On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : The Role of Storage

Author/Editor:

Deren Unalmis ; Filiz D Unsal ; Ibrahim Unalmis

Publication Date:

November 8, 2012

Electronic Access:

Free Full text (PDF file size is 1669 KB).Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.

Series:

Working Paper No. 12/270

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

November 8, 2012

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475586367/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2012270

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

41

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org