Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets

 
Author/Editor: Danninger, Stephan
 
Publication Date: January 01, 2005
 
Electronic Access: Free Full text (PDF file size is 408KB).
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

 
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
 
Summary: Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possible and governments may understate revenue forecasts. A case study for Azerbaijan is presented in support of the former incentive motive.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 05/14
Subject(s): Revenues | Azerbaijan | Forecasting models

Author's Keyword(s): Revenue forecast
 
English
Publication Date: January 01, 2005
ISBN/ISSN: 1934-7073 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2005014 Pages: 20
Price:
US$15.00 (Academic Rate:
US$15.00 )
 
 
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org