The Economics of Political Transitions : Implications for the Arab Spring

Author/Editor: Padamja Khandelwal ; Agustin Roitman
Publication Date: March 13, 2013
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.
Series: Working Paper No. 13/69
Subject(s): Political economy | Egypt | Tunisia | Yemen | Jordan | Libya | Morocco | Economic conditions | Economic growth | Transition economies

Publication Date: March 13, 2013
ISBN/ISSN: 9781475569643/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2013069 Pages: 13
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