IMF Publications by Subject

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Economic forecasting
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Title: Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation:The Case of Sierra Leone
Author/Editor:Gottschalk, Jan ; Kalonji, Kadima D. ; Miyajima, Ken
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 08/271
Subject: Inflation ; Sierra Leone ; Data analysis ; Economic forecasting ; Oil prices ; Money supply ; Exchange rate depreciation ; Forecasting models
Title: Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?
Author/Editor:Berg, Andrew ; Borensztein, Eduardo ; Pattillo, Catherine A.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 04/52
Subject: Crisis prevention ; Currencies ; Economic indicators ; Economic forecasting ; Forecasting models ; Balance of payments need
Title: The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises
Author/Editor:Berg, Andrew ; Pattillo, Catherine A.
lblSeries:Economic Issues No. 22
Subject: Financial crisis ; Economic forecasting
Title: Chile: Selected Issues
lblSeries:Country Report No. 06/336
Subject: Central banks ; Economic forecasting ; Liquidity ; Chile ; Public sector ; Public debt
Title: Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting
Author/Editor:Christoffersen, Peter F. ; Diebold, Francis X.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 97/61
Subject: Economic forecasting ; Economic models
Title: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation
Author/Editor:Crowe, Christopher W.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 10/178
Subject: Cross country analysis ; Economic forecasting ; Economic growth ; Gross domestic product
Title: Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis
Author/Editor:Chen, Huigang ; Clinton, Kevin ; Johnson, Marianne ; Kamenik, Ondra ; Laxton, Douglas
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 09/214
Subject: Bank credit ; Credit restraint ; Economic forecasting ; Economic models ; European Union ; Inflation targeting ; Interest rates ; Japan ; Monetary policy ; Oil prices ; United States
Title: The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States
Author/Editor:Chan-Lau, Jorge A. ; Ivaschenko, Iryna V.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 02/8
Subject: Economic forecasting ; United States ; Industrial production ; Economic models
Title: Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?
Author/Editor:John C Bluedorn ; Jörg Decressin ; Marco Terrones
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 13/203
Subject: Asset prices ; Group of seven ; Stock markets ; Business cycles ; Economic recession ; Economic forecasting ; Economic models
Title: Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?
Author/Editor:Reichsfeld, David A ; Roache, Shaun K.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 11/254
Subject: Commodity markets ; Commodity prices ; Economic forecasting ; Forecasting models
Title: Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts
Author/Editor:Laurence M. Ball ; João Tovar Jalles ; Prakash Loungani
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 14/24
Subject: Unemployment ; Economic growth ; Economic forecasting
Title: Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models
Author/Editor:Coenen, Günter ; Erceg, Christopher ; Freedman, Charles ; Furceri, Davide ; Kumhof, Michael ; Lalonde, René ; Laxton, Douglas ; Lindé, Jesper ; Mourougane, Annabelle ; Muir, Dirk ; Mursula, Susanna ; Roberts, John ; Roeger, Werner ; de Resende, Carlos ; Snudden, Stephen ; Trabandt, Mathias ; in ‘t Veld, Jan
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 10/73
Subject: Budget deficits ; Cross country analysis ; Economic forecasting ; Economic models ; Europe ; Fiscal policy ; Government expenditures ; Monetary policy ; Public debt ; Stabilization measures ; Taxes ; United States
Title: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts
Author/Editor:Timmermann, Allan
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 06/59
Subject: World Economic Outlook ; Economic forecasting ; Economic conditions
Title: Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area
Author/Editor:Matheson, Troy
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 11/93
Subject: Economic conditions ; Economic forecasting ; Euro Area ; Forecasting models ; United States
Title: Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows
Author/Editor:Leeper, Eric M. ; Walker, Todd B. ; Yang, Shu-Chun S.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 12/153
Subject: Asset prices ; Economic forecasting ; Fiscal policy ; Forecasting models ; Tax policy
Title: Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya
Author/Editor:Andrle, Michal ; Berg, Andrew ; Morales, R. ; Portillo, Rafael ; Vlcek, Jan
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 13/61
Subject: Economic forecasting ; Kenya ; Food imports ; Inflation ; Monetary policy ; Low-income developing countries ; Forecasting models
Title: Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy Is (Still) a Matter of Geography
Author/Editor:Berger, Helge ; Ehrmann, Michael ; Fratzscher, Marcel
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 06/41
Subject: Monetary policy ; Europe ; European Central Bank ; Economic forecasting ; Data collection ; Data analysis
Title: Forecasting U.S. Investment
Author/Editor:Lee, Jaewoo ; Rabanal, Pau
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 10/246
Subject: Demand ; Economic forecasting ; Economic growth ; Economic models ; Industrial investment ; Information technology ; Private consumption ; Private sector ; Software ; United States
Title: Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
Author/Editor:Billmeier, Andreas
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 04/146
Subject: Production ; Inflation ; Economic forecasting
Title: Global Relative Poverty
Author/Editor:Nielsen, Lynge
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 09/93
Subject: Poverty ; Income distribution ; Economic growth ; Economic forecasting ; Social indicators
Title: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
Author/Editor:Blanchard, Olivier ; Leigh, Daniel
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 13/1
Subject: Economic growth ; Fiscal policy ; Government expenditures ; Economic forecasting ; Economic models
Title: How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?
Author/Editor:Mühleisen, Martin ; Danninger, Stephan ; Hauner, David ; Krajnyák, Kornélia ; Sutton, Bennett
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 05/66
Subject: Budgets ; Canada ; Economic forecasting ; Forecasting models
Title: How Much Leverage is Too Much, or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession?
Author/Editor:Ivaschenko, Iryna V.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 03/3
Subject: Debt ; Exchange risk ; Economic recession ; Economic forecasting
Title: Identifying Fiscal Policy Transmission in Stochastic Debt Forecasts
Author/Editor:Kawakami, Kei ; Romeu, Rafael
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 11/107
Subject: Brazil ; Debt sustainability ; Economic forecasting ; Fiscal policy ; Public debt
Title: Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart
Author/Editor:Kannan, Prakash ; Elekdag, Selim
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 09/178
Subject: Data analysis ; Economic forecasting ; Economic growth ; Economic models ; Forecasting models ; Markets ; World Economic Outlook
Title: Inflation in Tajikistan: Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges
Author/Editor:Vtyurina, Svetlana ; Alturki, Fahad
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 10/17
Subject: Dollarization ; Banking sector ; Credit ; Economic forecasting ; Economic models ; Exchange rates ; Interest rates ; Reserve requirements
Title: Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports
Author/Editor:Bulir, Ales ; Smídková, Katerina ; Kotlán, Viktor ; Navrátil, David
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 08/234
Subject: Inflation targeting ; Central banks ; Economic forecasting ; Monetary policy ; Transparency ; Emerging markets ; Chile ; Czech Republic ; Hungary ; Poland ; Thailand ; Sweden
Title: Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel
Author/Editor:Dovern, Jonas ; Fritsche, Ulrich ; Loungani, Prakash ; Tamirisa, Natalia
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 13/56
Subject: Economic growth ; Developed countries ; Emerging markets ; Economic forecasting
Title: Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel
Author/Editor:Jonas Dovern ; Ulrich Fritsche ; Prakash Loungani ; Natalia T. Tamirisa
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 14/31
Subject: Economic forecasting ; Economic growth ; Developed countries ; Emerging markets ; Forecasting models
Title: Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
Author/Editor:Coibion, Olivier ; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 12/296
Subject: Economic forecasting ; Economic models
Title: Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence
Author/Editor:Loungani, Prakash ; Stekler, Herman ; Tamirisa, Natalia T.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 11/125
Subject: Cross country analysis ; Data analysis ; Developed countries ; Economic forecasting ; Economic growth ; Economic models ; Economic recession ; Emerging markets ; Financial crisis
Title: The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis: Inflation Forecastability and Asset Substitution"
Author/Editor:Choi, Woon Gyu
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 00/194
Subject: Inflation ; Economic forecasting ; Economic models
Title: Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap
Author/Editor:Billmeier, Andreas
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 04/57
Subject: Production ; Finland ; Inflation ; Economic forecasting
Title: Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan
Author/Editor:Sekine, Toshitaka
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 01/82
Subject: Inflation ; Japan ; Economic forecasting ; Forecasting models
Title: Modeling the World Economic Outlook at the IMF - A Historical Review
Author/Editor:Boughton, James M.
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 97/48
Subject: World Economic Outlook ; Fund ; Economic forecasting ; Economic models
Title: Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth
Author/Editor:Aiyar, Shekhar ; Tchakarov, Ivan
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 08/140
Subject: Thailand ; Economic growth ; Exports ; Economic forecasting
Title: The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output
Author/Editor:Tanner, Evan ; Carey, Kevin Joseph
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 05/207
Subject: Taxes ; Economic forecasting ; Fiscal policy ; Production
Title: A Perspective on Predicting Currency Crises
Author/Editor:Flood, Robert P. ; Marion, Nancy P. ; Yepez, Juan
lblSeries:Working Paper No. 10/227
Subject: Currencies ; Devaluation ; Economic forecasting ; Financial crisis ; Forecasting models

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