The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows: Evidence from Asia

Author/Editor:

Sonali Jain-Chandra ; Filiz D Unsal

Publication Date:

November 2, 2012

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2012/265

Subject:

Balance of payments Capital inflows Central bank policy rate Financial services Long term interest rates Short term interest rates Yield curve

English

Publication Date:

November 2, 2012

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475525823/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2012265

Pages:

19

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