IMF Executive Board Concludes 2010 Article IV Consultation with Dominica

Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 10/63
May 25, 2010

On May 10, 2010, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Dominica.1

Background

The global downturn has adversely affected the Dominican economy through lower tourism arrivals, foreign direct investment inflows and remittances, although less severely than other Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) economies. Real Gross Domestic Product is estimated to have declined by only 0.3 percent in 2009. Total tourism receipts contracted by 16 percent during 2009. This decline reflected falling stayover arrivals after the Reunion 2008 event and greater discounting in 2009 partly offset by growth in cruise arrivals. FDI and remittances inflows dropped by 51 percent and 18 percent respectively in 2009.

In response to the global slowdown, the government decided to maintain capital spending in 2009 at the high post-hurricane level in 2008. Despite high capital spending, the overall fiscal position remained in surplus during FY 2008/09 (July–June) and so far in FY 2009/10. This reflects primarily continuing strong performance of the VAT introduced in 2006.The strong performance also helped finance a scaling up of social assistance to protect the poor from the effects of the 2008 spike in food and fuel prices and the global economic slowdown.

Consumer price inflation has picked up recently. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.4 percent (yoy) through February 2010, as increases in world food and fuel prices were passed through. This reflected a pick up in the later part of the year. On a period average basis, inflation was close to zero.

The external current account deficit decreased to 28 percent of GDP in 2009. In 2008, the deficit had widened to 32 percent of GDP due to higher reconstruction-related and fuel imports, which were mostly financed by external grants and FDI. Lower FDI-related and fuel imports in 2009 are estimated to have more than offset lower tourism receipts and remittances. To mitigate the adverse impact of the global downturn on the balance of payments, the Executive Board on July 10, 2009 approved a disbursement of SDR 3.28 million (about US$5.1 million) under the Rapid-Access Component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility.

Monetary aggregates show steady growth and the banking system has remained resilient. In the 12 months to December 2009, banking sector credit to the private sector grew by 6.9 percent and broad money by 10 percent. Prudential indicators suggest that banks are liquid and well capitalized, with declining nonperforming loans. The average nonperforming loans ratio and capital-based soundness indicators remain above prudential norms, although returns on assets have declined markedly in recent years.

The collapse of the Trinidad and Tobago-based CL Financial Group has exposed regional weaknesses in the regulation of nonbanks. The eight KPMG judicial managers appointed in each ECCU jurisdiction for the British American Insurance Company (BAICO) issued a joint report in October 2009 finding that the company is insolvent and illiquid. The ECCU member authorities are making progress in the creation of a new company to take over BAICO’s operations in the region.

The near to medium-term economic outlook is modestly positive. With the recovery of the global economy and expected improvements in international trade and tourism activities, the Dominican economy is expected to grow by 1½ percent in 2010. The downside risks are related to a potentially very slow recovery in advanced economies, which would adversely affect tourism activity. In addition, a rebalancing of global demand could imply weaker demand for tourism services from Dominica’s main source markets.

Executive Board Assessment

The Executive Directors noted that the Dominican economy has been more resilient to the global crisis than other ECCU countries and that its near- to medium-term outlook is positive. Directors welcomed the authorities’ Growth and Social Protection Strategy, which is appropriately aimed at guiding the economy toward fostering growth and reducing poverty while lowering public debt. Downside risks relate to a slower global recovery, possibly implying weaker demand for tourism.

Directors commended the authorities’ prudent fiscal policy stance in recent years, which has placed public debt on a declining path and allowed the government to respond to the global downturn by keeping capital spending in 2009 at high levels. They encouraged the authorities to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio further, thus maintaining the ability to respond to external shocks.

Most Directors expressed concern that the large externally financed projects could significantly slow the pace of decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio. While the likely departure from the fiscal anchor of a primary surplus of 3 percent of GDP implied by a loan for education and infrastructure projects is expected to be temporary, it risks undermining fiscal performance in the coming years. Directors encouraged the authorities to return rapidly to the fiscal anchor that has served the economy well. The expenditure that the authorities have contemplated on a large new tourism project carries considerable commercial risks. Directors recommended conducting an objective and independent assessment of the project, obtaining financing on concessional terms where feasible and— if the project proceeds—exploring partnerships with the private sector. A few Directors were of the view that some flexibility in borrowing and a temporary deviation from the declining debt trend with prudent policies should not be ruled out.

Directors stressed the importance of strengthening the supervision of the financial sector, including on-site examination of the insurance companies and credit unions. They welcomed the establishment of a single regulatory unit for the nonbank sector. Directors also welcomed the authorities’ regional approach to address the collapse of the Trinidad and Tobago-based CL Financial Group and recommended that the resolution strategy should avoid systemic spillovers while minimizing fiscal costs.

Directors recognized the recent considerable progress with structural reforms and noted that sustained efforts, geared toward improving the business climate, will be critical for achieving the growth target.


Dominica: Selected Economic and Social Indicators

 
 

 

 

Prel. Proj.
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
 
(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified)

Output and prices

 

 

 

 

 

Real GDP

4.8 2.5 3.2 -0.3 1.4

GDP deflator

-0.1 2.1 2.6 -0.3 2.0

Consumer prices (end of period)

1.8 6.0 2.1 3.2 1.5

Money and credit 1/

         

Net foreign assets of the banking system

15.6 5.7 3.9 6.0 3.0

Net domestic assets of the banking system

-5.7 4.0 0.4 4.0 2.6

Of which

         

Net credit to the nonfinancial public sector

-8.8 -3.2 -0.3 -1.6 -2.9

Credit to the private sector

7.6 3.4 5.5 4.8 5.4

Liabilities to the private sector (M2)

9.9 9.7 4.3 10.0 5.6

Balance of payments

         

Merchandise exports, f.o.b.

3.1 -11.7 -7.2 -6.4 5.6

Merchandise imports, f.o.b.

0.6 17.3 14.5 -11.6 -0.7

Real effective exchange rate

         

(end of period, depreciation -)

-0.6 -2.0 -1.5 1.9
   

Central government 3/

(In percent of GDP)

Revenue

32.7 33.4 34.6 35.6 35.7

Grants 4/

7.5 11.3 11.6 11.3 8.2

Capital expenditure and net lending

9.9 14.2 16.0 16.0 15.4

Primary balance 4/

5.8 4.6 3.1 3.0 1.2

Overall balance 4/

3.6 2.2 0.9 0.8 -1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nonfinancial public sector debt (gross) 5/

95.7 90.9 84.9 83.8 83.1

External

67.7 63.6 58.9 60.1 59.8

Domestic

28.0 27.3 26.0 23.8 23.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

External sector

 

 

 

 

 

Current account balance

-15.7 -25.0 -31.8 -28.1 -25.4

Current account balance including net capital transfers

-6.9 -15.8 -16.7 -13.3 -14.0

 

(In percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services)

External public debt service

11.2 10.6 10.3 12.9 15.3

Amortization

7.5 7.2 7.1 8.4 9.8

Interest

3.6 3.4 3.3 4.5 5.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Memorandum items:

 

 

 

 

 

Nominal GDP at market prices (EC$ millions)

 

 

     

Calendar year

856 921 984 978 1,012

Net imputed international reserves

         

(U.S. dollars millions; end-of-period)

63.0 60.4 55.1 64.5 64.5
 

Sources: Dominican authorities; Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB); and IMF staff estimates and projections.
1/ Change relative to the stock of M2 at the beginning of the period.
2/ Including errors and omissions.
3/ Fiscal year (July–June) basis. Figures shown for a given calendar year relate to the fiscal year beginning on July 1 of that year.
4/ Does not include grants that were received but not spent.
5/ Includes central government liabilities to Dominica Social Security.


1 Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.



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