary management through enhanced cash forecasting and monitoring. Ongoing  
    Improve the accuracy and analytical and forecasting capacity of Fiscal Reporting and Analysis Division. Ongoing IMF, AfDB
    Promulgate an organic budget law that requires a macroeconomic framework for budget preparation and defines timing and responsibilities in the budget process. December 1998 IMF, WB
    Further computerize budget and treasury operations. 1998-99 AfDB
    Transfer all ministries' bank accounts to the treasury account with the NBR. 1998  
Public investment Implement a prioritized and effective public investment program (PIP) in line with national priorities. Enhance the capacity of and the process for preparing and monitoring public investment projects. Ongoing AfDB, UNDP, WB
    Strengthen the integration of the recurrent and development budgets, including commencing a program budgeting approach in key sectors, subject to availability of technical assistance. 1999 IMF, WB
Efficiency, transparency, and accountability Enhance budget transparency and accountability. Incorporate extrabudgetary accounts into national budget. 1998  
    Develop a system of public accounts. 1998-99 AfDB
    Establish and make operational an Auditor-General's office. 1999 UNDP
  Strengthen public sector procurement. Strengthen the Central Tender Board to regulate and monitor government purchases. Ongoing UNDP
  Improve the effectiveness of managing public resources. Design and implement capacity-building programs for the MFEP, NBR, Ministry of Public Services and Labor, and the programming and budgeting units of line ministries. Ongoing IMF, AfDB, UNDP, WB, donors
    Establish a technical assistance steering committee, composed of senior staff from the MFEP, NBR, and the Ministry of Public Services and Labor. May 1998 IMF, AfDB, UNDP, WB, donors
Statistics Improve the quality and timeliness of economic statistics to facilitate policy analysis. Implement recommendations of technical assistance missions, including through provision of adequate counterpart resources. Ongoing IMF, UNDP, WB
Planning Development Rwanda's strategic vision for 2020. Complete the preparation phase and establish and make operational the Rwanda Planning Commission. 1998-1999 UNDP, WB
Theme II. Financial, Monetary, and Exchange Reforms
Monetary policy instruments Maintain low and stable inflation. Introduce treasury/central bank bills and ensure coordination between MFEP and NBR, and promote secondary markets. September 1998 IMF
Financial sector reform Improve the legal and regulatory framework for financial institutions. Submit to parliament a revised banking law. June 1998 IMF
    Set up Insurance Commission. 1998-99 UNDP
  Strengthen the financial position of banks. Complete financial audits for commercial banks for 1996/97 and review and revise restructuring plans. 1998 WB
    Undertake comprehensive financial audits of all commercial banks and adopt restructuring plans. September 1998  
Theme III. Private Sector Development Reforms
  Enhance private sector capacity to generate economic growth. Adopt the revised business laws and reactivate and reform the Commercial Chamber of the Civil Court. 1998-2000 WB
    Privatize the Chamber of Commerce and develop structured dialogue between the government and the private sector. 1999-2000 WB
    Revise the labor code to eliminate discriminatory gender restrictions on labor mobility, as well as wage controls and minimum wage stipulations. 1998 WB
  Increase foreign and domestic investment and growth of domestic production and exports. Adopt Investment Promotion Act to establish Rwanda Investment Promotion Agency, with additional missions of export promotion and business development, and with minimal discretionary tax incentives. 1998  
    Revise the mining code to attract investors. 1999  
    Reduce company profit tax to 35 percent. 2000 budget  
  Privatize public enterprises. Strengthen the Technical Support Unit of the Privatization Commission. 1998 WB, UNDP
    Adopt an action plan and a timetable for offer for sale/liquidation of enterprises identified for divestiture. 1998 WB, UNDP, EU
    Privatize or liquidate 55 public enterprises. 1998-2001  
    Sell three coffee factories (in 1998) and privatize tea factories (in 1999). 1998-99  
    Liquidate/privatize the Caisse d'Épargne and the Caisse Hypothécaire. 1999  
  Reform the telecommunications sector to improve services and reduce tariffs. Publish audited accounts of telecommunications company (Rwandatel) for 1996 and 1997 financial years; and regularize cross debts between government and Rwandatel. 1998  
    Prepare and adopt a telecommunications sector regulatory framework to permit private sector participation in the sector. End-1998 WB
    Initiate and finalize the privatization of Rwandatel. 1998-99  
  Reform energy and water sector to provide these services more efficiently. Contract an experienced operator to manage the utility company (Electrogaz). September 1998 WB
    Develop options for restructuring Electrogaz, including its separation into electricity, water, and gas companies, and privatize certain functions. 1998 WB
    Prepare and adopt an energy sector regulatory framework, develop an action plan for private capital participation in the sector, and propose options for restructuring Electrogaz. September 1999 WB
Social security reform Restructure Caisse Sociale du Rwanda (CSR). Develop detailed action plan for the financial and operational restructuring of CSR. March 1999 ILO, WB
    Consolidate government's debt to the CSR. 1999  
Theme IV. External Trade Reforms and Export Development
  Promote export-led growth and development, and comply with Cross-Border Initiative (CBI). Conduct a study to investigate constraints to competitiveness of Rwanda's exports. 1999 WB
    Harmonize tariff code in line with CBI, with low or zero rates for capital goods and raw materials. 1999 IMF, EU
    Replace the Magerwa tax with a 3 percent statistical tax. 1999  
    Implement existing export duty drawback system. 1999 IMF, EU
Theme V. Improving Infrastructure
Transportation Enhance the integration of Rwanda into the regional economy and make it the regional hub. Elaborate a transport sector investment strategy and an action plan for medium- and long-term development. 1999-2000 WB
  Protect capital investment in roads and improve sector management and road safety. Reform law on the Road Fund; review and revise the traffic code; and expand road network to circumvent bottlenecks. 1998-2001 WB
  Reduce transportation costs. Encourage reestablishment of private truck cooperatives to restore free movement of goods to markets. 1999  
  Increase efficiency of air transportation sector and improve accessibility through railway services. Investigate greater privatization; encourage competition in the air, passenger, and freight sectors; and elaborate feasibility and investment proposals for a railway linking Rwanda to neighboring countries. 1999-2000 Donors
Communications Improve communications throughout the country and its connection to the rest of the world. Increase the number and broaden the coverage of telephones in rural and urban centers (related to privatization of Rwandatel). 1999 WB
Water supply and sanitation Improve access to water supply and sanitation services in rural and urban areas. Elaborate investment proposals based on sector strategy for improved access to water supply and sanitation in both rural and urban areas. 1999-2001 WB
Urban development Improve the urban environment and the availability and efficient utilization of urban land. Prepare and adopt a Land Use Master Plan for Kigali and other cities. 1998-2001 WB
  Resolve the acute urban housing problem and that of the associated utilities, especially water, energy, and construction sites; facilitate the reintegration of returning urban refugees and accommodate the growing urban population. Develop a land-titling and cadastre system that facilitates the development of land and housing markets, facilitates the conversion process and housing finance systems, and develops the urban tax base. 1998-2001 AfDB, WB
    Design and implement a Kigali water supply and sanitation services program. 1998-2001 WB
    Prepare and adopt a Kigali housing sector regulatory framework to permit private sector participation in the sector. 1998-2001 WB, donors
    Make housing construction sites viable for private sector development. 1998-2001 WB, donors
    Build institutional capacity in urban governments. 1998-2001  
Theme VI. Public Service Reform
Reorganization of public service Develop an effective and appropriately sized public service. Establish a high-level task force to develop a vision for Rwanda's public service for consideration by cabinet by end-1998. 1998 WB
  Rationalize the functions of the public service. Establish and make operational an independent Public Service Commission to oversee public service reform, including staffing levels, recruitment, job training, and organizational structure of ministries. Early 1999 UNDP, WB
Capacity building Assess the institutional capacity needs. Carry out an institutional assessment of government agencies to identify critical capacity needs and institutional reforms. 1998 WB
Public service employment and payroll Control the size of the public service and improve public service qualifications. Streamline public service recruitment procedures at the level of the MFEP and the Ministry of Public Services and Labor to ensure an efficient public service. 1998  
    Develop job descriptions for all public service positions and implement system for classification of positions. March-September 1998 WB
    Implement program to improve the qualification levels of civil servants (including teachers) by providing in-service training and by progressively replacing unqualified by qualified civil servants. 1998-2001  
    Implement the first phase of the program:    
   
  • carry out a physical census of public servants and remove identified ghost/double-counted workers, reinsert qualified teachers, and retrench unqualified staff; and
January-June 1998  
   
  • define appropriate severance pay and retraining package, including cost estimates for inclusion in revised 1998 budget.
April-September 1998  
Public service pay and incentives Improve the pay and incentive structure of the public service. Develop revised pay structure based on improving salaries to a "living wage," monetization of all or most fringe benefits, and decompression of wage scales for implementation in the 1999 budget. September 1998 WB
Theme VII. Building Human Resources, Skills Formation, and Capacity Building at Higher Management Level
Budget allocations Improve access to social services, particularly for the poor in rural areas. Increase proportion of budget allocated to education and health to ensure increase in per capita spending. 1998-2001  
Education and training Rebuild the skill base necessary for the growth of the country's economy. Fill gap left by genocide by strengthening vocational, technical, and management training. 1998-2001 Donors
  Increase the access to, and quality and relevance of, education. Revise sector strategy and formulate medium-term policy, expenditure, and financing framework. September 1998 WB, UNDP, DFID, UNESCO
    Improve quality of, and access to, basic education and strengthen higher education to emphasize science and technology. 1998-2001 AfDB
    Introduce new curriculum, strengthen teacher training, and enhance supply of learning materials. 1998-99  
Health sector Improve access to, and quality of, health services. Update the sector strategy and formulate a medium-term policy, expenditure, and financing framework. September 1998 WB
    Increase the number of trained medical and nursing staff in primary health care; emphasize immunization, nutrition programs, and AIDS control programs. 1998-2001  
    Train more medical professionals and technicians. Ongoing  
    Formulate and adopt a population policy. 2000  
Gender and role of women Establish framework for development of women. Finalize and adopt laws to give women the rights to inherit and own property. 1998  
    Follow through with educating the public on the laws on women's rights to ensure compliance. 1998-99  
    Increase enrollment, retention, and progression of girls in educational institutions, and strengthen nonformal education targeting rural women. 1998-2001  
Theme VIII. Poverty Reduction and Revitalizing the Rural Economy
Poverty reduction and rural development Improve living conditions in rural areas and reduce poverty generally. Formulate and implement a poverty eradication strategy and action plan. 1999-2000 WB, AfDB, UNDP
  Assist and empower vulnerable groups. Undertake targeted poverty alleviation programs at communal level. 1998-2001 AfDB, UNDP
  Systematically monitor poverty and social indicators. Establish a poverty-monitoring Observatoire between MFEP and social ministries. 1998 AfDB, UNDP
Reviving agriculture Achieve rapid agricultural productivity growth based on a more intensive and efficient use of land. Formulate and adopt an agricultural sector strategy and action plan based on stakeholder consultations. 1998 EU, FAO, WB
    Adopt a land reform law that provides for security of tenure and improves land use. 1998-2001 WB
    Develop a policy on utilization of food aid. 1999  
  Develop a strategy and action plan for modern livestock development, as well as for the fisheries subsector. Study, design, and implement systems to improve availability of veterinary services, drugs and water, and to improve breeding. 1998-2001 Donors
    Study and implement a system for improved development of fisheries.    
  Develop a sustainable agricultural input distribution system. Study and implement a market-based distribution system for fertilizers, high-yielding seed varieties, and other inputs, with subsidies granted to target groups. 1998-99 WB
    Develop rural credit and other financial mechanisms for rural-based activities. 1998-2001 WB
  Produce, process, and market coffee efficiently. Revise coffee sector laws and regulations to further liberalize coffee sector and establish a proper role for OCIR-CAFE. 1999-2000  
    Progressively eliminate the coffee export tax. 1999-2000  
  Improve level and quality of both traditional and nontraditional export crops. Raise producer prices for tea by reducing the gap vis-à-vis world price. Revise the price structure to pay a premium price for higher-quality tea. 1998-99  
    Develop a regulatory framework for the tea sector to support privatization and liberalization of the sector. 1999  
Renewing natural resources Arrest further environmental degradation and renew and protect natural resources and biodiversity. Strengthen the capacity for environmental policy development and assessment, and for the enforcement of environmental regulations. Ongoing  
    Review and update the National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP). March 1999  
Theme IX. National Reintegration, Governance, Transparency, and Reconciliation
Rebuilding the social fabric, reintegration, and national reconciliation Foster conditions for peaceful coexistence of all Rwandese and for respect for human rights. Assist new- and old-case load refugees and vulnerable groups in economic and social reintegration. Ongoing  
    Establish commissions for human rights, national reconciliation, and legal and constitutional affairs. 1998  
    Strengthen capacity to expedite trials of genocide perpetrators. 1998-2001  
  Support the victims of genocide. Make operational the Genocide Victims' Assistance Fund. Ongoing  
Decentralization Strengthen community spirit, decentralize decision making, and enhance participation at community level. Build and strengthen the role of local communities and the poor in economic and social decision making; strengthen nonformal education and other capacity-building efforts targeted at rural populations. 1998-2001 WB, UNDP
Demobilization Progressively reduce the burden of defense expenditures on public resources, consistent with security needs. Complete the action plan regarding phased demobilization of soldiers, and continue with demobilization. Ongoing WB, UNDP
Reintegration Reintegrate demobilized and returned former soldiers into productive and peaceful civilian life. Provide short-term reinsertion assistance to demobilized soldiers. Provide long-term assistance for economic and social integration, including vocational training programs and microfinance schemes for demobilized and returned former soldiers. 1998-2001 GTZ, UNDP, donors
Governance and transparency Provide for greater accountability and transparency. Establish an Anti-Corruption Bureau/Inspectorate General of Government. 1999 Donors
1 April 1998 through March 2001.
2 Technical Assistance (TA) Requirements: AfDB = African Development Bank; DFID = Department for International Development; EU = European Union; FAO = Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; GTZ = Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit; ILO = International Labor Organization; IMF = International Monetary Fund; UNDP = United Nations Development Program; UNESCO = United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; and WB = World Bank.

 
 
Table 2. Rwanda: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1993-2001
  1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
1998 1999 2000 2001
          Orig. Est.
Projections
  (Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)
Output and prices

   Real GDP growth

-8.1 -49.5 36.6 12.0 12.7 10.9 6.7 8.0 8.0 7.5

   GDP deflator

13.9 15.0 54.2 9.6 5.0 18.6 8.5 5.5 5.0 4.7

   Consumer prices (period average)

8.6 64.0 22.0 8.9 7.0 12.0 11.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

   Consumer prices (end-period)

12.5 64.4 38.3 9.2 5.0 17.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
                     
External sector

   Export, f.o.b (in U.S. dollars)

-1.6 -52.5 56.8 22.9 3.5 41.0 -9.1 3.3 7.6 11.6

   Imports, f.o.b (in U.S. dollars)

11.1 37.2 -47.2 9.9 22.3 31.5 14.6 7.9 8.5 8.7

   Export volume

-13.6 -54.0 1.5 42.6 -1.8 24.8 5.3 14.8 13.7 12.7

   Import volume

15.0 29.2 -53.8 5.1 24.4 45.3 15.7 6.3 7.1 7.1

   Nominal effective exchange rate (end-period; depreciation -)

22.4 2.9 -54.8 3.8 . . . 11.3 . . . . . . . . . . . .

   Real effective exchange rate

16.0 51.3 -39.4 9.2 . . . 20.0 . . . . . . . . . . . .

   Terms of trade (deterioration -)

20.9 0.7 37.3 -16.1 7.3 22.5 -12.8 -11.3 -6.6 -2.4
                     
Government finance                    

   Revenue and grants

-0.6 -82.9 720.0 15.1 26.9 40.9 22.0 3.0 14.0 15.9

   Revenue

-6.2 -76.8 285.0 70.6 25.8 47.3 19.7 19.2 18.6 19.0

   Total expenditure and net lending

-0.9 -60.5 160.9 37.2 36.4 19.5 39.0 2.3 9.1 10.7

   Current expenditure

-4.8 -49.0 89.6 32.8 7.7 14.5 29.7 9.2 9.7 10.7
                     
Money and credit

   Net domestic assets1

24.1 -2.2 3.2 -7.6 9.0 15.0 9.6 10.2 . . . . . .

   Domestic credit1

22.3 -7.8 -2.4 -2.6 15.1 24.1 12.0 13.8 . . . . . .

      Government1

11.3 -1.6 -35.1 -2.8 6.9 0.4 0.9 3.0 . . . . . .

      Economy1

11.0 -6.1 32.8 0.2 8.2 23.7 11.1 10.9 . . . . . .

   Money and quasi-money (M2)

4.7 -7.6 71.9 8.3 20.6 27.6 17.3 13.9 13.4 12.6

   Reserve money

27.9 8.9 37.7 22.4 28.0 11.2 16.3 12.0 . . . . . .

   Velocity (ratio of GDP to M2)

4.5 7.2 5.5 6.3 5.9 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4

   Interest rate (one-year savings deposits; end-period)

9.0 9.0 12.0 11.0 . . . 11.4 . . . . . . . . . . . .
                     
  (In percent of GDP)
National income accounts                    

   National savings (excluding official transfers)

0.4 -49.0 -11.9 -8.9 -1.1 -6.8 -4.9 -2.1 -0.5 2.2

      Of which: private

7.3 -39.2 -6.5 -5.0 . . . -5.8 -2.8 -1.1 -0.3 1.4

   Gross investment

15.2 4.3 8.6 10.3 17.5 10.8 15.2 16.1 16.6 18.0

      Of which: private

7.6 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.8 3.4 6.5 7.4 9.0
                     
Government finance                    

   Total revenue and grants

15.5 4.6 17.7 16.6 18.6 17.8 18.7 16.9 17.0 17.5

   Total revenue

9.1 3.7 6.7 9.3 10.3 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.4

   Total expenditure and net lending

23.6 16.1 20.0 22.3 27.7 20.3 24.3 21.9 21.0 20.7

      Current expenditure

15.3 13.4 12.1 13.1 12.7 11.4 12.8 12.2 11.8 11.7

   Primary fiscal balance

                   

      Including exceptional social expenditure2

-4.1 -5.3 -3.2 -2.2 -0.9 0.2 -1.1 -0.2 0.6 1.5

      Excluding exceptional social expenditure and including domestic capital expenditure

-4.1 -5.4 -3.2 -1.8 -1.1 0.3 -0.2 0.4 1.1 1.5

   Overall balance (payment order)

                   

      Excluding grants

-14.5 -12.4 -13.3 -13.1 -17.4 -9.9 -13.7 -10.7 -9.3 -8.3

      Including grants

-8.2 -11.5 -2.3 -5.7 -9.0 -2.5 -5.6 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2
                     
External sector

   External current account balance

      Excluding official transfers

-14.8 -53.4 -20.5 -19.1 -18.6 -17.6 -20.1 -18.2 -17.0 -15.8

      Including official transfers

-6.4 -6.2 4.6 -0.3 -7.8 -4.9 -6.1 -6.3 -5.5 -4.8

   External debt (end-period)3

42.7 138.3 88.6 79.6 83.4 62.7 63.6 63.9 62.1 58.8

   Debt-service ratio (in percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services)

25.8 62.4 54.4 44.4 44.8 32.4 41.1 49.0 48.0 42.5

   Gross reserves (in months of imports, c.i.f.)

1.6 1.3 5.0 5.0 4.4 5.3 6.0 6.5 5.9 4.4
                     
  (In millions of U. S. dollars)

   Overall balance of payments

-63.6 -32.0 64.1 -0.5 -84.1 -11.6 -80.2 -93.0 -81.8 -77.5

   External arrears

. . . . . . . . . 79.5 0.0 97.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

   External financing gap

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 101.1 0.0 192.3 103.1 58.8 42.9

   External debt (end-period)3

841 1038 1064 1111 1256 1164 1304 1450 1569 1640

   Gross official reserves

48 51 99 107 112 153 196 230 228 182
                     
Memorandum items:                    

   Nominal GDP (in billions of RF)5

284.4 165.1 347.7 427.0 482.8 561.6 650.1 740.7 839.9 945.4

   Nominal exchange rate (period average; per U.S. dollar)

144.3 220.0 290.0 306.0 320.4 302.4 317.0 326.2 332.6 339.0

   Domestic debt (end-period; in percent of GDP)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.8 13.7 12.2 10.4 9.3
Sources: Rwandese authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1 As percent of beginning-of-period broad money stock.
2 Definition used for the 1997 performance benchmark; excludes all capital expenditure.
3 Including Fund obligations, external arrears, and financing gap; before debt rescheduling and hypothetical stock-of-debt operation.
4 Scheduled debt service before rescheduling and stock-of-debt operation.
5 In December 1997, the national accounts for 1995-97 were revised upward by a cumulative 10 percent reflecting an adjustment in the GDP deflator.

 
 
Table 3. Rwanda: External Financing Requirement and Sources, 1995-2001
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
     
Est.

Proj.
Resource balance -267.4 -279.1 -341.0 -426.8 -429.8 -447.4 -461.9

   Exports goods and nonfactor services

66.6 83.5 110.2 102.1 109.0 120.9 140.6

   Imports goods and nonfactor services

334.0 362.5 451.2 528.9 538.9 568.3 602.1
               
Noninterest current account (excluding official transfers) -232.3 -253.0 -314.6 -396.6 -397.1 -412.3 -423.6
Scheduled interest -13.9 -14.1 -12.2 -15.5 -16.6 -17.4 -17.5
               
Capital account -41.0 -50.7 39.1 -18.5 -22.3 -22.0 -23.2

   Scheduled amortization

-22.3 -21.7 -21.0 -24.0 -28.1 -28.9 -30.9

   Other capital1

-18.7 -29.1 60.1 5.5 5.9 6.9 7.7
               

Increase in net official reserves (excluding IMF -)

-73.2 -16.2 -47.5 -44.5 -33.8 2.0 46.0

Repurchases/repayments IMF

. . . -1.3 -2.5 -2.4 -8.6 -11.7 -11.4
               
Changes in arrears (decrease = -) -4.5 18.1 17.5 -97.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
               
External financing requirements -365.0 -317.3 -320.2 -575.1 -478.7 -461.6 -430.5
               

   Disbursements: existing commitments

365.0 317.3 320.2 380.6 343.3 370.2 387.6

      Grants (project and nonproject)

300.7 263.6 235.5 287.5 270.9 290.2 307.0

      Loans (project and nonproject)

50.7 53.7 63.9 93.1 72.3 80.0 80.5

         IDA

50.7 17.4 52.9 60.9 38.0 38.0 41.8

            Of which: Project

. . . . . . 32.9 30.9 38.0 38.0 41.9

         Other multilateral banks

0.0 36.3 11.0 32.2 34.3 42.0 38.7

            Of which: Project

      32.2 34.3 42.0 38.7

      Purchases from IMF

13.6 0.0 20.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
               

   Disbursements: expected new commitments

. . . . . . . . . 59.2 96.3 39.7 0.0

      Grants

. . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.0 7.0 0.0

      Loans

. . . . . . . . . 22.0 58.0 0.0 0.0

         IDA

. . . . . . . . . 10.0 50.0 . . . . . .

         AfDB

      12.0 8.0 . . . . . .

   Disbursements from IMF

. . . . . . . . . 32.2 32.3 32.7 0.0
               
Residual financing gap2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -135.2 -39.1 -51.8 -42.9
Sources: Rwandese authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1 Including foreign direct investment, short-term capital, and errors and omissions.
2 Including prospective debt relief from Paris Club (Naples terms) and non-Paris Club bilateral and commercial creditors on terms comparable to those granted by the Paris Club; possible refinancing for certain multilaterals; and prospective budget support from the World Bank, AfDB, EU, and bilateral donors. Assuming no stock-of-debt operation.

 
 
Table 4. Rwanda: Key Indicators of External Indebtedness, 1995-20011
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
 
Est.

Proj.
1. Total debt service (2+3) 36.2 37.0 35.7 42.0 53.4 58.0 59.9
2. Principal (5+22) 22.3 22.9 23.5 26.4 36.7 40.6 42.3
3. Interest (13+23) 13.9 14.1 12.2 15.6 16.7 17.4 17.5
4. Scheduled debt service on existing contracted debt (5+15) 36.2 37.0 35.7 40.2 49.9 52.8 53.6
5. Principal (6+12) 22.3 22.9 23.5 26.4 36.7 40.6 42.3
6. Medium- and long-term (7+8+11) 22.3 22.9 23.5 26.4 36.7 40.6 42.3
7. Multilateral 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.9 24.4 28.6 30.6
8. Official bilateral (9+10) 5.5 6.2 6.4 9.5 12.3 12.0 11.8
9. Paris Club 1.4 1.5 1.7 4.7 7.4 7.4 7.5
10. Other official2 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.2
11. Commercial2 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12. Short-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13. Interest (14+20) 13.9 14.1 12.2 13.9 13.1 12.3 11.2
14. Medium- and long-term (15+16+19) 13.9 14.1 12.2 13.9 13.1 12.3 11.2
15. Multilateral 10.3 10.6 9.0 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.1
16. Official bilateral (19+22) 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2
17. Paris Club (20+21) 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.6
18. Other official2 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5
19. Commercial2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20. Short-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21. Debt service on new borrowing (22+23) . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.6 5.1 6.3
22. Principal . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23. Interest . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.6 5.1 6.3
Memorandum items:
   Total debt service in percent of export of goods and nonfactor services
      Before flow rescheduling 54.4 44.4 32.4 41.1 49.0 48.0 42.5
      After flow rescheduling3 54.4 44.4 32.4 31.9 35.2 36.1 40.0
   Total debt stock (in U.S. dollars) 1063 1111 1164 1304 1450 1569 1640
   NPV of debt in percent of exports of goods and services3
   Debt service after rescheduling in percent of
      Government revenue 45.5 28.7 18.7 14.9 15.1 14.8 16.3
      Government expenditure 25.0 20.3 16.9 12.4 13.8 14.6 17.4
      Exports of goods and nonfactor services 66.6 83.5 110.2 102.1 109.0 120.9 140.6
Sources: Rwandese and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1 Public and publicly guaranteed debt.
2 Assuming that debt service vis-à-vis non-Paris Club bilateral and commercial creditors receives the same treatment as debt vis-à-vis Paris Club creditors (i.e., Naples terms).
3 Assuming a flow rescheduling on Naples terms of arrears outstanding at end-March 1998 and maturities falling due during March 1998-2001 vis-à-vis official bilateral and commercial creditors; no stock-of-debt operation is assumed.

 
 
Table 5. Rwanda: Selected Demographic and Social Indicators
(In units indicated)
Indicator 1980 1985 Most recent estimate (1995 unless otherwise stated) Sub-Saharan Africa
Total population (thousands) 5,136 6,954 7,850 571,902
   Annual growth rate (percent)1 3.4 2.4 3.6 2.8
   Urban population (in percent of total) . . . 5 8 31
   Life expectancy at birth (years) 47 . . . 39 52
      Male 45 . . . 40 51
      Female . . . . . . 38 54
   Total fertility rate (births per woman)2 8.2 . . . 8.3 6.1
         
Labor force
   Total, ages 15-64 (thousands) 2,637 3,630 4,017 251,637
   Employment in agriculture (percent of total) 93 91 90 65
         
Education
   Net primary school enrollment ratio (in percent) 63 70 70 66
      Male 66 70 . . . 79
      Female 60 69 . . . 62
   Secondary school enrollment ratio (in percent) 3 8 8 18
   Primary pupil to teacher ratio (pupils per teacher) 59 57 53 40
   Adult illiteracy rate (in percent of population ages 15 and above) . . . 50 40 53
      Of which: females . . . 63 48 54
         
Health
   Population per doctor (persons)3 31,482 37,153 38,902 . . .
   Population per nurse (persons)3 . . . . . . 7,023 . . .
   Population per hospital bed (persons) 654 . . . . . . 1,316
   Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 128 . . . 133 92
   Child malnutrition (percent of children under 5 yrs) . . . . . . 28 . . .
   Access to safe water (percentage of population)   . . . . . . 47
      Urban . . . 55 . . . . . .
      Rural . . . 68 . . . . . .
   Immunization rate (percent of population) . . . . . .    
      BCG . . . . . . 93 . . .
      Polio . . . . . . 99 . . .
      Measles . . . 52 88 60
 
Poverty
   Percentage of population below poverty line . . . 40 70 . . .
   Poverty gap (percentage by which average income of poor households is below poverty line) . . . 8 15 . . .
Source: World Bank.
1 The number in the 1995 column refers to 1997 estimates.
2 The number in the 1995 columns refers to 1996 estimates.
3 The number in the 1995 columns refers to 1991 estimates.

 
 

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