How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA

Author/Editor:

Fabian Bornhorst

Publication Date:

September 1, 2009

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.

Series:

Working Paper No. 09/187

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

September 1, 2009

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451873344/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2009187

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

35

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