For more information, see Republic of Tajikistan and the IMF

Tajikistan—Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility—
Policy Framework Paper, 1998–2001

Tables

Table 1. Tajikistan: Selected Economic Indicators, 1997–2001
  1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

  (Percentage change over preceding period
unless otherwise indicated)
Production          
Nominal GDP (in billions of TR) 632.0 933.0 1,124.0 1,286.0 1,451.0
Nominal GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars) 1,087.4 1,242.1 1,498.7 1,714.0 1,935.0
Real GDP 1.7 3.4 4.0 4.0 4.5
           
Consumer Prices          
Annualized monthly average 88.0 58.3 14.8 10 8
12 months (end-of-period) 163.6 16.8 12.5 10 8
           
Monetary Indicators          
Reserve money (end of period) 193.5 9.3 22.1 15.9 16.0
Broad money (end of period) 110.7 19.8 26.3 22.1 22.8
Ruble broad money (end of period) 117.2 20.3 31.8 24.6 24.4
Banking system credit1,2 175.5 28.6 9.2 6.5 1.2
   Credit to government1 91.9 26.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
   Credit to economy1,2 83.5 2.5 9.2 6.5 1.2
Velocity3 18.5 18.1 17.2 15.4 14.0
           
General Government          
Revenue (cash basis)4 13.7 14.8 15.9 16.2 16.2
Expenditure (cash basis) 17.0 18.2 19.7 19.3 19.5
Cash balance (deficit –) -3.3 -3.3 -3.8 -3.1 -3.3
   Domestic financing5 2.2 1.9 -0.3 -0.5 0.2
   Gross external financing 1.2 2.0 4.9 5.5 5.6
   Other net external financing -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.9 -2.5
           
Exchange Rate (TR per US$, end of period)          
Official 748 750 750 750 750
Curb-market 815
           
External sector          
Exports of goods 746 762 849 939 1008
Imports of goods -759 -768 -854 -944 -1016
Current account balance -60 -56 -62 -70 -80
   (In percent of GDP) -5 -5 -4 -4 -4
Net international reserves -16 2 16 34 63
Gross international reserves 30 91 141 189 205
   In months of imports6 0.6 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.0

Sources: Tajik authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
1Change relative to ruble broad money at the beginning of the corresponding period.
2Excludes special cotton financing.
3Nominal GDP divided by average ruble broad money.
4Includes grants.
5Includes domestic bank financing and privatization proceeds.
6Imports of goods and services excluding alumina and electricity.
 

Table 2. Tajikistan: Income and Social Indicators, 1996–2001
  Unit of   1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
  Measure 1996 Prel. Prog. Proj. Proj. Proj.

Population              
Population (end year) million 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6
Population growth rate
   (annual average)
percentage change 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Urban population percent of total 72 72
               
Poverty              
Headcount Index1 percent of population 85
               
Income              
GDP per capita US-Dollars 173      179      200      237      265      294
Official wage (monthly average) US-Dollars 9 9 11 13 15 17
Real labor compensation index 1995=100 48 18 18 18 20 21
Employment (annual average) thousand 1,732
               
Social Indicators              
Life expectancy at birth years 67
Infant mortality rate per thousand live births 42
Illiteracy (population age 15+) percent of total 2
Gross primary school enrollment   89
   Male percent of school age population 91
   Female percent of school age population 88

Sources: Tajikistan authorities; and World Bank and IMF Staff estimates.
1Percent of population below the "food only" poverty line; see World Bank, Tajikistan: A Poverty Note, March 12, 1998.
 

Table 3. Tajikistan: External Financing Requirements and Sources, 1993-2001
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
            1998   1999   2000   2001
    1993   1994   1995   1996   1997
Program

Current account -233 -195 -79 -106 -100 -96 -102 -110 -120
Exports of goods and services 456 559 868 800 804 826 919 1013 1089
Imports of goods and services -686 -735 -907 -836 -868 -883 -978 -1081 -1164
                   
Nonincome current account
   (excluding grants)
-230 -176 -40 -36 -64 -57 -59 -68 -76
                   
Income (net) -4 -19 -39 -70 -36 -39 -43 -42 -44
                   
Capital account -101 -96 -93 -140 18 9 -1 -6 -11
Scheduled public sector amortization -15 -19 -102 -125 -40 -23 -12 -32 -47
IMF repurchases -5 -10 -13
FDI and other capital1 -86 -77 9 -15 58 32 16 36 49
                   
Increase in net official reserves (– increase) -2 1 -3 -10 -16 -61 -50 -48 -16
                   
Change in arrears (– decrease)2 17 37 112 -51 -19 -113
                   
External financing requirements -319 -253 -63 -308 -116 -261 -152 -164 -148
                   
Disbursements: existing commitments 96 69 46 88 72 65 11 8 4
Grants 25 25 25 30 40 40
Loans 71 44 20 37 22 15 11 8 4
   IDA 31 21 15 8 8 4
   Other international financial institutions 35 0 3 0 0
   Official bilateral creditors 37 44 20 6 1 0 0 0 0
IMF 22 10 10
                   
Disbursements: expected new commitments           79 124 126 114
Grants           40 40 40
Loans           30 44 46 74
   IDA--Project financing           0 4 11 16
   IDA--Structural Adjustment Credits           20 30 20 20
   Other international financial institutions           10 10 15 38
   Official bilateral creditors           0 0 0 0
IMF           49 40 40
                   
Debt rescheduling 222 184 17 220 44 2
                   
Residual financing gap3           115 17 30 30

Sources: Data provided by the Tajik authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
1Including change in commercial banks' NFA and net errors and omissions.
2Including movements in the special debt service account.
3In 1998, the residual financing gap is programmed to be filled by rescheduling of external arrears. In 2001, the residual financing gap falls outside of the program period supported by the ESAF arrangement.
 

Appendix I

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