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Author/Editor:
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Leigh, Daniel ; Olters, Jan-Peter
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Publication Date:
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August 01, 2006
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Electronic Access:
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Free Full text
(PDF file size is 474KB).
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
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Summary:
While models based on Friedman's (1957) permanent-income hypothesis can provide oilproducing countries with long-run fiscal targets, they usually abstract from short-run costs associated with consolidation. This paper proposes a model that takes such adjustment costs (or "habits") into account. Further operational realism is added by permitting differential interest rates on sovereign debt and financial assets. The approach is applied to Gabon, where oil reserves are expected to be exhausted in 30 years. The results suggest that Gabon's current fiscal-policy stance cannot be maintained, while the presence of habits justifies smoothing the bulk of the adjustment toward the sustainable level over three to five years.
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Order a print copy
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Series:
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Working Paper No. 06/193
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Subject(s):
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Fiscal policy | Gabon | Income | Investment | Natural resources | Economic models
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Author's Keyword(s):
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Sustainable fiscal policy | habit formation | permanent-income hypothesis | Gabon |
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