Exposure to Real Estate Losses: Evidence from the US Banks

Author/Editor: Igan, Deniz ; Pinheiro, Marcelo
Publication Date: April 01, 2009
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Summary: We implement a three-step procedure to assess the extent of exposure to real estate in commercial banks. First, we demonstrate interest rates and income to be the major determinants of delinquency. Then, we adopt a stress testing approach to calculate the impact of any adverse changes in these determinants. This suggests that a 1.3 percentage point increase in mortgage interest rate leads to a 20 percent decrease in a typical bank's distance to default. Finally, we look at the cross-sectional differences and indentify the banks with rapid loan growth along with high cost-income ratio as the most vulnerable.
Series: Working Paper No. 09/79
Subject(s): Banking sector | United States | Housing | Commercial banks | Consumer credit | Commercial credit | Real estate prices | Payments arrears | Economic models

Author's Keyword(s): Residential and Commercial Real Estate | Delinquency | Distance to Default.
Publication Date: April 01, 2009
Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2009079 Pages: 33
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