Are Mexican Business Cycles Asymmetrical?

Author/Editor:

Andre O Santos

Publication Date:

September 1, 2002

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

We use the regime-switching econometric models in Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994) to study business cycles in Mexico. In particular, we characterize the ups and downs of economic activity in Mexico. As a proxy for economic activity, we use the Mexican quarterly industrial production index from the second quarter of 1972 to the third quarter of 1999. We allow the transition probabilities driving changes in economic activity to be a function of fiscal, financial, and external sector indicators. Our results show that recessions in Mexico are deeper and shorter than expansions.

Series:

Working Paper No. 02/150

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

September 1, 2002

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451856972/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1502002

Price:

$15.00 (Academic Rate:$15.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

33

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