Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian countries, consistent with an overall "flight to safety" effect. Estimates from GARCH models suggest that a 5 percentage point increase in mature market equity volatility generated an exchange rate depreciation of up to ½ percent. This sensitivity rose during the latter period in the sample, suggesting greater integration of Asian financial markets with global markets. Unconditional standard deviations estimated from these models also provide operational measures of "long-term" and "excess" volatility in forex markets. Long-run forex volatility declined as Asian economies settled down with generally stronger fundamentals in the post-crisis period to more flexible regimes along with a generally lower level of mature market volatility.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2008/208
Subject:
Currencies Currency markets Exchange rates Foreign exchange Stock markets
English
Publication Date:
September 1, 2008
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451870664/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2008208
Pages:
31
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