Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap

Author/Editor: Maliszewski, Wojciech
Publication Date: June 01, 2010
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.
Series: Working Paper No. 10/149
Frequency: Monthly
Subject(s): Economic growth | Vietnam | Production | Transition economies | Economic models

Publication Date: June 01, 2010
ISBN/ISSN: 9781455201327 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2010149 Pages: 1407
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
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