Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index

 
Author/Editor: Dabla-Norris, Era ; Bal-Gunduz, Yasemin
 
Publication Date: November 02, 2012
 
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Summary: This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis. 
 
Series: Working Paper No. 12/264
Subject(s): External shocks | Low-income developing countries | Economic growth | Economic models

 
English
Publication Date: November 02, 2012
ISBN/ISSN: 9781475528510/2227-8885 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2012264 Pages: 41
Price:
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
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