Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates

Author/Editor:

Noriaki Kinoshita

Publication Date:

March 1, 2006

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of government debt tend to be small. However, an increase in government consumption and debt leads to a considerably larger effect. The paper also argues that, although the interest rate effects of pure crowding out may be limited, the economic impact of accumulating government debt cannot be ignored.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2006/063

Subject:

Financial services Government consumption Government debt management Long term interest rates National accounts Public debt Public financial management (PFM) Real interest rates

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2006

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451863239/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2006063

Pages:

25

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