A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy
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Summary:
This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2008/278
Subject:
Central bank policy rate Inflation Output gap Potential output Real interest rates
English
Publication Date:
December 1, 2008
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451871364/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2008278
Pages:
54
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