IMF Working Papers

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis: Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk

Author/Editor:

Andreas Jobst ; Dale F. Gray

Publication Date:

February 27, 2013

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2013/054

Subject:

Asset and liability management Asset valuation Contingent liabilities Debt default External debt Financial sector policy and analysis Financial statements Public financial management (PFM) Systemic risk