Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
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Summary:
This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper explores a range of financial and real variables that explain such PoDs across time. We find property price fluctuations and bank credit to be important explanatory factors. There is two-way interaction between these variables and a clearer relationship when the variables are entered as a deviation from trend. The lag structure between such developments and PoDs is long and varies widely across countries. The paper assesses the implications of these findings for economic policy.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2006/223
Subject:
Asset prices Bank credit Banking Credit Economic and financial statistics Financial statistics Land prices Money Prices
English
Publication Date:
September 1, 2006
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451864830/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2006223
Pages:
43
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