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Author/Editor:
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Dabla-Norris, Era ; Bal-Gunduz, Yasemin
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Publication Date:
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November 02, 2012
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Electronic Access:
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Free Full text
(PDF file size is 1,586KB).
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
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Summary:
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.
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Order a print copy
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Series:
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Working Paper No. 12/264
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Subject(s):
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External shocks | Low-income developing countries | Economic growth | Economic models
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English
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Publication Date:
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November 02, 2012
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ISBN/ISSN:
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9781475528510/2227-8885
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Format:
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Paper
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Stock No:
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WPIEA2012264
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Pages:
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41
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Price:
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US$18.00 )
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Please address any questions about this title to
publications@imf.org
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