Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated

Author/Editor:

Pär Österholm ; Erik Hjalmarsson

Publication Date:

June 1, 2007

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

We investigate the properties of Johansen's (1988, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for cointegration under the empirically relevant situation of near-integrated variables. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we show that in a system with near-integrated variables, the probability of reaching an erroneous conclusion regarding the cointegrating rank of the system is generally substantially higher than the nominal size. The risk of concluding that completely unrelated series are cointegrated is therefore non-negligible. The spurious rejection rate can be reduced by performing additional tests of restrictions on the cointegrating vector(s), although it is still substantially larger than the nominal size.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2007/141

Subject:

Inflation Real exchange rates Vector autoregression Vector error correction models

English

Publication Date:

June 1, 2007

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451867053/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2007141

Pages:

19

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