Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary : Results from a Large Bayesian VAR

Author/Editor:

Adina Popescu ; Alina Carare

Publication Date:

November 1, 2011

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

We document the transmission of monetary policy and risk-premium shocks in Hungary, by applying recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100 series, opening the "black box" of the transmission mechanism to provide the most comprehensive description to date of the impact of these two shocks on the economy under the inflation-targeting regime. We find novel evidence that most of the channels of transmission are operational in Hungary, in spite of large liability euroization and high foreign ownership of banks and corporations. Due to financial stability concerns, monetary policy responds procyclically to risk-premium shocks. We also find that the use of such a large panel of data improves inflation forecasting performance over smaller models and renders this model suitable for policy purposes.

Series:

Working Paper No. 11/259

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

November 1, 2011

ISBN/ISSN:

9781463923983/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2011259

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

49

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