External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?
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Summary:
This paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large share of Mexico's macroeconomic fluctuations after NAFTA. This partly reflects greater trade integration-but also Mexico's "Great Moderation," as the country escaped its former pattern of macro-financial crises. In this period, Mexico's output fluctuations have been closely synchronized with the U.S. cycle, with a large and rapid impact of U.S. shocks on Mexican growth.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2008/100
Subject:
Business cycles Exports Imports Industrial production Oil prices
English
Publication Date:
April 1, 2008
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451869613/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2008100
Pages:
31
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