The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U.S. Balance of Payments

 
Author/Editor: Kandil, Magda E. ; Greene, Joshua E.
 
Publication Date: March 01, 2002
 
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
 
Summary: Real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciation appear cointegrated with the current and financial accounts of the U.S. balance of payments. On this basis, we estimate reduced form equations showing that expected changes and shocks to real GDP, the REER, energy prices, and growth in emerging market economies and other industrial countries explain much of the short-term variation in the U.S. current account balance, with the balance worsening as real GDP, energy prices, and the REER increase. In addition, foreign direct investment rises with real growth, while stock market prices affect the composition of capital inflows.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 02/45
Subject(s): Balance of payments | United States | Capital account | Current account | Financial sector

Author's Keyword(s): United States | Balance of Payments | current account | capital and financial account
 
English
Publication Date: March 01, 2002
ISBN/ISSN: 1934-7073 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA0452002 Pages: 43
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