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Author/Editor:
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Paiva, Claudio
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Publication Date:
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July 01, 2003
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Electronic Access:
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Free Full text
(PDF file size is 695KB).
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
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Summary:
This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil's trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.
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Order a print copy
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Series:
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Working Paper No. 03/140
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Subject(s):
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Trade | Brazil | Exchange rates | Economic models
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Author's Keyword(s):
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Trade | elasticities | exchange rate | cointegration models |
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English
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Publication Date:
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July 01, 2003
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ISBN/ISSN:
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1934-7073
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Format:
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Paper
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Stock No:
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WPIEA1402003
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Pages:
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22
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Price:
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US$15.00 )
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Please address any questions about this title to
publications@imf.org
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